John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Another weird run. from 96 to 102 it strengthened 3 millibars and dropped due south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 @108 a 996mb low round the base of the Apps. Big change. Still too close to help us but back in the envelope of reason. It is the westward extension of the inland runner tonight. Good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 If you adjust temps a bit you a have winner, not a terribad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's rounding over the upstate of South Carolina by 108, similar to the Canadian from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 @114 the sub 990 slp pressure is in along the central VA/NC border. Well south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 On to the ensembles/control. I'd bet they're going to be slightly south of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 @120 it moves to eastern PA. Probably 150 miles east of the 12z track. That is about it. South and east. Good trend considering all other guidance is south and east of the 0z track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 MRX disco early morning ought to be an interesting read, or very boring. Could go either way. Punt continued vagueness or overnight liberal postulating... hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The snow axis runs along the TN/KY border up through eastern KY, WVA, western PA, western NY. It was in Canada at 12z. Some 6+" totals in south/central KY. The Apps now has 6+" totals which means it is seeing the Miller A component. Just a bit too close to the spine of the Apps on the lee side. Southwest VA and southeast KY have some 4-9" amounts. Very close to being good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Stacking tracks from North to South. 00z GFES - Still moved 500 miles SE from 18 to 00z. 00z Op Euro is furthest north of OP models. 00z GFS. 00z NAM. 00z Canadian 00z Canadian Ens 00z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Stacking tracks from North to South. 00z GFES - Still moved 500 miles SE from 18 to 00z. 00z Op Euro is furthest north of OP models. 00z GFS. 00z NAM. 00z Canadian 00z Canadian Ens 00z UKIE JMA is UKMET like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 WPC on their 10:30 pm update made no significant change to their track forecast. From Central Texas/NW Louisiana to the Mid-State of South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 How much does it show for the Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 How much does it show for the Valley? The Euro gives 2-4 inches north of 40 basically. Not much south of there. But it's on the northern edge of all the tracks right now. I'm curious now about the 12z runs tomorrow. We've had a trend of good 00z, bad 12z on the Euro and GFS. The Canadian, JMA and UKIE are pretty rock steady over the last 24 to 48 hours, even longer for the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 How much does it show for the Valley? Along the northern border(the length of it 2-5") but the improved track will help in the long run. Very similar to the Canadian but just north and west of it. Very close to being a nice run. We take that track and take our chances if it is a touch southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm buying the WPC forecast track, we are essentially now approaching 72 hours out WPC don't often miss or miss by much in that timeframe. If they still see that track I consider it a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm buying the WPC forecast track, we are essentially now approaching 72 hours out WPC don't often miss or miss by much in that timeframe. If they still see that track I consider it a safe bet. I agree w/ that track as well. Good middle of the road track and excellent for the forum. Would be nice to nail down that track so we can talk thermal profiles and precip types other than rain. But yes, agree w/ their track as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 EPS Control and Mean have a similar track to the OP. Mean snowfall is 3-5 inches North of 40 with the highest averages on the Northern Plateau, SW Va and Southern Kentucky. Around 2 inches just south of 40 with the 2 inch mean being Clarksville, just south of Nashville SE towards the Southern Plateau. Below that you quickly fall to 1.5/1/0.5 along the southern and far western Valley areas. Control run is more robust. 8-10 in SE Kentucky, 6-8 from Fentress County or so to Johnson County. Then amounts fall quickly towards 40 and the 2 inch line is just south of there with not much for areas south more than a full county south of the 40 corridor. Still a lot of spread on the members though. The extremes at 102 are a low in Central Illinois and a low just SW of Tampa Bay. At 108 there are members in Ohio and a few off the Southern tip of the West coast of Florida. As far west at 108 as Mississippi, as far east as 150 miles off Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just eyeballing it I think I counted 33 of 51 members that are as snowy or more so for the Valley than the OP. 15 of the 33 had amounts in excess of 10 inches for parts of Tennessee. Usually centered around the Northern Plateau/Northern Border counties. Kentucky saw quite a bit more members with heavy snow. One member had the entire state in the 10+ inch range almost but the snow line was basically the KY/TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Sounding like another possible big win for south central and southeast KY. #2 for the winter season for them. I'll need to let mom and pop know they better beat the crowds at Kroger in London, KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The GFS Ensemble mean averages looks similar to the Euro. Plateau does best on them. Northern/Central Plateau mean out at 3-5 inches. 3-4 along the border East of the Plateau. 2 inches Clarksville to Southern Plateau and up the Central Valley. On the individual members, 13 of the 20 are as snowy or more so than the 00z Op run of the GFS. Generally the Plateau and SW Virginia are the areas that have 6+ inch events on the individual members that are more snowy than the OP. This with the GFES being the furthest north of any major modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Canadian ensembles seem locked, same general snow orientation, heavier amounts when compared to the 12z snowfall ensembles. General uptick (slight) in the gefs snowfall output, but certainly not as pretty as our Canadian map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The GFS Ensemble mean averages looks similar to the Euro. Plateau does best on them. Northern/Central Plateau mean out at 3-5 inches. 3-4 along the border East of the Plateau. 2 inches Clarksville to Southern Plateau and up the Central Valley. On the individual members, 13 of the 20 are as snowy or more so than the 00z Op run of the GFS. Generally the Plateau and SW Virginia are the areas that have 6+ inch events on the individual members that are more snowy than the OP. This with the GFES being the furthest north of any major modeling. I hate that I fell asleep for those important runs. Thanks John and others for the great updates. I couldn't pull up the GFS ensembles on WxBell yet. The GFS was a step in the right direction and also the Euro. I think with yesterday's 12z the northern extent of the track was realized and we will see slight trends back to the southeast before a consensus is met. The Euro Control was better than the OP. Mainly this was because of the front end thump. The Control brought in more QPF into the cold air on the front side and kept the cold air in slightly longer. I'd like to see what the Para Euro says as well. Man o man I'm going to buy some stock in Tim Hortons if the Canadian is right. That run was perfect. Everything about it was perfect. We couldn't ask for a better storm around here as depicted by that model. The Canadian has been rock solid for days and hasn't wavered much at all. I think the NWS should weigh the Canadian too in their package. Sometimes this model is overlooked but you can't overlook its consistency this time. If I were to make a forecast right now I would weight the models in this order. 1) Canadian: Not because of the weenieism it shows but because of the consistency it has shown with regards to track and precip. 2) GFS: The GFS hasn't had too many wild swings in the past day of runs. It did trend north in 3 consecutive runs before the 0z but they were gradual shifts. I think the GFS could actually be very close to what actually happens with a slightly colder and further south low pressure track. 3) Euro: The King has struggled with this one showing wild swings in many back to back runs. Sometimes the Euro shows the storm before the other models before losing it and doing crazy stuff. I think it erroneously wants to track the low straight into the mountains. Normally these lows want to take the path of least resistance. Having a low going thru the mountains wouldn't fit that theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The 6z NAM is weaker and less amped on this run. This is out to 84 and there would be more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The 6z NAM is weaker and less amped on this run. This is out to 84 and there would be more to come. From the good folks at Nashville, rooting ever so hard against any snow yet again. I think they must ask mets that when they are doing hiring because ever since I have followed weather, going on 45 years now, they have always had the same stance.... 000 FXUS64 KOHX 120918 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 318 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SHORT TERM... TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN FROM THE MID MS VALLEY IS ALREADY GENERATING RADAR RETURNS OVER MID TN EARLY THIS MORNING...SO FAR MOSTLY VIRGA FROM THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ADVISORY...WITH A FLUFFY INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR AREAS AROUND LAFAYETTE...CELINA... LIVINGSTON AND JAMESTOWN. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL ALSO EXIST AS FAR WEST AS INTERSTATE 24...PROBABLY JUST A BRIEF DUSTING. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MORNING HOURS...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF AND TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTH WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WE WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY...AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO MID TN THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY...BUT QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH LOWS AGAIN THE TEENS. ON SUNDAY...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER OUR FAR NORTH COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE CHILLY 30S. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE SWINGS DOWN AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER TX. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL THEN BECOME A BIG EAST COAST STORM. AS THE BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO CAUSE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A WARMING LAYER ALOFT...RESULTING IN A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE MID STATE. THE BEST SHOT FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE ALONG THE NORTH TIER AND PLATEAU SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES THOUGH...INCLUDING THE PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS FEATURES...THERMAL PROFILES...AND EFFECTS SUCH AS WET BULBING AND DYNAMIC COOLING. BY DAYTIME MONDAY...MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARMER AIR AND A TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID. A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND STARTS TO LIFT UP THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...QUIET WX IS ON THE WAY WITH A WARMING TREND. IN FACT...IT WILL FEEL SPRING LIKE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 06 gfs 1006 lp going right up the mountains giving everyone rain. Reading the weather discussions on the NOAA site they can't even figure out what's gonna happen is it usually this hard to nail down a path ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 06 gfs 1006 lp going right up the mountains giving everyone rain. Reading the weather discussions on the NOAA site they can't even figure out what's gonna happen is it usually this hard to nail down a path ? Normally it isn't this hard to pin down a low pressure track. Normally it is between a few hundred miles that the models have differences. I really think the mountains have a play in the this. If the low develops further northwest then it has no other choice but to try to go to the west of the mountain chain and transfer to the coast. If it develops further southeast initially then it should want to track on the east side of the apps as a pure Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's all in the strength of the LP. The GPS doesn't rattle me too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's all in the strength of the LP. The GFS doesn't rattle me too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 There is still a huge spread with the EPS at 0z. Hard to believe. I don't think I have ever seen this many different low locations within 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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