Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The Euro and it's ensembles have been consistent for 5 days or so on a significant event. The Canadian as been on board for a couple of runs. The GFS is beginning to come around. This may be my first time starting a storm thread so the mojo is uncertain. Regardless, let's reel this one in! The 12z GGEM: 12z GFS: 12z Euro had most of TN at 6+ and many areas 10+. 12z Euro control run puts all of TN at 4+ with 6+ eastern half, 10+ Chatt, North GA, mountains, and TRI. The mean is a solid 2-5 across the same areas (except mountains over 6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The Euro control looked very good but the mean was less impressive. The only places with 6+ on the mean was a few spots in the Mountains. Some members have big hits and some don't have anything much at all. Very long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 I'm adding John's post from the MRX AFD: OVERALL...THE COLD WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKWITH THE SYSTEM BREWING EARLY NEXT WEEK BEING THE MAIN HEADLINE INTHE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TO DIFFER WITH THE SYSTEMEARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ARE BEGINNING TO COME CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS.ARCTIC AR WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS MENTIONED EARLIER.ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINSWITH A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELSINDICATE THAT THE TROUGHS WILL PARTIALLY PHASE TO THE WEST OF THEAREA WITH PRECIP SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFS IS NOT SHOWINGMUCH IN THE WAY OF CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM. WARM AIR ADVECTIONIN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP PRECIP. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A STRONGWEDGE IS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITHTEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW BUT QPFAMOUNTS ARE LIGHT COMPARED TO THE OTHER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. ON THEOTHER HAND...THE ECMWF...GEM AND SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERSINDICATE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH A LOW TRACKING ALONGTHE NORTHERN GULF. IF THIS WERE THE CASE...THERE WOULD BE MUCH MOREMOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM. THESE MODELS INDICATESIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SEVERALDETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OF THE MANY DETAILSIS THAT WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE 850 MBTEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE. THIS COULD BE ENOUGHTO CAUSE COMPLICATIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE SYSTEM STILL 6DAYS OUT...WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH JUST RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS.ALSO...KEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH EVERYMODEL RUN INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS BETWEEN NOW ANDMONDAY BUT THINGS HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-40 DUE TO THEPOTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW...WILL ADD THEMENTION OF SNOW INTO THE HWO AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDSOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yes, the last big time snow storm event in January was always a big question mark for me due to the evolution and interaction of the upper level energy and coastal surface low, which spelled doom as a "down sloping" event for the Valley. Granted, that system was dynamic enough that the Valley still got some decent snow totals in areas. But it's this upcoming system that has me excited for some real significant totals. Cold air will be in place. Plenty of moisture and very good placement of the parent upper vortex. I think this could be a really big producer for a large portion of the upper Valley, especially East Tennessee. Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z Euro EPS member snow totals: TYS32/51 - 2+ inches12/51 - 6+ inches7/51 - 10+ inches1/51 - Over a footMean - 4 inchesOp - 7 inchesBNA34/51 - 2+ inches9/51 - 6+ inches5/51 - 10+ inches2/51 - Over a footMean - 4 inchesOp - 9 inchesMEM6/51 - 2+ inches3/51 - 6+ inches1/51 - 10+ inches1/51 - Over a footMean - 1 inchOp - 0 inchesCSV41/51 - 2+ inches14/51 - 6+ inches9/51 - 10+ inches4/51 - Over a foot*Mean - 6 inchesOp - 14 inchesCHA29/51 - 2+ inches11/51 - 6+ inches5/51 - 10+ inches1/51 - Over a footMean - 3.5 inchesOp - 4.5 inchesTRI40/51 - 2+ inches17/51 - 6+ inches6/51 - 10+ inches0/51 - Over a footMean - 4.8 inchesOp - 9 inches *CSV had a member with over 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I love the placement of the upper level energy on this one. The moisture stream is centered over the southern Appalachians. Very little warm nose with plenty of cold in place 850 up. This is the one to throw your money at if your wanting to bet on something exciting in the model runs 5 to 6 days out. Still plenty of time, of course, but this is looking really good good good right now. Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z Euro EPS member snow totals: TYS 32/51 - 2+ inches 12/51 - 6+ inches 7/51 - 10+ inches 1/51 - Over a foot Mean - 4 inches Op - 7 inches BNA 34/51 - 2+ inches 9/51 - 6+ inches 5/51 - 10+ inches 2/51 - Over a foot Mean - 4 inches Op - 9 inches MEM 6/51 - 2+ inches 3/51 - 6+ inches 1/51 - 10+ inches 1/51 - Over a foot Mean - 1 inch Op - 0 inches CSV 41/51 - 2+ inches 14/51 - 6+ inches 9/51 - 10+ inches 4/51 - Over a foot* Mean - 6 inches Op - 14 inches CHA 29/51 - 2+ inches 11/51 - 6+ inches 5/51 - 10+ inches 1/51 - Over a foot Mean - 3.5 inches Op - 4.5 inches TRI 40/51 - 2+ inches 17/51 - 6+ inches 6/51 - 10+ inches 0/51 - Over a foot Mean - 4.8 inches Op - 9 inches *CSV had a member with over 2 feet of snow. I like that chart format. Thanks, Stovepipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 18z GFS which has struggled mightily with storms this winter(JB had an article today about it) has a short wave that basically is moisture starved and dies a slow death as it crosses the Valley. I think that is unlikely FWIW, but that is a possible solution. The GFS I am less concerned about...I would like to see the UKMET on board. Stil a ways out, but good trends in general today. The Euro has been tough to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 18z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GFS is actually pretty close at 18z. It went from having LP off the outer banks at 06z Tuesday morning to having the LP over Northern Florida, near Lake City. It's still moving it around quite a lot. I'd say it and the other models will begin to have a more similar solution by Friday or so, for good or ill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Also, just from the MRX disco, multiple members of the GFS ens actually agree with the Euro/Canadian rather than with the Gfs itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The shortwave energy is strong with this one. It won't take much. When it comes to winter storm events, I always get concerned with the models showing absurd totals because more often than not that energy ends up getting robbed by the subsequent coastal surface feature. In this case, I am far more confident in a real big storm event because the snow producer will be the upper level feature itself. With the cold air in place, it won't take much of a moisture stream to produce some significant snowfall. Those huge coastal storms fail more often than not for producing for the Valley. Here is a real shortwave event that only needs a little boost in Gulf moisture to go bonkers. I really like this setup. Hopefully it holds... Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 As Franklin just pointed out in the winter thread, the 12z Euro parallel just obliterated TN with the entire state getting over 6 inches of snow. I'd say 70% of the landmass gets 10+ inches. North MS, AL, GA and especially SW VA get in on the action as well. Big time weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The shortwave energy is strong with this one. It won't take much. When it comes to winter storm events, I always get concerned with the models showing absurd totals because more often than not that energy ends up getting robbed by the subsequent coastal surface feature. In this case, I am far more confident in a real big storm event because the snow producer will be the upper level feature itself. With the cold air in place, it won't take much of a moisture stream to produce some significant snowfall. Those huge coastal storms fail more often than not for producing for the Valley. Here is a real shortwave event that only needs a little boost in Gulf moisture to go bonkers. I really like this setup. Hopefully it holds... Sent from my LG G4. Respectfully, huge coastals deliver for the Valley, but they have decreased in number IMO. Used to be that was a mainstay of our winter wx. So, it seems that they don't deliver because when one fails, it is might be some time before another arrives. Inland runners are big storms for the Valley. Our biggest snows have come from those. The eastern Valley is very fortunate that it can tap the GL, GOM, or the Atlantic. Northern stream energy is often very tricky. The classic E TN snowstorm is energy from split flow that originates from the southwest, then moves along the GC, and up through the eastern Piedmont inside of Hatteras. Those storms are money in the bank. This northern stream feature is interesting because it is ramming a retreating cold air mass. The question is whether it will actually tap the GOM and turn the corner through the Piedmont after it dives SE. In the eastern side of the Valley, we could enhance the qpf available if it pivots over Georgia and heads north. The Atlantic could then feed the nw quadrant. The Para almost does it, and I think would if that track is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Respectfully, huge coastals deliver for the Valley, but they have decreased in number IMO. Used to be that was a mainstay of our winter wx. So, it seems that they don't deliver because when one fails, it is might be some time before another arrives. Inland runners are big storms for the Valley. Our biggest snows have come from those. The eastern Valley is very fortunate that it can tap the GL, GOM, or the Atlantic. Northern stream energy is often very tricky. The classic E TN snowstorm is energy from split flow that originates from the southwest, then moves along the GC, and up through the eastern Piedmont inside of Hatteras. Those storms are money in the bank. This northern stream feature is interesting because it is ramming a retreating cold air mass. The question is whether it will actually tap the GOM and turn the corner through the Piedmont after it dives SE. In the eastern side of the Valley, we could enhance the qpf available if it pivots over Georgia and heads north. The Atlantic could then feed the nw quadrant. The Para almost does it and I think would if that track is real.Oh I don't disagree. Our biggest snow storms have come off powerful surface lows. It's just increasingly rare that the surface feature powers into the southern Appalachians with very cold pool aloft in place. The exception being '93 when we had a crazy phasing event that was a lifetime event for everyone. I'd rather take my chances with a strong shortwave this far out than bank on a coastal bomber. It just looks more fail proof. We have a good solid chance of snow over the entire Valley without any crippling warm nose interference.Sent from my LG G4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Oh I don't disagree. Our biggest snow storms have come off powerful surface lows. It's just increasingly rare that the surface feature powers into the southern Appalachians with very cold pool aloft in place. The exception being '93 when we had a crazy phasing event that was a lifetime event for everyone. I'd rather take my chances with a strong shortwave this far out than bank on a coastal bomber. It just looks more fail proof. We have a good solid chance of snow over the entire Valley without any crippling warm nose interference. This looks like a good set-up if indeed it is reality. There is less that can go wrong. If it is on the models tomorrow evening, we are close to being in business. I am always a little skiddish this far out, but the Euro really does not want to budge from this solution. Would really enjoy seeing the whole forum area get hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 DGEX The first American model on board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The first American model on board... What's the DGEX? I've never heard of that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The DGEX is the extended NAM. It's known for generally awful solutions and dumping feet of snow over places with very little shot of it happening. But it may give a small clue about where the American models could trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The DGEX is the extended NAM. It's known for generally awful solutions and dumping feet of snow over places with very little shot of it happening. But it may give a small clue about where the American models could trend. I guess that's why I don't see the DGEX posted much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The DGEX is the extended NAM. It's known for generally awful solutions and dumping feet of snow over places with very little shot of it happening. But it may give a small clue about where the American models could trend. Exactly. Just seeing if potentially the Am model suite may get on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 The DGEX of 4 or 5 years ago used to regularly produce the most insane clowns around. It was a weenies last hope. Seems like I've heard that it has gotten more useful/reasonable in recent years, but I don't have links to back that up. Just another data point in our favor at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 0z GFS ended up with this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 0z GFS ended up with this: Still not showing the big amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Still not showing the big amounts. There is a storm, so we have that going for us, which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Any word on the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Any word on the CMC? Still rolling out on model center, looks decent at hour 84 to my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 It seems to my untrained eye that the placement of that 104X high pressure is key here. It moves too far east, then rain. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The high is slightly further north and west of its 12z position through the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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