Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Now, I should clarify. I am iffy trusting the Euro w/ this event. Overall, it is a great model. And if any model scores a coup, it would be the Euro. But, it is tough to say it has scored a coup when it has one solution over the Ohio and another over north Georgia in consecutive runs. But still, models are pretty amazing. PSUHoffman said it best when he mentioned that the models are nothing but mathematical equations. Pretty cool. In the grand scheme of things, the Euro has only moved a hiccup over the earth's surface when it waffles between runs. So, we are close to having some very reliable models. Chaos is not easy to model, and it does a great job. But it is also important to know model biases in order to interpret results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Now, I should clarify. I am iffy trusting the Euro w/ this event. Overall, it is a great model. And if any model scores a coup, it would be the Euro. But, it is tough to say it has scored a coup when it has one solution over the Ohio and another over north Georgia in consecutive runs. But still, models are pretty amazing. PSUHoffman said it best when he mentioned that the models are nothing but mathematical equations. Pretty cool. In the grand scheme of things, the Euro has only moved a hiccup over the earth's surface when it waffles between runs. So, we are close to having some very reliable models. Chaos is not easy to model, and it does a great job. But it is also important to know model biases in order to interpret results. Great write up. Understanding each models biases is important, and they all have them in some form or fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GGEM ensemble mean snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Now, I should clarify. I am iffy trusting the Euro w/ this event. Overall, it is a great model. And if any model scores a coup, it would be the Euro. But, it is tough to say it has scored a coup when it has one solution over the Ohio and another over north Georgia in consecutive runs. But still, models are pretty amazing. PSUHoffman said it best when he mentioned that the models are nothing but mathematical equations. Pretty cool. In the grand scheme of things, the Euro has only moved a hiccup over the earth's surface when it waffles between runs. So, we are close to having some very reliable models. Chaos is not easy to model, and it does a great job. But it is also important to know model biases in order to interpret results. Carvers, I just want to say that I've very much appreciated your analysis and insight this winter. Nice work bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Every solution produces something North of the 40 corridor. I really hope that the track most favorable for south of 40 happens. I've had now 17 inches of snow this year, I know spots south of 40 have struggled to get 3 or 4 total inches if that in some spots. Seems like Nino can be really tough in the Eastern Valley even in otherwise cold/snowy winters for the rest of the region, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Every solution produces something North of the 40 corridor. I really hope that the track most favorable for south of 40 happens. I've had now 17 inches of snow this year, I know spots south of 40 have struggled to get 3 or 4 total inches if that in some spots. Seems like Nino can be really tough in the Eastern Valley even in otherwise cold/snowy winters for the rest of the region, For clarification, is the North Knoxville community (Halls, Powell, Corryton, ect) included in the North of 40 area you speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Carvers, I just want to say that I've very much appreciated your analysis and insight this winter. Nice work bud! Thanks, man. But you all are what make this forum great. Had a blast watching the Euro roll last night. What I am most pleased with is seeing the board grow its membership. I can come on the board and get wx reports from all over the forum area. Having a bunch of people who like to talk weather is pretty awesome. Also, nice thread - been great tracking this storm and glad we have at least another day to do it! Over time, we will build an archive of storms specific to our area, and that will be a huge resource. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 For clarification, is the North Knoxville community (Halls, Powell, Corryton, ect) included in the North of 40 area you speak of? Yes, tight gradient across Knox county on the Euro. Probably has 3 inches in North Knox county but only 1.5 inches say out towards Watt Road. There is a microclimate in Northern Knoxville, Halls, Racoon Valley etc. Those ridges and up towards the Union County line generally do much better than South and deep West Knoxville. Seen it a lot when I worked in Knoxville for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Every solution produces something North of the 40 corridor. I really hope that the track most favorable for south of 40 happens. I've had now 17 inches of snow this year, I know spots south of 40 have struggled to get 3 or 4 total inches if that in some spots. Seems like Nino can be really tough in the Eastern Valley even in otherwise cold/snowy winters for the rest of the region, I just wonder if March holds some surprises. The mountains should have had more snow w/ this being a Nino. I can remember some great mtn snows during Nino years. I think the eastern Valley will have its chances come late February through mid-March. Nice to see the storm track be a southwest to northeast variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 For clarification, is the North Knoxville community (Halls, Powell, Corryton, ect) included in the North of 40 area you speak of? Runman, what the middle latitudes of the state need is for the precip to move in quick. That would hold temps in check and give you a chance at a decent thump of snow. If it is slower, we all are in trouble. Need a quick track like the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I just wonder if March holds some surprises. The mountains should have had more snow w/ this being a Nino. I can remember some great mtn snows during Nino years. I think the eastern Valley will have its chances come late February through mid-March. Nice to see the storm track be a southwest to northeast variety. I've had a few blanks in the 2000s and one or two in the 1990s. But even taking out 1993, between 1960 and 2000 I averaged 4.4 inches of snow in March/April. So there's always a chance. The entire region is usually in position through mid-March and elevated areas through Early April to get a wet snowy day, sort of like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GGEM ensemble mean snow: thanks. The cmc and it's ensembles have been the most consistent with this so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 At this time I feel confident on an inland miller A going east of the Apps. My only real concern now is temperature profile. It doesn't hurt having a little snow on the ground if we can keep it though the day today to help drive temps a little lower tonight for a tougher rebound tomorrow and a colder Sat night, making a tougher rebound for Sunday, and potentially helping a little at precip start Sunday night. If we get heavy precip through pre-dawn hours Sun morning and the low tracks around WPC forecast, then I feel confident that even down to very near if not including Chatt get appreciable accumulations and very difficult precip change overs especially around 40 and north maybe primary switch to sleet/snow mix less rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Also looking back at major models the GGEM was pretty dang accurate all the way back to 12Z yesterday on the extent of todays snow from our little clipper which seemed to catch a lot of people off guard especially south and east of town. 0Z as well was pretty accurate for today. GFS wasn't to me as accurate in its depiction in extent of coverage. GGEM may be better at sniffing northern stream energy, which is very important for our setup with this storm coming. Anyway just noticed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 At this time I feel confident on an inland miller A going east of the Apps. My only real concern now is temperature profile. It doesn't hurt having a little snow on the ground if we can keep it though the day today to help drive temps a little lower tonight for a tougher rebound tomorrow and a colder Sat night, making a tougher rebound for Sunday, and potentially helping a little at precip start Sunday night. If we get heavy precip through pre-dawn hours Sun morning and the low tracks around WPC forecast, then I feel confident that even down to very near if not including Chatt get appreciable accumulations and very difficult precip change overs especially around 40 and north maybe primary switch to sleet/snow mix less rain. Snow cover here hasn't gone anywhere today. It hasn't even melted off of the pine and cedar trees here. And for future reference, we were forecast to hit 41 today, and I'm sitting at 32 at 2:45 p.m. My hopes are rising again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Snow cover here hasn't gone anywhere today. It has not even melted off of the pine and cedar trees here. And for future reference, we were forecast to hit 41 today, and I'm sitting at 32 at 2:45 p.m. According to MRX, it's 32 at TYS. I believe it was also supposed to be in the 40s there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Snow cover here hasn't gone anywhere today. It has not even melted off of the pine and cedar trees here. And for future reference, we were forecast to hit 41 today, and I'm sitting at 32 at 2:45 p.m. Exactly! I think this is an issue playing into our coming storm. Over doing it on temps and eroding them too quickly. Remember for Knox it was supposed to switch to rain and warm dramatically today. KTYS sitting at freezing at 3PM.... Warm up is likely not going to happen today as originally forecast. Could see this same scenario Monday, cold was not eroded so easily with even moderate snows at times this morning but honestly mostly light snow. With potentially pre-dawn moderate to heavy snow with the coming storm I have some doubts about eroding the cold at least as far north as I-40. Not to mention I believe surface dew points Sun night will allow for some dynamic cooling for a time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Exactly! I think this is an issue playing into our coming storm. Over doing it on temps and eroding them too quickly. Remember for Knox it was supposed to switch to rain and warm dramatically today. KTYS sitting at freezing at 3PM.... Warm up is likely not going to happen today as originally forecast. Could see this same scenario Monday, cold was not eroded so easily with even moderate snows at times this morning but honestly mostly light snow. With potentially pre-dawn moderate to heavy snow with the coming storm I have some doubts about eroding the cold at least as far north as I-40. Not to mention I believe surface dew points Sun night will allow for some dynamic cooling for a time as well. I agree. And since this snowpack isn't going anywhere with the recharge of Arctic air coming in tonight, the models are probably clueless at the moment with low level temperatures. I guess it's a wait and see type of storm. At the very least, we could get a decent thump of frozen precipitation at the onset of the storm Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 EPS and control are a little south of the OP and very strong with the storm. On the control it passes by south of Chattanooga at 996, sitting east of Hickory at 992 in the next panel. EPS is further south and a little faster. At 84 it's at centered over the Alabama/Miss line at about the middle of the state. On the OP at 90 it was over north Central Miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't get the Euro Control in that it should be wrapping much more cold air into the backside of such a strong lp area, but it's not really doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like it has 28 members that don't cut, 11 that do cut, and the rest are off the reservation either off south Florida or way up in Illlinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like it has 28 members that don't cut, 11 that do cut, and the rest are off the reservation either off south Florida or way up in Illlinois. Thats encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like it has 28 members that don't cut, 11 that do cut, and the rest are off the reservation either off south Florida or way up in Illlinois. So basically, they have no clue. As Shawn said...encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Thanks, man. But you all are what make this forum great. Had a blast watching the Euro roll last night. What I am most pleased with is seeing the board grow its membership. I can come on the board and get wx reports from all over the forum area. Having a bunch of people who like to talk weather is pretty awesome. Also, nice thread - been great tracking this storm and glad we have at least another day to do it! Over time, we will build an archive of storms specific to our area, and that will be a huge resource.I hope to be able to share some good snow pictures with the forum like the January storm earlier this year. I'm up in White House Tennessee about 25 minutes from the Kentucky boarder and the euro has the bullseye of heaviest snow right in my area. To be honest though I really don't know what to except with this snow. But I do know the euro kept showing big snow amounts for our January storm when the gfs was trying to show lesser amounts at time. Euro was showing between 8-12 inches for north central Tennessee 4-5 days out and we ended up with 12.5. I must say I'm glad the euro is the one showing big amounts for this storm as I trust it more then other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Seems like all the WFO are now on the freezing rain/sleet band wagon. Not really sure I see that with this but hey, I guess it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18 nam @66 has the low way more north and east tn getting ice the lp is just below Memphis @ 1012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 @75 shows east tn in heavy snow temp drops from 37 to 33 from 69-75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The NAM blows through like Sherman crossing Atlanta. Event is over by Monday evening as the storm rolls almost due east from Central Mississippi. Out to 81 it looks like it's bound for Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Clowned out like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Lol at Sherman crossing Atlanta! Don't know if I've ever seen a deeper blue on tropical tidbits than it just showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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