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12th/13th possible ENC/CNC Event


84 Hour NAM

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Looks like Mon/Tues event quickly going away ( wasn't really in play accept for maybe some onset snow/sleet) so this might be the last decent chance I get to see accumulating snow so this needs to work out....

 

not everyday you see the county to my east under a warning while we sit under a WWA....hope they have to upgrade it tomorrow....this is playing out pretty much like I expected it too they will low ball this thing all the way through...MHX going with 1" for MBY...of course WSW criteria for those counties is like 1-3" of snow lol.

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gfs ensemble members have mixing issues east of greenville, so im not sure DTs 4"+ totals are going to work out.  rdu should be good for all snow we just need as much qpf as possible.  tonight the hrrr and rap should be relatively in range so im eager to see what they show the radar looking like tomorrow morn.

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I did the same thing that is MM not inches....I will be happy with 2" anything more than that is butter as far as I am concerned.

I love this kind of system. Do u remember a few years ago we had a similar setup I think it was a true clipper pgv ended up with a solid 3-4 as predictions were 1-2. These small systems love to overperform

I'm pumped. Sure it won't be a lot but will be awesome to see some mod snow fall for a few hours in the day tmrw.

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Just got a Winter Weather Advisory


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC337 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016...A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSSPORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY....AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILLTRACK NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY SPREADING AN AREA OF WINTRYPRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTHCAROLINA.NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-077-130000-/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0005.160212T1200Z-160213T0000Z/WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON337 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM ESTFRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY ...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM ESTFRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND PARTS OF  THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE  TRIANGLE METRO AREA.* HAZARD TYPES...PRIMARILY SNOW...ALTHOUGH SOME INTERVALS OF SLEET  AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF  INTERSTATE 95.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE CONSIDERABLY FROM  SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AN AVERAGE OF A HALF INCH OF  ACCUMULATION WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW CAN  BE EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE  POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR TARBORO AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. A  LIMITED GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE  95.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN 700 AM AND  1000 AM NEAR AND SOUTH OF U.S. 64 AND SPREAD NORTHEAST  OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. THE  STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL BETWEEN 1000 AM AND 400  PM BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.* IMPACTS...THE GROUND IS RATHER COLD AND TEMPERATURES IN THE  LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO  ACCUMULATE. BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND SHADED ROADS WILL LIKELY  HAVE SOME ACCUMULATION ON THEM AND BECOME SLICK.* CONFIDENCE...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ACCUMULATING  SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN IN ROANOKE  RAPIDS AND TARBORO. CONFIDENCE DECREASES TO THE WEST ACROSS THE  TRIANGLE AREA INCLUDING RALEIGH AS WELL AS LOUISBURG AND  WARRENTON WHERE THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IS  MUCH LESS CERTAIN AND WHERE THERE`S A CHANCE VERY LITTLE WILL  FALL.
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I love this kind of events, lots of cold in the days before and after.

NWS Wakefield has just issued WWA for my area and even WWW in some counties in NC.

My prediction is around 1" maybe 2" if we get lucky. With lows in lower 20s all I see is traffic chaos tomorrow.

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