JayCee Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Think a good bit of that will be cold chasing rain as heights crash. Backside snow is tough to predict. I am holding out hope for a quick front end thump of snow before it goes to rain. Let's hope trends reverse at 0z. Yes, the last "backside" event didn't live up to expectations. I guess it depends on how wound up the storm gets as it passes to our east, and how long it lingers. Overall, I'm losing my excitement about this event. But, oh well, there is still late February and March. Winter isn't done yet. Heading to the Blue Moose in Pigeon Forge to eat wings with friends, and have a beer or two. One way to lessen the sting of being scorned by a snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hang in there Carvers, the fun is just beginning! Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? LOL. As I look at the models...maybe the one thing I can see is that the Euro and GFS are now utilizing two pieces of energy. It is a possible(a longshot) that scenario may not be sorted out quite yet. The main thing is we need the cold or a Miller A. The cold is waning due to the low being stronger/slower and the Miller A is looking more like a long shot. No shame in letting Science run the show. 0z will tell the tale in terms of continuity. It would be rare to see a GFS/Euro/Para Euro/NAM combo get trumped by the JMA and GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yes, the last "backside" event didn't live up to expectations. I guess it depends on how wound up the storm gets as it passes to our east, and how long it lingers. Overall, I'm losing my excitement about this event. But, oh well, there is still late February and March. Winter isn't done yet. Heading to the Blue Moose in Pigeon Forge to eat wings with friends, and have a beer or two. One way to lessen the sting of being scorned by a snow storm. There you go, man. Enjoy that! I agree, winter is not over. Be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 LOL. As I look at the models...maybe the one thing I can see is that the Euro and GFS are now utilizing two pieces of energy. It is a possible(a longshot) that scenario may not be sorted out quite yet. The main thing is we need the cold or a Miller A. The cold is waning due to the low being stronger/slower and the Miller A is looking more like a long shot. No shame in letting Science run the show. 0z will tell the tale in terms of continuity. It would be rare to see a GFS/Euro/Para Euro/NAM combo get trumped by the JMA and GEM. A lot can happen in 4 days my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm with John on this. There's just too much uncertainty to assume that the models will nail it soon. My realistic hope is that we get a good front end thump of snow before changing to rain. Or that the cold can hang-on just long enough. In NE TN where I live, sometimes that can happen. Like I said, the models have put a new solution on the table w/ two pieces of energy now in play. That may not be sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I agree with John that it's too early right now to give up on this, though I also agree with Carver. By 12Z tomorrow we will have a much more firm clue. Also remember this is the 18Z suites, not exactly the suites I hang my hat on generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 LOL. As I look at the models...maybe the one thing I can see is that the Euro and GFS are now utilizing two pieces of energy. It is a possible(a longshot) that scenario may not be sorted out quite yet. The main thing is we need the cold or a Miller A. The cold is waning due to the low being stronger/slower and the Miller A is looking more like a long shot. No shame in letting Science run the show. 0z will tell the tale in terms of continuity. It would be rare to see a GFS/Euro/Para Euro/NAM combo get trumped by the JMA and GEM. It wouldn't quite be that though. EPS/Control/GFS para/GFES/GGEM/GGEMENS/UKIE/JMA all show a miller A/southern track. That's vs the OP Euro/Para Euro/GFS. All of whom are staggering around like a drunk uncle on storm placement in the last 24 hours. The op Euro is almost unusable, it's been all over the place in the last 24-36 hours with almost no support from it's ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 A lot can happen in 4 days my friend. That Rambo? Love those movies. We will see. I am in this to 0z. We will see how it rolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 There you go, man. Enjoy that! I agree, winter is not over. Be safe! Will do! Ready to chow down on some good ole comfort food. I'll have a wing for all my fellow weather fanatics here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It wouldn't quite be that though. EPS/Control/GFS para/GFES/GGEM/GGEMENS/UKIE/JMA all show a miller A/southern track. That's vs the OP Euro/Para Euro/GFS. All of whom are staggering around like a drunk uncle on storm placement in the last 24 hours. The op Euro is almost unusable, it's been all over the place in the last 24-36 hours with almost no support from it's ensembles. John, I think the others are pulling out the white flag, lol. I'm not giving up on a storm 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It wouldn't quite be that though. EPS/Control/GFS para/GFES/GGEM/GGEMENS/UKIE/JMA all show a miller A/southern track. That's vs the OP Euro/Para Euro/GFS. All of whom are staggering around like a drunk uncle on storm placement in the last 24 hours. The op Euro is almost unusable, it's been all over the place in the last 24-36 hours with almost no support from it's ensembles. Time will tell. Trends matter inside of 84 hours. Generally, I don't use ensembles once inside that time frame. The trends on the op have more weight in my book. But you all are making too much of this... At some point I have to decide if I want to dedicate my time to a storm that IMO is on the ropes. Indeed, there is some support for a better solution. That is why I will wait to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 John, I think the others are pulling out the white flag, lol. I'm not giving up on a storm 4 days out. It is not a white flag...and this is not battle. Just where we want to put our time. It is actually inside of four days right now. The western forum area is set for Sunday some time. Tomorrow evening the short range models will have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Red flags fly for me when there is a decided and rather large jump in modeling. The Ukie went this way for a couple of days and even though it has also changed dramatically, might have been a warning shot. Time will tell, but usually big jumps like this don't go back within 4 to 5 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It is not a white flag...and this is not battle. Just where we want to put our time. It is actually inside of four days right now. The western forum area is set for Sunday some time. Tomorrow evening the short range models will have it. I was just joking around with the white flag comment, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Red flags fly for me when there is a decided and rather large jump in modeling. The Ukie went this way for a couple of days and even though it has also changed dramatically, might have been a warning shot. Time will tell, but usually big jumps like this don't go back within 4 to 5 days.. Which big jump though? The Euro in the last 24 hours went 800 miles north, 600 south then 250 north. The GFS didn't even have the low that moves by south of us 36 hours ago. Just a washed out weakening northern stream system. It has proceeded to have big shifts both south and north in the last 24 hours. The UKIE moved 700 miles or more. Which shift or jump do we trust? I personally don't trust any of them. No matter what modeling shows tonight I still won't trust them. Maybe by 00z Saturday if they are consistent I will trust them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Red flags fly for me when there is a decided and rather large jump in modeling. The Ukie went this way for a couple of days and even though it has also changed dramatically, might have been a warning shot. Time will tell, but usually big jumps like this don't go back within 4 to 5 days..what once looked so promising for so many runs sure went down the toilet quick. It looks like the hunt for the I-95 runner will continue, along with finding Bigfoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 In the continuing theater of the odd, the 18z ensembles jumped 800 miles and are waaaaaay north and west of the op. Complete 180. I don't see how models nail west coast and mid west events a week or 10 days out but are literally all over the map with eastern systems. Especially southern origin systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 In the continuing theater of the odd, the 18z ensembles jumped 800 miles and are waaaaaay north and west of the op. Complete 180. I don't see how models nail west coast and mid west events a week or 10 days out but are literally all over the map with eastern systems. Especially southern origin systems. Yep, I'm definitely hopping on the Uncertainty bandwagon for now. I just can't trust any of these models at this time. The only model that has had the most consistency is the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 In the continuing theater of the odd, the 18z ensembles jumped 800 miles and are waaaaaay north and west of the op. Complete 180. I don't see how models nail west coast and mid west events a week or 10 days out but are literally all over the map with eastern systems. Especially southern origin systems.they sure nailed that blizzard for the mid Atlantic from 8 days out. This really is frustrating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Which big jump though? The Euro in the last 24 hours went 800 miles north, 600 south then 250 north. The GFS didn't even have the low that moves by south of us 36 hours ago. Just a washed out weakening northern stream system. It has proceeded to have big shifts both south and north in the last 24 hours. The UKIE moved 700 miles or more. Which shift or jump do we trust? I personally don't trust any of them. No matter what modeling shows tonight I still won't trust them. Maybe by 00z Saturday if they are consistent I will trust them. I have literally been following this potential since day 12. The euro and other modeling had been consistently showing nice potential for this system until the last 24-48 hours. All I needed to see was the euro op and para being close matches inside of day 5. The big high has nothing to lock it in. Our only chance is a faster system with stout WAA snows before getting blasted by more impressive warming with the main low winding up too soon and shooting north, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Really hoping this one pans out. To date my grade for this winter in my area is a solid D- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't know what the final solution will be, but the amazing shifts in the models will be memorable. The Euro, UKIE and GFS ens have all had 800 mile jumps in the last 36 hours of their various runs. Maybe that would be understandable 9 days out, but within 5 it's frustrating. Especially given that it's nailed big storm after big storm for the other parts of the country from 7+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z NAM. Check it out on Tropical Tidbits. Different or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I don't know what the final solution will be, but the amazing shifts in the models will be memorable. The Euro, UKIE and GFS ens have all had 800 mile jumps in the last 36 hours of their various runs. Maybe that would be understandable 9 days out, but within 5 it's frustrating. Especially given that it's nailed big storm after big storm for the other parts of the country from 7+ days out.totally agreed. Unfortunately I think we end up with a storm that is too amped and messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18z NAM. Check it out on Tropical Tidbits. Different or not? Not sure what I'm looking for on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Biggest question of the night, will the ukie fold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Way different than GFS to me. Has the Sunday system on the front end-the solution that the other models had before today. It's the NAM at the end of its range though, but it has been fairly good here lately. We'll see in a minute if it keeps that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Biggest question of the night, will the ukie fold? You see the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You see the 18z NAM?yeah, more of a front runner and less of an amped runner I would assume. Its similar to what jb is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It is certainly different. The surface low hasn't really formed in TX yet at 84 but you can see the beginning of formation. The northern stream was way out ahead. 0Z NAM is running now be interesting to see how it falls in respect to 18Z and the GFS at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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