PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 WCPSS already has an early release tomorrow....for staff development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Roads have already been salted from E Johnston County all the way into Wilson on HWY 42. More than likely because they were caught with their pants down the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Never forget that one.I left work at 10:30am that day to get my daughter from school. I arrived at Durant middle from Cary at11:00pm Wow, that's nuts. What was it like at the school? A big party I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Wow, that's nuts. What was it like at the school? A big party I suspect. Bunch of sleepy kids and exhausted teachers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I don't think the warm nose looks to bad here its pretty weak and should be snow/sleet mix at worst, and if I had to choose between weaker low and 1-2" all snow or stronger low with weak warm nose and 3-5" with some sleet well......this is when I get the most nervous about storms, things are trending better and we are within 24hrs and I am just waiting for the other shoe to drop and take this away from us...I haven't seen any accumulating winter weather this year other than a quick .10" sleet in Jan that melted within a few hrs so this would make the winter for us if it pans out for 2-4" that's almost 100% climo for us ( 4-6" is climo) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 nam comes in pretty moist again. will post maps in a few.almost looks a little slower as snow hasnt really reached rdu yet by 18z on the 32k nam. 12z yet again is much more expansive but idk how much of that if any is reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I don't think the warm nose looks to bad here its pretty weak and should be snow/sleet mix at worst, and if I had to choose between weaker low and 1-2" all snow or stronger low with weak warm nose and 3-5" with some sleet well......this is when I get the most nervous about storms, things are trending better and we are within 24hrs and I am just waiting for the other shoe to drop and take this away from us...I haven't seen any accumulating winter weather this year other than a quick .10" sleet in Jan that melted within a few hrs so this would make the winter for us if it pans out for 2-4" that's almost 100% climo for us ( 4-6" is climo) Sad thing is we've had a couple close calls where we could have racked up. January when I got 3 inches of pure sleet and for both of us, espeacilly you with the hybird cat 1 that just went up the coast a week or so ago. Thats the one that should have been. Close only counts in horseshoes. Hope this atleast works out for you guys to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 4k nam has east wake with 1", west wake with pretty much nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Sad thing is we've had a couple close calls where we could have racked up. January when I got 3 inches of pure sleet and for both of us, espeacilly you with the hybird cat 1 that just went up the coast a week or so ago. Thats the one that should have been. Close only counts in horseshoes. Hope this atleast works out for you guys to my east. LOL yeah I got a foot about 1500 ft above my head in that one.....I am just wanting it to snow, low tonight of 22 after a high today in the upper 30's and temps in the low 20's this morning means it all sticks.....the question is how much and hopefully this follows the trend of wetter more expansive precip than modeled....rations look to be 12:1 for most of it so even .30-.40 would be a good hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 RGEM consistent with 3-5" of snow from Greenville and points east with 1-2" in RDU to Wilson area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 RGEM consistent with 3-5" of snow from Greenville and points east with 1-2" in RDU to Wilson area. I wouldn't bet against the RGEM. There is really dry air to overcome, but potentially really good ratios. Maybe they will cancel each other out??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 When does using HRRR start coming in range for this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think the RGEM is the best guess at this point. I would get less than a half inch for mby but it does look reasonable. Maybe CR can get an inch. Places further east will have more qpf but will also have more issues of mixing. Still, this is a fun little system to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 When does using HRRR start coming in range for this system? RAP and HRRR are dead to me after trying to suck me in to a decent snowstorm with that super low off the SE coast Sunday by running changeovers to snow all Sat night..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The RGEM keeps on trending towards mood flakes out this way. The 06z GFS also shifted towards the better out this way. Wouldn't be surprised to see some mood flakes, at least. Looks fun for you guys out east, so good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z GFS has almost the whole state of NC in the >.01 field. But, it has shrunk the >.1 fields to the immediate central coast areas. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=039ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_039_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160211+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 With the dry air might be a lot of virga even for eastern areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I give more credence to the RGEMs thermal profile at this stage then the NAM. The high res nam has southern Pitt getting 1/4" of ZR which is wrong based on the thickness plots. The 12z RGEM looks like an all snow event for the central coastal plain, no IP accums and very light ZR over Onslow back towards Warsaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 hrrr should come into decent range by tonights 00z runs. experimental hrrr goes out to 24hrs but still isnt showing much by tomorrow at 10am. gonna be a fun one to watch unfold. anything from 0 to 3" is on the table for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 With the dry air might be a lot of virga even for eastern areas... Models account for virga in their qpf output and snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 With the dry air might be a lot of virga even for eastern areas... models take that into account when doing qpf maps though...I would double the GFS qpf output based on its performance with the last 3-4 systems..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 someone tell brick hes more likely to see snow with this than the system next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 someone tell brick hes more likely to see snow with this than the system next week. That is a sad truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That's a possibility. But four days out, anything is possible still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hope this isn't a waste of brine before next week's rain. @NCDOT Crews out brining in Halifax, Nash, Edgecombe, Wilson, Johnston, and Wayne counties in preparation for possible winter weather Fri. #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hope this isn't a waste of brine before next week's rain. @NCDOT Crews out brining in Halifax, Nash, Edgecombe, Wilson, Johnston, and Wayne counties in preparation for possible winter weather Fri. #ncwx Town of Cary is putting out brine today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Same here but with temp profiles it wont do much good.....could see snow with temps in the upper 20's all day tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Brine would still be effective in those temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Brine would still be effective in those temperatures. Nah heck they brined the roads for the last storm in Jan and temps where 29-30 with sleet at onset and the roads iced up inside of a hr and we only had a .10" of sleet.......it might work on main roads with heavy traffic but side roads and shady spots will get covered almost immediately.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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