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12th/13th possible ENC/CNC Event


84 Hour NAM

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NWS RAH overnight update, 1.5" seems likely to me I'd even go 2" for this event, localized east. 

 

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:

SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING ~130KT JETSTREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEEPENING ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE... ALL
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST...BUT JUST HOW FAR/CLOSE IS STILL IN DEBATE
WITH FORECAST MODELS EXHIBITING LITTLE TO NO RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
AT THIS TIME. OWING TO THE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
REGION...PARTIALS/NOMOGRAMS INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL AS MOSTLY
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH..THE BIGGEST QUESTION/GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST MUCH PRECIP/QPF WE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THE LACK OF CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
EC EPS INDICATING A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS INLAND OVER THE PIEDMONT. USING A 12-
10:1RATIO(SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE OWING TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE)...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH A DUSTING TO HALF INCH BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
STAY TUNE AS JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE COASTAL LOW COULD KEEP PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA.

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American models must of ingested something this morning, 6z GFS mems are horrible, nam dried up, still time for it to come back but not liking what happened this morning.

 

yeah not a good sign at all that this happened in the time frame it did, but the waters are warm and the cold air mass in place might work its magic.....all I want is 1-3" on a good cold ground that sticks around a few days, the most I have seen is maybe a .10" of sleet at the start of the Jan storm and that all melted by 9am....

 

Would suck if we dont get this SLP to be wetter and trend NW like every single other one has the last 6 months...

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I pick New Bern - Washington as the place to be on this one.

 

I am in eastern Pitt Co about 5 miles east of Gville and 15 miles west of Washington....normally Hwy 17 is the R/S line in these setups but it looks like it might work out a bit better for the folks down that way though...Might have to ride to my hunting club way out east they might do better than MBY.

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