DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 its so hard to buy what the gfs is selling IMBY. its the only model giving me near 1" qpf.True Katie, all I'm buying is what Hoffman is... Someone is going to get a good total, probably north of DC-Annap. How much? I'm not sure we will know til it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Is this total QPF? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The RGEM is also. I think you will be one of the few in this sub forum to do well. I think i will be lucky to see 4" out of this.I agree with most here that we will struggle with temps. But I am feeling good. Called for another 6-10" at noon day 2 of the blizzard and a superband developed and sat over us for the whole afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS total snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 well played... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS/RGEM/SREFs vs. NAM/4km NAM A good battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk lol I had to double check, then looked at the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk LOL. Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Is this total QPF? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk had to be the blizzard....look at the time on the phone never mind ...date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 lol I had to double check, then looked at the time I really hate when people bring that damn thing back up. I spent a lot of money having those memories permanently erased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Is this total QPF? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's the March 2013 bust event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 had to be the blizzard....look at the time on the phoneNot quite Mitch. He is a bad bad man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 ugh, look at the date at the bottom, its from the march 2013 BUST!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS total snowfall. I'd run straight to the bank with the latest GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Matt, you have to be a bitter man to still be carrying that map on your phone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12Z GFS also has that wonky displaced precip max south of DC in the Quantico/Northern Neck area that the NAM did. Of course the other max is in that "other" area. Weird looking run, but cold. 2 inches in DC would be a win. 1 inch at my home as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Looking at that felt like having ice cold water poured over my head. ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Don't forget the RGEM Meh. If the Euro was giving me near 1", then I'd be a little less hesitate. 4-6" is my realistic expectations. And that's if the qpf is there, otherwise, ha, I'll be lucky with 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The GFS has not wavered in the last couple of days. The Euro caved to the GFS last night. Does it hold today... we will know at 1 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS/RGEM/SREFs vs. NAM/4km NAM A good battle Kind of like the Broncos defense against the Panther offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Meh. If the Euro was giving me near 1", then I'd be a little less hesitate. 4-6" is my realistic expectations. And that's if the qpf is there, otherwise, ha, I'll be lucky with 2" 0z euro bumped precip totals by 50% vs yesterday's 12z run. It's an incremental model compared to the others. We'll see where it goes in a couple hours. My guess is it holds or tones things back but this is a really tough one no matter which way you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It's the March 2013 bust event. Oh yeah that's like salt in an open wound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Usual kind of event that tears the forum apart. I guess the good vibes from the HECS are gone already. DC crew is crapping all over the event and some who consider themselves in the "northern tier" are pretending they will do well, when in reality good snows will mostly be for those 750ft and higher in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS BWI Tue 00Z 2/9 3.0 -4.5 1006 86 99 0.03 534 Tue 06Z 2/9 1.2 -4.1 1002 96 99 0.22 530 Tue 12Z 2/9 0.5 -3.8 999 96 99 0.26 527 Tue 18Z 2/9 -0.3 -5.3 1000 96 99 0.16 525 Wed 00Z 2/10 -1.8 -6.3 1002 94 95 0.09 523 Wed 06Z 2/10 -0.5 -7.7 1003 92 97 0.04 522 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I didn't find the GFS gasp worthy, it's good but not super good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS BWI Tue 00Z 2/9 3.0 -4.5 1006 86 99 0.03 534 Tue 06Z 2/9 1.2 -4.1 1002 96 99 0.22 530 Tue 12Z 2/9 0.5 -3.8 999 96 99 0.26 527 Tue 18Z 2/9 -0.3 -5.3 1000 96 99 0.16 525 Wed 00Z 2/10 -1.8 -6.3 1002 94 95 0.09 523 Wed 06Z 2/10 -0.5 -7.7 1003 92 97 0.04 522 Pretty good thermals and clearly the low is deepening pretty well at 999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Meh. If the Euro was giving me near 1", then I'd be a little less hesitate. 4-6" is my realistic expectations. And that's if the qpf is there, otherwise, ha, I'll be lucky with 2" I think 4-6 is pretty reasonable. I don't have great feeling about this but I also don't feel terrible either. My best guess is this is 2 parts but I could be off. Maybe we pick up 1-2 overnight and then 2-4 with the second part. Wouldn't be shocked if it's a total bust because I'm not sold on the cold afternoon temps the GFS has. On the other hand this could work out well and if we do stay cold some of those 8 inch plus amounts are not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Pretty good thermals and clearly the low is deepening pretty well at 999 TT snow map has BWI between 6-7". The diciest temps are at night so, unlike if they were during the day, it should accumulate on grassy surfaces w/o problem at 33-34 and "some" paved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Whatever good vibes around here died long ago. This is a high risk high reward event for just about all of us. Granted I haven't followed a lot, but I don't see a complete debacle in the city given the guidance. Northern folks do ok...that's how this usually works around here... I don't think you were in town yet for the two events Matt always refers to....All sorts of caution about buying into marginal temp situations for downtown DC is wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 ugh, look at the date at the bottom, its from the march 2013 BUST!!!! We didn't all bust.....got 6 inches down here near EZF.......enjoy your Snow tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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