Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GFS has a nice low track, nice initial snow hit, nice clown. Temps get warm but we can worry about that later. Good trend IMO. Thanks for the map, Stove. Textbook Miller A, inland runner track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Would appear the 12z CMC will hold to its track. Have not looked at snow totals. Might be a bit drier. But nice track through 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Stove, got a gem clown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Good runs... Saved by the kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Through hour 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Stove, got a gem clown? Hour 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMC FTW!!! Still got a long way to go though! Stove's comment about chains last night-well, yeah, you'd need them if the CMC is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 County level view at hour 90: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Sweet God. Doesn't look like temps are an issue here. O' Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 surface temps are torching (35-40) in Tennessee at hour 78. Guessing we stay snow due to rates at 32-33 then start melting almost immediately after. I don't know about you guys, but I'd be ok with that scenerio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The Canadian isn't backing down at all. The GFS wasn't too bad ended up with higher totals than past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 JB has mentioned one major aspect over and over again with the models in this system. That they warm the surface way more than they ever should with heavy precip falling. Even when we get rainers here I always seem to lock in a 33. To any worrying about precip amounts, a further south track is king. We have to have that even if it cuts into qpf. Otherwise we just spend the qpf raining off the snow that has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 How's the Ukie looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 How's the Ukie looking?same as last night.Where is stove with the cmc and Gfs ensemble mean snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 same as last night. Where is stove with the cmc and Gfs ensemble mean snow map? 12z GEFS mean: 12z GGEM ensemble maps haven't rolled out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looking similar to previous runs through 48 on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 2 inches or so down North of Nashville to Dyersburg by 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Northern third of TN getting a nice snow by hour 66. Especially north of Nashville, one spot has 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Surface torch west of the apps by hour 78. Low in central MS. Edit: The surface freezing line literally touches the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 By hour 90 the low is tracking over Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Well at least one Euro run over the last four days will likely be right. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yep, every other model maintained or went south, the Euro cuts and runs the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The little wave on the back side it what is keeping it from cutting on the other models I think. It's further behind on the Euro than the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Can anyone really trust the Euro at this time? It's not showing any consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yep, every other model maintained or went south, the Euro cuts and runs the Apps. 12z NAM was a bit north I thought, but have looked at so many models that it is beginning to blur things. But yeah, the Euro is on an island. I have seen it score from here. It dug a bit more than 0z in the Arklatex. When it does that, the slp gets stronger and becomes an Apps runner. Honestly, if we can just get it around the base of the Apps...we would do well. During the DC blizzard, it actually got this right, but several other models hinted at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Can anyone really trust the Euro at this time? It's not showing any consistency. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The little wave on the back side it what is keeping it from cutting on the other models I think. It's further behind on the Euro than the others. The clipper keeps the others south and acts as a kicker. Beginning to wonder if the Euro is having an issue w/ being to slow. It is a possible solution, but I am not buying it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The Euro is all front side thump. But it's a heavy front side thump. With the other deeper models we have a better shot at more snow throughout but with maybe less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The clipper keeps the others south and acts as a kicker. Beginning to wonder if the Euro is having an issue w/ being to slow. It is a possible solution, but I am not buying it right now. The most known bias of the Euro is holding energy back in these situations. It holds back the wave over East Texas and lets it strengthen, that keeps it further north and turns it left. Also holds that second piece back a little more than other models. Still gets down 3-6+ inches of snow north of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The most known bias of the Euro is holding energy back in these situations. It holds back the wave over East Texas and lets it strengthen, that keeps it further north and turns it left. Also holds that second piece back a little more than other models. Still gets down 3-6+ inches of snow north of 40. Also, if it is too slow w/ the clipper...that may not be kicking the slp and letting it did. You know, I have looked at the snow axis on the KY/TN border. It is south by about 50 miles. What is crazy, the Euro cut and we have more snow. So, yes there is a good thump of snow on the front end of things. What is missing is the Miller A track. Whether we get that or not, I am not sure. But I think this is an inland runner w/ some decent dynamics. Much more encouraged than yesterday that a decent winter even is coming to at least the eastern 2/3 of the state north of I40. Could just be a slop fest, but I am not too picky. I like winter weather in all forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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