DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yea GFS looks a tad wetter for rdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still too far out to take ANY models seriously. Will need to wait until tomorrow eve at best to see what this does or doesnt do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The Euro has been the most consistent I think, so it shouldn't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still too far out to take ANY models seriously. Will need to wait until tomorrow eve at best to see what this does or doesnt do.Uh, it is 36 hours out. Plenty close to take models seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The Euro has been the most consistent I think, so it shouldn't be ignored. Euro did not do well with the previous system and was playing catchup in regards to how far the qpf made it inland. Up until about 24-30 hours from the start of the event it had basically all the qpf along the coast or offshore. Then once we were less than 24 hours from the start it suddenly shifted NW in line with other models. The CMC is painting 1-3" across Eastern NC. We now have the GFS, CMC, RGEM, ARPEGE, NAM and the Euro ensembles in agreement for a light 1-3" event for Eastern NC and parts of Central NC. With all the high res models on board especially the RGEM and ARPEGE I like the chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hey! Welcome back to the party, snowlover. Thanks! I like the chances for 1-3" of snow across Eastern NC and a dusting to an inch around RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm usually pretty optimistic, but my gut tells me if mby is gonna hit climo this year I better cash in with one of these next 2 events and this one unfortunately has right at zilch over here. I'd rather score big with this event because of the cold that follows for a few days. So if someone hits the jackpot you get the double bonus of being able to enjoy it all weekend without any drip drip. I just ain't feeling g it after this week, could be and hopefully wrong but that's saying alot when 2 of the biggest 3 snowfalls I've personally witnessed in NC fell 17 inches on Feb 28 and 15 inches in first week of March 1993. Morale is enjoy every flake that falls , cause a long dry summer is fast approaching. I don't see this one working out for us. Hopefully, the President's Day one does, though (mid-February has been Fab Feb two years running, so why not a third?). The pattern looks to go south around D10 and even assuming that doesn't last too long, we'll be in late February or early March before we get back into a potentially favorable pattern... time will have nearly run out. That being said, we get a lot of snow in late February/early March, and get a lot of our bigger events then, as well, so who knows? Of course, the modeling looked to be taking the pattern south about 10 days ago and yet here we are, so we'll see what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The 00z Euro is better, but still mostly a swing and a miss. It does show Snow TV for a good portion of NC and extreme N SC, though. Looks like a Kitty Hawk jackpot with maybe 1/2-1" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If the NAM is correct, I'd watch out for this Low. In the right spot (which it isn't verbatim), near the Lee of the mountains, it can cause some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The NAM is pretty cold at the surface, too. 20s for most of those with precip falling (even E NC). Mid-levels are great. I kind of doubt we get anything out this way, but who knows? If the NAM is right, we probably get a coating, which would be miraculous. I wish I could get this sounding with a big dog on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 6z 4km NAM looking pretty good, has a strip of 1-2" pretty far west and now there are areas of 0.5"+ QPF inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Every model has at least 2" for MBY most a bit more an the Nam 4k has 5-6".....if we end up with a 4-6" event out of this I will be 100% of climo. MHX going with a inch for now, wonder when they go with WWA and if the models show 3" in 12 hrs thats usually good for a WSW for us ( I know sad huh) Friday A chance of snow after 9am, mixing with sleet after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 WPC has Wake county in the 30% chance of 1" SREF mean is around 1/2 inch GFS and NAM both show snow on BUFKIT..NAM is wetter... Gonna be interesting if this stuff starts mid morning. Roads could get bad fast with antecedent cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still don't expect much, but as others have said with very cold surfaces this could get interesting. Just a half inch would cause big issues in the urban areas. Remember the Raleigh fiasco years back; and Atlanta a couple of years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still don't expect much, but as others have said with very cold surfaces this could get interesting. Just a half inch would cause big issues in the urban areas. Remember the Raleigh fiasco years back; and Atlanta a couple of years ago. Never forget that one. I left work at 10:30am that day to get my daughter from school. I arrived at Durant middle from Cary at 11:00pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Hope we don't have a repeat of cars burning on Glenwood Ave again like a couple of years ago, or taking 8 hours to drive what usually takes 30 minutes like we did with the half inch that shut down the roads longer ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Assuming we don't see a major N shift in the next 36 hours, people will fall off their chairs when this comes into range on the NAM and they see the temps it spits out at places like GSP/AHN/ATL at hour 84 vs what the globals had been showing. I've seen cases where the NAM gets into range on a wedge situation and is 12-15 degrees colder than what the globals had been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It won't be much, aside from the snow-staved folks Down East. Combination of timing and rising temps should slide this east of the Sandhills with little more than a half-inch of slush. But heck, it'll be something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The snow accumulation map was already shown, but here is the NAM simulated radar at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If I was a betting man, which I am not, I would say this is the most likely scenario. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If I was a betting man, which I am not, I would say this is the most likely scenario. Looks reasonable. Unless the low pops with more energy than expected, this one has Down East written all over it. Good luck ... y'all deserve a nice snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If I was a betting man, which I am not, I would say this is the most likely scenario. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That closer matches what RAH is predicating in it's grid outputs; at least for it's forecasting area. I noticed as you get closer to the coast there is more mention of sleet and even some freezing rain. So that map may be a little high in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 well model def trended wetter overnight, barring a huge increase in qpf on the models today i think rdu getting enough to lightly coat the grass would be a win. roads should be fine as long as it doesnt overperform...and if it does we will have a big problem with the roads. looks to start around noon or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 RDU thinking snow to sleet/rain over eastern sections. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILLINITIALLY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW. AS WARMER AIR STARTS TOOVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH... SHOULD SEE THE SNOW MIX WITHSLEET THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BEFOREENDING LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TOOCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THEFAR EASTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM. OVER THE REST OF THEPIEDMONT...EXPECTING JUST A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOWFLURRIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NWS Raleigh @NWSRaleigh 2h2 hours ago Potential for light wintry mix across of central NC Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Watch for a weak warm nose across Eastern NC that could affect totals due to mixing with sleet and/or rain/freezing rain. RGEM and 4km NAM picking up on this. Still the mixing wouldn't occur until a good portion of precip has already fallen. A general 1-3" of snow looks likely to me around PGV and points east with some mixing near the end with sleet or freezing rain. Watch the 4km NAM and RGEM as they do quite well with warm noses and transition zones. Here is the rgem below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 gfs ensemble members. nearly all show a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I wonder what call the schools will make. Probably play it safe and close tomorrow if there is still mention of snow tonight. They don't want to chance the kids getting stuck at school if it starts snowing during the day, which has happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I wonder what call the schools will make. Probably play it safe and close tomorrow if there is still mention of snow tonight. They don't want to chance the kids getting stuck at school if it starts snowing during the day, which has happened before. they wont close, i dont see fish or any other tv mets going on tonight too aggressive. everyone will panic at work/school once it starts as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The SREF has the .1 qpf line west to around Greensboro. I don't trust this model but here it is: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_042_precip_p12.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=09¶m=precip_p12&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160211+09+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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