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Potential Big Dog Snow Event February 15th


Stovepipe

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  On 2/13/2016 at 4:08 AM, 1234snow said:

The 0z GFS is a flooding threat!!!! 2.5-4" of QPF!

 

Was way slower...not sure I am buying that run yet.  Euro and GFS both like to cut over the southern Apps.  That is pretty strange.  The Nino could be forcing this north a bit.  All winter systems have trended north and west at the last minute. 

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  On 2/13/2016 at 4:12 AM, Carvers Gap said:

Was way slower...not sure I am buying that run yet. Euro and GFS both like to cut over the southern Apps. That is pretty strange. The Nino could be forcing this north a bit. All winter systems have trended north and west at the last minute.

Carvers, I can never remember a storm having this many wild variations this close to an event. The front end thump is being modeled pretty closely and then the options diverge and are different on every run. I think though that this storm will be 40% snow and 60% rain north of 1-40 and 30% snow and 70 % rain south of that. Pretty much every model does show 3-6 inches of snow north of 1-40 on the initial thumb. I think south of that can get a few inches too. Thank goodness for this cold airmass already in place or we might be looking at an all rain storm. I wonder if the model physics (or a lack thereof) have anything to do with some runs wanting to barrel the low straight into the mountains? With that being said even with a track southeast of the mountains is going to give us a good period of rain.

The 0z GFS somehow came up with this.

84a70361136a27aec2e8ba7b5561fd8d.jpg

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  On 2/13/2016 at 4:52 AM, Runman292 said:

Unfortunately, the high snow totals for the Valley are no longer there.

 

If we are lucky enough to have that verify, 5 to 6 inches of snow in Knox county this winter would be friggin amazing.  Even if it did get rained away a few hours later. 

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  On 2/13/2016 at 4:32 AM, Mrwolf1972 said:

What's the chances of the Canadian being right. I mean the Canadian is loving Tennessee with snow for another run.

 

A good question...I will simply say what DT would say, "How often does the Canadian verify better than the Euro?"  

 

The CMC has been decent this winter...but w/ the NAM, GFS, and Euro at 0z sitting northwest of its track I doubt the Canadian scores a coup.  The JMA is with it though.  Anyone know what the 0z UKMET looks like?  All of that said, if the kicker is that close in real life, the Canadian is correct.  If it hangs back, the system will be an Apps runner IMO with a good front end snow dump.

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