Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'd rather have the Canadian model it seems most consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs still managed to give a good thump of snow to most people north of 40. Lots of swings and solutions still to come imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah the Canadian and ukie have been very consistent. I would wage bets on the Canadian above the GFS through its sheer consistent nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So according to the weather channel there is 2 lows a clipper and a reg storm they are not even over land yet so untill they are its gonna be had for any set track I'd say they don't even know what's gonan happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The 06 dgex at 84 shows heavy snow totals in eastern tn don't know if that means much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The 06 dgex at 84 shows heavy snow totals in eastern tn don't know if that means much It's the NAM extended at 06z. It's usually not the most reliable but it sorta of shows where that NAM run would end up at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFES has a similar path to the GFS. The snow mean actually increased though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So according to the weather channel there is 2 lows a clipper and a reg storm they are not even over land yet so untill they are its gonna be had for any set track I'd say they don't even know what's gonan happen. There is a front runner that heads to the Ohio Valley region. This is the system that may aid in building just enough confluence to push the trailer a little further south to help those that would like to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Para Euro was a similar track to the OP. It did have much better moisture advection out ahead of it an gave North Central Tennessee and Kentucky 8-10+ with 4-6 along the other border areas. Fell off quickly down towards the 40 corridor. Still turns everyone over to rain and probably washing a lot of that snow off, or at least compacts it quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Para Euro was a similar track to the OP. It did have much better moisture advection out ahead of it an gave North Central Tennessee and Kentucky 8-10+ with 4-6 along the other border areas. Fell off quickly down towards the 40 corridor. Still turns everyone over to rain and probably washing a lot of that snow off, or at least compacts it quite a bit. Was noticing the para was about 3-6 hours quicker with the low. Also, it showed multiple low centers (one in northwest GA, the other about 100 miles further southeast of that) at hour 96. To give reference, the operational has a broad area of low pressure back in central Alabama at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 We need the cmc ukie combo on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Patiently watching the 12 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 We need the cmc ukie combo on this. Or just the CMC, haha. I know the conversation has been around how much the Euro has been jumping around and how consistent the Canadian modeling has been, and rightfully so. I would like to point out the European modeling was tremendously consistent in the longer range with this system and around the time it started to lose its way, the Canadian locked in and hasn't really changed all that much. It doesn't mean the Canadian is right, but to this point it's been fascinating to watch this potential system evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Or just the CMC, haha. I know the conversation has been around how much the Euro has been jumping around and how consistent the Canadian modeling has been, and rightfully so. I would like to point out the European modeling was tremendously consistent in the longer range with this system and around the time it started to lose its way, the Canadian locked in and hasn't really changed all that much. It doesn't mean the Canadian is right, but to this point it's been fascinating to watch this potential system evolve. I fell out of love with the Euro about 4 years ago When it consistently showed a nice Miller a and the ukie and cmc had an apps runner. Well, the cmc ukie combo won that battle. Hopefully the same holds true, I have my doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12 nam not looking good for snow most snow in kentucky @ 75 allmrain temps above freezing the snow is in Virginia and carolinas seems faster then other runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's weird the low @ 84 is south east headed towards sc @ 1009 mb but shows no precip in tn. And temps in 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I was watching the location of the low on the NAM just then. Low was in central AL then went south to about Montgomery, then on to Columbus GA. That low track is way better than the GFS and more in line with the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I was watching the location of the low on the NAM just then. Low was in central AL then went south to about Montgomery, then on to Columbus GA. That low track is way better than the GFS and more in line with the CMC But will we get any snow that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Don't know, but that is an ok track I think, esp when it rounds the bend into SC. Main thing is it didn't cut west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Don't know, but that is an ok track I think, esp when it rounds the bend into SC. Main thing is it didn't cut west of the apps. I did see the uper level temps are dropping behind the low hopefully it will drop our temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I fell out of love with the Euro about 4 years ago When it consistently showed a nice Miller a and the ukie and cmc had an apps runner. Well, the cmc ukie combo won that battle. Hopefully the same holds true, I have my doubts. I remember that system and everyone on the Southeast forum dove off the cliff screaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nam was a ukie like track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nam was a ukie like track. Yep. Was just thinking the same thing. Also, very similar to the Canadian. Don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I was watching the location of the low on the NAM just then. Low was in central AL then went south to about Montgomery, then on to Columbus GA. That low track is way better than the GFS and more in line with the CMC Good track. Hope that holds. If 12z suite holds to the low road track, we will have a lot to talk about over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yep. Was just thinking the same thing. Also, very similar to the Canadian. Don't you think?looked like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 looked like it Not my own thoughts but from someone else, but NAM was a bit warm. I am more excited about the potential for a Miller A due to that. Hopefully it is in the right spot to bring our areas some nice totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs @ 90 looks like nam @ 84 its move south looks like we get snow at start and that's it according to gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GFS has a nice low track, nice initial snow hit, nice clown. Temps get warm but we can worry about that later. Good trend IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs is ukie like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looks like gem @0 and nam @12 and gfs @ 12 are getting into agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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