Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Love to get an event like this that sneaks up on us. Would be a lot easier if it was like that all the time instead of looking at 10 day model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 That really is a rather nice look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 How's it looking for south Carolina Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Isn't the NAM the only model showing winter weather for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Isn't the NAM the only model showing winter weather for Friday? No. This is about eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS comes in even wetter and further w with precip than 18z! Great trends today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 3-5 inches for PGV to ISO to EWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS comes in even wetter and further w with precip than 18z! Great trends today Thanks for the update! Any chance you could post a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Thanks for the update! Any chance you could post a map?Can't. On my phone. 1" or so for Rdu and higher totals Greenville west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 Can't. On my phone. 1" or so for Rdu and higher totals Greenville west. Think you mean Greenville east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Thanks for the update! Any chance you could post a map? You can see the GFS on tropicaltidbits.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Can't. On my phone. 1" or so for Rdu and higher totals Greenville west. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I happen to be in Nags Head for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Lets hope this trend keeps up, this morning only the 12km nam showed it now the Nam, GFS and CMC all show some snow for eastern and even central NC....the Nam snowfall maps never updated past 45 hr for me on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 NWS RAH overnight update, 1.5" seems likely to me I'd even go 2" for this event, localized east. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING ~130KT JETSTREAK DIVINGSOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEEPENING ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH OUT OFCANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE... ALLMODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE OFF THESOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST...BUT JUST HOW FAR/CLOSE IS STILL IN DEBATEWITH FORECAST MODELS EXHIBITING LITTLE TO NO RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITYAT THIS TIME. OWING TO THE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THEREGION...PARTIALS/NOMOGRAMS INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL AS MOSTLYSNOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH..THE BIGGEST QUESTION/GREATESTUNCERTAINTY IS JUST MUCH PRECIP/QPF WE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. GIVENTHE LACK OF CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELSOLUTIONS...WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH BOTH THE GEFS ANDEC EPS INDICATING A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITHONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS INLAND OVER THE PIEDMONT. USING A 12-10:1RATIO(SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE OWING TO THE ARCTICAIRMASS IN PLACE)...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHESALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH A DUSTING TO HALF INCH BACK OVER THEPIEDMONT COUNTIES. STAY TUNE AS JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHOREOF THE COASTAL LOW COULD KEEP PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Models keep sliding further east but hopefully it comes back NW a bit in the last 36 hrs but if it doesnt it wouldnt surprise me as it seems impossible to get it to snow more than a flurry here this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDUBRDU Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I will gladly take a dusting to an inch Friday with a true cold air mass in place and call it a win this winter. At least it will be REAL snow instead of a sloppy mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 American models must of ingested something this morning, 6z GFS mems are horrible, nam dried up, still time for it to come back but not liking what happened this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 American models must of ingested something this morning, 6z GFS mems are horrible, nam dried up, still time for it to come back but not liking what happened this morning. yea they really regressed. hope it is a hiccup but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 American models must of ingested something this morning, 6z GFS mems are horrible, nam dried up, still time for it to come back but not liking what happened this morning. yeah not a good sign at all that this happened in the time frame it did, but the waters are warm and the cold air mass in place might work its magic.....all I want is 1-3" on a good cold ground that sticks around a few days, the most I have seen is maybe a .10" of sleet at the start of the Jan storm and that all melted by 9am.... Would suck if we dont get this SLP to be wetter and trend NW like every single other one has the last 6 months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Wow, really went south in just 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Wow, really went south in just 8 hours. Mostly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Mostly east. I meant south as in gone bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 nam coming in wetter than 06z thru 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Nam many be better this run....but I got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 yea nam is an improvement. light snow showers for rdu, little to no accum but higher totals east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 I pick New Bern - Washington as the place to be on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 my expectation for this one for rdu is some light snow showers thru the day friday, no accumulation but nice to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I pick New Bern - Washington as the place to be on this one. I am in eastern Pitt Co about 5 miles east of Gville and 15 miles west of Washington....normally Hwy 17 is the R/S line in these setups but it looks like it might work out a bit better for the folks down that way though...Might have to ride to my hunting club way out east they might do better than MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Nags Head looks like the best place to be if they can stay all snow.. otherwise i wouldn't get too excited over this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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