Runman292 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Anyone up for a sleet storm North of I-40 on Monday? Lol. Here's a new graphic posted on MRX's Facebook page: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The huge shifts actually kind of make sense with the setup ; either shunted south under the HP or nw around it's backside So, not much way of an in between as it would be going into the HP, I.m.o.. Timing is the biggest deal here as the deterministic factor of which road it takes, unless of course it's just a weak wave as it then may stay south regardless.. Gut tells me westerly track will be the outcome, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Anyone up for a sleet storm North of I-40 on Monday? Lol. Here's a new graphic posted on MRX's Facebook page: I love sleet! Best sledding evar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I love sleet! Best sledding evar. Is sleet really that good for sledding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Is sleet really that good for sledding? Yes, pure ice is faster but it's no fun playing defense when kids are flying down the hill at mach 5. With sleet you have more controlled speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 0Z NAM has the High placed in NY at hour 60 rather than GFS in WV and then scooting off the coast... Me thinks this may be better. Edit: NAM has double barrel Highs NY and NC at H72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Which NAM do I use? 4, 12, or 32km? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Which NAM do I use? 4, 12, or 32km? 32 Km is better for looking at larger features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nam is in central Mississippi, holding onto snow north of 40 all the way through 84. Starts snowing on the Nam by hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 32k NAM is always stingy on precip of any kind it seems. Anyone know why? At any rate the 12k NAM is the only other one that goes out to our time period. 4K stops at 60hrs. 12k looked a lot better to me. I saw the double barrel high in NY and NC. Also saw a 1019H in AR? Is that possible? That's almost a weak low pressure lol. Meso High? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The NAM is faster than the GFS. Let's more precip catch cold. The high isn't nearly as far east and that shunts the NAM further south. Extrapolated, if it keeps moving that fast the low won't likely have a chance to cut into the wedge and will be forced under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM is also at 1014 or so with the LP where the GFS was at 1002. Weaker and flat is the best hope we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 0z NAM is faster and south of say the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 32k NAM is always stingy on precip of any kind it seems. Anyone know why? At any rate the 12k NAM is the only other one that goes out to our time period. 4K stops at 60hrs. 12k looked a lot better to me. I saw the double barrel high in NY and NC. Also saw a 1019H in AR? Is that possible? That's almost a weak low pressure lol. Meso High? I don't like either 32K or 12K for precip, 32 is always underdone and 12K is always overdone to me. I hate relying on NAM for qpf I just watch feature placements with it and fill in the blanks on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nam is a lot flatter that won't cut west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 And we have to remember the NAM at 84 is less than accurate. Nice to see a short range model take the low road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nam is a lot flatter that won't cut west of the apps. Doubtful it would w that run...looks nothing like the Euro in terms of being amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nam is a lot flatter that won't cut west of the apps. Saw u mentioned that was a red flag(in the other forum)....how so? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Saw u mentioned that was a red flag(in the other forum)....how so? Interesting.usually at that range the nam is over amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 usually at that range the nam is over amped. Anything we can take from the flatter solution? Think it may be even flatter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Anything we can take from the flatter solution? Think it may be even flatter?it could. The ukie tonight Should be very telling. There is also a lot of spread on the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 usually at that range the nam is over amped. The rule from a few years ago around here was to cut all NAM clowns in half. It does seem to usually be over amped at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Anyone up for extrapolating the RGEM that's rolling out, relative to the other runs' setups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 it could. The ukie tonight Should be very telling. There is also a lot of spread on the Euro ensembles. The GFES had members in the Northern Gulf and in Michigan. Huge huge spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Anyone up for extrapolating the RGEM that's rolling out, relative to the other runs' setups? Virtually identical to 18Z in regards to northern stream placement and strength at similar hours/frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 0z 84 hour NAM snow (for what it's worth, understanding the limitations of the NAM at this hour and the fact that the storm is just getting going) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs much different with high placement so far. Was much faster moving it south east at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 0Z GFS High placement further north at 48H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Mirror image of each other by the next panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 66 h on gfs shows shows lp Texas panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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