FallsLake Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 my expectation for this one for rdu is some light snow showers thru the day friday, no accumulation but nice to look at. That's the best bet (snow showers, no accumulation). Of course it could over perform some but hoping for that usually ends in disappointment. We also have a couple more model run. If we could get the qpf < .1 it could be a nice minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 so nothing west of I-95 looks to be the case? which I know things can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 That's the best bet (snow showers, no accumulation). Of course it could over perform some but hoping for that usually ends in disappointment. We also have a couple more model run. If we could get the qpf < .1 it could be a nice minor event. For a strung out clipper, traveling due east across the northern half of the state, occasional snow showers would be a HUGE win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 That's the best bet (snow showers, no accumulation). Of course it could over perform some but hoping for that usually ends in disappointment. We also have a couple more model run. If we could get the qpf < .1 it could be a nice minor event. I am at .15-.20" with a 12:1 ratio that is 2",you guys would get a solid dusting as is and typically they almost always trend wetter and farther NW with the precip as we get closer....I could see Fayetteville up to RDU over the RWI getting 1-2" and 3-5" down this way towards the coast if that normal trend takes place....west of there though there will be a sharp cutoff I suspect.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 For a strung out clipper, traveling due east across the northern half of the state, occasional snow showers would be a HUGE win. The coastal redevelopment is actually what gives those in the east a chance, not the clipper energy itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The coastal redevelopment is actually what gives those in the east a chance, not the clipper energy itself. Clipper has shown moisture for RDU. That's what I was talking about. I think snow showers for RDU would be on the generous side for our area. Partly cloudy with flurries is probably more likely. Farther east, I am not sure why a surface low spins up. I don't understand why the models are doing that. This is not a particularly vigorous clipper, and there is no real ridging out ahead of it. Maybe it will spin one up anyway. I hope the eastern sections get something, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z NAM simulated radar at hour 54: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160210+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Clipper has shown moisture for RDU. That's what I was talking about. I think snow showers for RDU would be on the generous side for our area. Partly cloudy with flurries is probably more likely. Farther east, I am not sure why a surface low spins up. I don't understand why the models are doing that. This is not a particularly vigorous clipper, and there is no real ridging out ahead of it. Maybe it will spin one up anyway. I hope the eastern sections get something, though! I think a lot of the initial moisture would be from warm air advection as the clipper and then much colder air spills in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS says no moisture too far East except for outer banks, but its light there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS says no moisture too far East except for outer banks, but its light there too Not to surprised, I need room for the NW trend in the last 24 hrs so that's ok for now...it will come back...I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS says no moisture too far East except for outer banks, but its light there too And inner banks. It makes it as far west as Kinston-Washington-Edenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The 4k NAM has the right idea if, big if, we see coastal development close enough to the coast. Two area of enhancement with the NNE wind, one off the Pamlico which takes a strip through New Bern, likely the best totals, and another off the Albemarle back to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 And inner banks. It makes it as far west as Kinston-Washington-Edenton At this point as long as the models keep the general idea of a low off the coast I am happy, its likely the best chance I have of seeing accumulating snowfall so far this winter. I have lived here my entire life and this type of setup actually works out for us a lot of the time, weaker lows popping 50-75 miles off ILM headed NE with strong cold air working in pays off a lot of the time. The progression is the same every time too, poorly modeled, NWS will go with a WWA for Friday mention up to a inch of accumulation and then as the event unfolds have to throw a quickie warning for 3-5" as the low trends stronger. I have seen this happen many times. here we either get low balled and over perform on snow totals or they go big and the storm goes bust..... edit to add I am not saying we get 3-5" only that I would not be surprised to see that outcome regardless of what the models show leading up to it,.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 6z para GFS looks good, matches up with the 9z sref mean but slightly NW, jackpots Columbia NC with 6". Would like to see the Euro hone in before getting too excited for measurable type here. It will be nice if it starts during the day, much rather see snow than having to look for it in the dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 euro is dry, this one might be done for rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 SREF still gives RDU a burst of snow Friday afternoon/evening... not a lot but dusting - 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 SREF is over .25 for New Bern-Washington an improvement over the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looks like I'm too far north for this one. Models that even see precip don't go beyond Elizabeth City with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 This event IF there ends up being a event will most likely be poorly modeled, especially in regards to low strength and track etc....so while I would love to see all the models honking a hit I would also be nervous if that was the case as whenever its a "sure" thing for us it almost always under performs or doesn't happen at all....The overall setup is one of the ones I favor for us getting a "surprise" 1-3" event....its still around 36 hrs out so lets see what happens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Even CAE forecast office is talking about possible sleet/snow down here if NAM is right. Light amounts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Even CAE forecast office is talking about possible sleet/snow down here if NAM is right. Light amounts though. 18z NAM is running now. Lets see what it says.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 sref plumes also gave rdu crazy qpf with the last system and we got nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Euro was giving PGV about 1/10" with the last system and we were close to 1". The trend has been for any meaningful QPF producer to verify on the wetter end of guidance recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 At hour 36 the NAM is showing a little more simulated radar returns building in SC. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_036_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160210+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 SREFs are absolutely terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 12k nam continues to show returns in nc thru 45 but little to nothing looks to make it to the surface yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Not much difference for down east (.1 or >). Looks like RDU is now on the line of .01 and nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 SREF stands for Short Range Epic Fail lol. Hey! Welcome back to the party, snowlover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 All in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS likes a general 1-3 down east from New Bern to Washington over to Nags Head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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