yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z RGEM still a nice hit for the BWI-DCA corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I hope the precip I get comes after 4am..............when I might get below 40 degrees. I have no crystal ball, but I think I can see where this is heading. If I'm wrong so be it, but I can't see getting an inch of snow out of this. I hope NE Maryland gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z RGEM still nice BWI-DCA corridorAs nice as 6Z?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z RGEM still nice BWI-DCA corridor Whew, I was worried. LOL ...... j/k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 As nice as 6Z?. TT is only out to 30... and I was using the famous B and W maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 almost a foot for Baltimore, a little more up our way Snow maps out already? TT is only out to 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I hope the precip I get comes after 4am..............when I might get below 40 degrees. I have no crystal ball, but I think I can see where this is heading. If I'm wrong so be it, but I can't see getting an inch of snow out of this. I hope NE Maryland gets crushed. I agree with you on this one. This isnt our type of event. If I had to guess I would pick Philly north as the jackpot on this one. I know thats not what the models are showing. But it is the norm with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Snow maps out already? TT is only out to 30 Nvm... I looked at the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Over 300 users in here right now. We all need help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Probably on the models but the argument is way oversimplified here. Saying the NAM is garbage all around is wrong. I mostly agree. NAM is garbage, but it does have it's uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z RGEM is a Baltimore jack. (Meteocentre) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Whew, I was worried. LOL ...... j/k. In all seriousness, this is a pretty brutal forecast for the pros. I honestly wouldn't know what to do for the famous NE MD!!!! corridor. Pretty sure Bmore's not getting a foot, but even there that's a headache. For us (DC), I think it's easier because of temps...sticking with my original call from Friday...1 to 2 slushy inches and NBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Probably on the models but the argument is way oversimplified here. Saying the NAM is garbage all around is wrong. Even in 2016 there seems to be a collective reluctance to acknowledge the NAM is a very...errr....compromised model in the winter. It is almost something whispered about behind closed doors. We collectively follow it every run with no real acknowledgment that it isn't as capable as other models. I have seen it beat the other models even at 84 hours. It does win sometimes. But the Sixers have won 8 games and they're still in last place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z RGEM still a nice hit for the BWI-DCA corridor but does it DESTROY NE Maryland?????!!!!????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 12z RGEM is a Baltimore jack. (Meteocentre)Literally over Baltimore has around 12-18" amounts. DC around 5" I'd say. But Balt almost 40mm as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I mostly agree. NAM is garbage, but it does have it's uses. The RGEM has been pretty lousy lately, its been too dry and generally too east with everything. It had been doing well until about 3 or so weeks ago, since then its been bad. The NAM has been generally crappy outside of being right in NYC to an extent on the blizzard. The UKMET IMO has been the best lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The RGEM has been pretty lousy lately, its been too dry and generally too east with everything. It had been doing well until about 3 or so weeks ago, since then its been bad. The NAM has been generally crappy outside of being right in NYC to an extent on the blizzard. The UKMET IMO has been the best lately. There's this whole unresolved debate about the RGEM. Is it really good? And if not, is it better vs NAM? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I agree with you on this one. This isnt our type of event. If I had to guess I would pick Philly north as the jackpot on this one. I know thats not what the models are showing. But it is the norm with these. I'm out. Good luck up north. Maybe something will pop up LR to peak our interest. Not sold on end of week. 42 and sunny. Beautiful here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Literally over Baltimore has around 12-18" amounts. DC around 5" I'd say. But Balt almost 40mm as snow. If Baltimore and the area gets a foot I will run out in it butt naked. No way in hell that happens. Sorry for the banter comment, but I have a question for the experts here, in the Baltimore area what do you feel is the most likely amount we would get? Trying to determine if it's worth it to work at home tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Even on the RGEM we don't get into the better rates until after 12z Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Still snowing across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Even on the RGEM we don't get into the better rates until after 12z Tues. This is a daytime event with no significant forcing and a Great Lakes low. I'm glad I didn't invest any energy into this one early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Literally over Baltimore has around 12-18" amounts. DC around 5" I'd say. But Balt almost 40mm as snow. What a shame it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'd be fine pushing this event back to Tuesday night like the RGEM seems to be doing every run. Better chance of no work Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There's this whole unresolved debate about the RGEM. Is it really good? And if not, is it better vs NAM? Who knows. It was very good in the 13-14 winter, tended to be too warm/west/north on events last winter as a whole. This winter it was performing as well as 13-14 til mid January but has not been good since. Overall its way better than the NAM though, it has runs of 3-4 months where it by far is the best model with mesoscale features and TSTMS etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'd be fine pushing this event back to Tuesday night like the RGEM seems to be doing every run. Better chance of no work Wednesday Did you just move from Arlington, VA to York PA since your last post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This is a daytime event with no significant forcing and a Great Lakes low. I'm glad I didn't invest any energy into this one early on. Interestingly the RGEM is best after dark tomorrow with subfreezing temps. I'm skeptical as well but that's what the model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Interestingly the RGEM is best after dark tomorrow with subfreezing temps. I'm skeptical as well but that's what the model shows.Skeptical also, but at the same time okay with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 About the NAM, its not so much that it is awful, but it is not very useful because it is inconsistent. It can have its uses in picking up on convective banding potential and things like that, the problem is it has so much trouble placing features in the correct location that if you use it to rely on where something will be you will bust a lot. Like was just said, people use it wrong. About the storm, this is coming in two peices. I think many are going to get discouraged when the stuff tonight is pretty pathetic. The stuff tonight has the best timing with temps and such but I am not sure its going to have enough intensity to do much for many. Throwing in the towel on what may happen tomorrow with the NORLUN is premature IMO. We all know what the issues are for DC, and yea if the best banding sets up outside the city its going to fail. light to moderate snow with temps in the mid 30s is not going to work. BUT, if one of those convective bands sets up over the city tomorrow, I dont care what time of day it is, if its ripping 2"/hr and sitting stationary like the RGEM and some of the "Better" short range guidance suggests, its going to accumulate, urban heat island hell or not. I would HATE to have to issue a forecast on this for DC. Given the known issues of course I would lean towards the lower end and I could see a total fail, but at the same time if the banding with the trough sets up over them I could also easily see 4-5" in DC and it wouldnt shock me at all. Just realize that the bust risk is high on both ends and dont expect much but hope for a pleasent surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.