Kevin Reilly Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Is it me or is there a weak mesoscale low sitting on top of Dc look like a small circulation there hint of heavier echos convective looking...imagine warming at some levels from the south and southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Things went downhill this evening. Thread fights, invaders from other regions, warm, dry model runs. My confidence is low i even see 1-3. If I'm banking on the RGEM and everything else has flown south at onset then might be swimming against the tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 We'll see wonder why the SV maps show nothing. Not sure SV maps will accumulate in sfc temps above 32. Which is probably an overcorrection as it happens. In last sys they were extremely snow free even up north.. too snow free in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Strangely, I have rain/sleet in Baltimore right now @39. There's definitely a warm layer in here somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 My over/under IMBY is 4" Still looks right on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Light rain and 36F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Rain/snow mix I believe, but it's hard to tell. I know I saw at least a few flakes. 35.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Things went downhill this evening. Thread fights, invaders from other regions, warm, dry model runs. My confidence is low i even see 1-3. If I'm banking on the RGEM and everything else has flown south at onset then might be swimming against the tide. We always knew high risk of bust. I think it is time to throw in the towel on this one. You win some and you lose some. I should add this is for NOVA and DC. I think Maryland is in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 39 / 35 in Severna Park with moderate cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 36 but DP is up to 32! That is not good! Heavy echo not far off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Going out on a limb by posting again, but here goes: Comparing the 0z and 18z 4kNAM the 18z seems to match the current radar much better. I'd post images if I knew how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Going out on a limb by posting again, but here goes: Comparing the 0z and 18z 4kNAM the 18z seems to match the current radar much better. I'd post images if I knew how. Just use ctrl-c and Ctrl-v to copy and paste. Right click on the image to get the option bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 temp 37 dew 34 and dry as a bone here in burke. all hi res models show a light rain drizzle storm with some white rain mixed in. hoping somehow we pull a wild card norlun but my odds of winning powerball are probably higher. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 18z 0z It's not just in the precip vs no precip over us... look at PA on the current radar and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Cold rain! LAME LAME LAME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Modeling has been very insistent on light amounts of qpf over eastern Prince William Co throughout the event. I dont think it is as much about the sfc temps that's the problem for those of us in Dale City. I think the models are dead on about the quantity of precip here in MBY, which is why I get to enjoy half an inch of slush. I have yet to see any drizzle or rain of any kind. Not a complaint, just an observation. I always kept very low expectations. Modeling has been very explicit about what would happen here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 38/33 no precip at all. 0.00 I was never in the game, but rooting for everyone up north. Not giving up yet for you guys, call me crazy. Energy entering sw Va. Lets see what that does for convection up here in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Ughhh. I feel like I've been looking at this trough on some wx map or sat pic for weeks. Just pass already and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 35 here, and snowing under a 25-30 dbz band, if you wanna call it that. More like a patch. Radar looking sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 HRRR brings a band of heavy snow west of 95 around mid-morning/noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Rn/sn here but I've got a long way to go before I can even statt to fret about accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 hmmmm hrrr really improved this run - seems to be starting to sniff out convective action Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 HRRR brings a band of heavy snow west of 95 around mid-morning/noon. Thats the storm, I was hoping it would stall like the 12z RGEM but I really think 90% of the accumulating snow will be between 7 and noon.hopefully we can accumulate 3-5" in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Ch4 just significantly downplayed this at the 11pm forecast. Said based on latest models this has significant bust potential and just won't amount to much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Cold rain! LAME LAME LAME Geez if it's still cold rain in Purceville it could take a long time to switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Fwiw GGEM is decent N and W of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Sloppy mix. 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 32 and all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 35 / 33. Definitely some snow mixing in with the cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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