Vol Man Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 From JB on Twitter... Experimental FIM which was the king of blizzard IMO in closest agreement with storm blend idea I use 4 next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z Gfs para is closer to the ukie Is the Para going to replace the current GFS at some point? That track is basically Mobile to Savannah to Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Is the Para going to replace the current GFS at some point?yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 John, do you think the little system tonight and tomorrow is affecting any of the models? Its just seemed to strengthen a little over the last 24 hours or so.... I wouldn't think it will much but everything likely effects almost everything else that is coming after it to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 yes I thought so, but had thought it was supposed to last year and wasn't sure what had happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The Para is so far south that most of Tennessee gets hardly any precip at all. East would get .3 to .4 of snow. About .10-.15 Middle and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z Gfs para is closer to the ukie Here is the qpf map for the 12z para GFS. You can see the track. Bout right where we want it. Will allow for the nw jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 As you all can see, the 12z suite left plenty of options on the table for like the entire eastern half of the lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Just got around to looking at the Para Euro from 00z last night. It was a big hit for all of Tennessee except for the far SW. Highland Rim, NE and Plateau go 6-10+ on it. Not sure when the 12z Euro Para will be out. It seems to take 6-8 hours after the OP occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Here is the qpf map for the 12z para GFS. You can see the track. Bout right where we want it. Will allow for the nw jog. image.jpg Quite a bit more precip on the NCEP site than wxbell was showing. Especially middle and west Tennessee. The 540 is well south of the entire state throughout the event. 850s would be good too, especially north of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Here is the qpf map for the 12z para GFS. You can see the track. Bout right where we want it. Will allow for the nw jog. image.jpg yeah it will probably big North but hopefully not as far as the regular Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z GFS is rolling. Through 84 it's about 150 miles SE with the storm in Texas vs 12z. Started further south but instead of moving SE like 12z it moved due east and is in the same spot, just a bit further East at 96. Winding up, much stronger and going to cut, maybe right through central Tennessee. Didn't cut but it's sitting over the Mountains around Polk or Monroe county at 999. Very similar to the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yep its saying 50's in Chattanooga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Raining in Ohio and Pennsylvania on this run. Back side is snowing in NW Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Goes directly across the Smokies into NC, gaining strength, 995 just north of Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I am going to watch the 0z suite and then tap out on this system if it holds to recent trends. Rally cap time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ends up with heavy back side snow and drops 2-4 inches. I don't know what the final solution will be, but I have not in my recollection seen a system move directly over the Smokies and gain strength while doing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hide the women and children Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I am going to watch the 0z suite and then tap out on this system if it holds to recent trends. Rally cap time. I would say it's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay early to tap out. The system is between Japan and the Aleutians right now. Sunday's model runs will still be viable for predicting this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Almost time for the 12z Euro Para. Curious what it will show today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I would say it's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay early to tap out. The system is between Japan and the Aleutians right now. Sunday's model runs will still be viable for predicting this one. NAM @ 84(yeah, not great at that range) looks exactly like the 18z GFS, 12z Euro, and 12z Para. I will watch one more suite only because the UKMET has not folded nor the Canadian. Most major models are slowing the system down and the cold air is just gone. But will give it one more suite. I would say by 12z tomorrow there will be strong consensus. Also, noticed that the energy for this is diving a bit more westward which is giving it room to pull west of the Apps. A slider into the Apps or a cutter is counter intuitive, but it does happen sometimes. Anyway, will give it one more look and then it is time to take a break. Kind of holding out hope we pick up a couple of inches tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Almost time for the 12z Euro Para. Curious what it will show today Looks exactly like the Euro op. (edit) Meaning it means no snow for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Ends up with heavy back side snow and drops 2-4 inches. I don't know what the final solution will be, but I have not in my recollection seen a system move directly over the Smokies and gain strength while doing it. Thanks, John, for keeping us up on all of the model madness. Much appreciated. While I was drooling over the snow smack down a few models ago, I can live with a good 2-4 inch back side slider. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Looks exactly like the Euro op.its even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Thanks, John, for keeping us up on all of the model madness. Much appreciated. While I was drooling over the snow smack down a few models ago, I can live with a good 2-4 inch back side slider. Better than nothing. Think a good bit of that will be cold chasing rain as heights crash. Backside snow is tough to predict. I am holding out hope for a quick front end thump of snow before it goes to rain. Let's hope trends reverse at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 its even worse. Well, yes it is. I was trying to lighten the blow. When the snow axis in Detroit, tough to get it back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 NAM @ 84(yeah, not great at that range) looks exactly like the 18z GFS, 12z Euro, and 12z Para. I will watch one more suite only because the UKMET has not folded nor the Canadian. Most major models are slowing the system down and the cold air is just gone. But will give it one more suite. I would say by 12z tomorrow there will be strong consensus. Also, noticed that the energy for this is diving a bit more westward which is giving it room to pull west of the Apps. A slider into the Apps or a cutter is counter intuitive, but it does happen sometimes. Anyway, will give it one more look and then it is time to take a break. Kind of holding out hope we pick up a couple of inches tomorrow. Hang in there Carvers, the fun is just beginning! Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Thanks Carver! Didn't know it had come out yet. Well, guess we'll take what we can get. Be it 2-4in of backside slop, or rain. It's been a pretty good winter snow wise from about me up to you guys at TRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I would say it's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay early to tap out. The system is between Japan and the Aleutians right now. Sunday's model runs will still be viable for predicting this one. I'm with John on this. There's just too much uncertainty to assume that the models will nail it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Almost time for the 12z Euro Para. Curious what it will show today It was similar to the OP. Which is 2-4 inches across a good portion of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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