Runman292 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 0z GGEM and it might still be snowing in east TN: Get chains on yer tires eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 When I look at all of the colors used to make that Canadian map, I am like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Sure can't wait for the European tonight!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 When the Tropical Tidbits map rolls, it will be very nice as well. Out to 90 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Sure can't wait for the European tonight!!! Yeah, I don't really have a choice at this point. Just have to make the coffee stronger in the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah, I don't really have a choice at this point. Just have to make the coffee stronger in the morning! Yep same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Lmao carver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hour 90: Canadian has KTYS at 16", KCHA at 13", KTRI at 9", and KBNA around 7" Of course still snowing at that point... So those will be higher if Dudley Do-Right would kick it in gear and finish running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 When I look at all of the colors used to make that Canadian map, I am like... I like yours because I've never seen it before, awesome. I have to post the classic though (sorry for banter in storm thread): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GGEM out to end of event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 What do y'all think, euro gonna cut big time north, roll over LeConte or go low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The 0z UKMET, 0z GEM, 12z JMA, and 0z GFS ops now show basically the same track. The 0z NAM seemed to be headed there w/ a weaker, flatter track. Nice portfolio for the storm this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Roll over LeConte or low are my bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What do y'all think, euro gonna cut big time north, roll over LeConte or go low? I'd be surprised if it folded completely. Seemed it was in error (maybe or maybe not?) in digging too far south in the Arklatex region. JB said it and I agree. Whether it corrects that I am not sure. Normally, the UKMET is a pretty good precursor. The UKMET is a perfect track. All of that said, I will take the Euro on a more southerly track but north of the UKMET and Canadian. Will hug the TN border and sneak around the base of the Apps and head north. Total guess. Seems like some new data was ingested tonight. Really looking to see its trend. I say it is south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMC shifted south and east. Here is today's 0z and yesterday's 12z.... 0z today 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still think there's lots of ups and downs, but damn the Canadian is consistent at giving the Tennessee Valley and Western NC a treat. That's like 4 days in a row with wide spread 8-14 inch totals over various parts of the Valley. I don't much care what the Euro shows at this point, until it can show something similar over at least a 3 run/24 hour period. Right now it's too all over the place. In the past 24 hours both the WPC and Joe Bastardi have said it's Op run wasn't worth putting in their forecast package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Still think there's lots of ups and downs, but damn the Canadian is consistent at giving the Tennessee Valley and Western NC a treat. That's like 4 days in a row with wide spread 8-14 inch totals over various parts of the Valley. I don't much care what the Euro shows at this point, until it can show something similar over at least a 3 run/24 hour period. Right now it's too all over the place. In the past 24 hours both the WPC and Joe Bastardi have said it's Op run wasn't worth putting in their forecast package. Yep, and now that the 0z NAM is showing a flatter and weaker system at 60h...it is on an island if it goes west again tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 @ 30...things look similar. New feature is a 1027 meso high over the eastern Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 @36 moisture streaking southeastward out of North Dakota. At first glance, appears a hair quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What do y'all think, euro gonna cut big time north, roll over LeConte or go low? Stove I'm going with a roll over LeConte with the very unscientific reasoning that the Euro has been our Crazy Uncle Harold of weather models with this storm and I see no reason for it to change at this juncture. Meanwhile I'm lurking and waiting on Crazy Uncle Harold just like everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Stove I'm going with a roll over LeConte with the very unscientific reasoning that the Euro has been our Crazy Uncle Harold of weather models with this storm and I see no reason for it to change at this juncture. Meanwhile I'm lurking and waiting on Crazy Uncle Harold just like everyone else. I love me some skelton up in these late night euro threads, your avatar kills me every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 @54 The energy in the Plains might be 50 miles east of 12z. Might not allow it to dig as much. Overall, very similar to 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 72 1004 in deep South Texas. Secondary Center near Austin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 @78, more progressive but the HP is scooting in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Heavy snow axis is well south of 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 At hour 84 north middle TN and upper cumberland are good for 2-4 south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 @84 meso high back over north Georgia. Seems a tad flatter. Still very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 @ 96 It is weaker, south, and flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just south of the Mountain Parkway in Kentucky is getting crushed this run. Definitely south, still pretty wound up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 @102 plenty of waa, but the key here. The low is about 150 miles south. This is going around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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