Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 39/33, next...this is obviously going to be a big bust for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 39/33, next...this is obviously going to be a big bust for me Not sure if sarcasm or serious. ETA: you called for c-2" for you. I don't see how that can bust. Anyway, hi res NAM radar depiction doesn't look much like reality... looking for some good news here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 34 mixing with snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Radar looks nothing like NAM, temps are lower than it depicts. Not sure why everybody's jumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 it's early on, but the radar looks showery which isn't what i want to see with temps like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Radar looks nothing like NAM, temps are lower than it depicts. Not sure why everybody's jumping NAM is offering guidance in line with others that show a big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I'm about to close the damn thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Not sure if sarcasm or serious. ETA: you called for c-2" for you. I don't see how that can bust. Anyway, hi res NAM radar depiction doesn't look much like reality... looking for some good news here. I called for 2-3"....I guess it is still possible, but ground truth and short term guidance are awful....radar looks so-so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nice development just S/W of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 39/32 C-1" but leaning towards C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Nice development just S/W of DC.Been watching that too. I saw some blue showing up in it on radarscope.Temp down another degree at nearest weatherbug station. Temps definitely dropping. Down to 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The worst 3 days of NAM runs I've seen in a while. Large swings every run for days. I'll bet the GFS will hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This thread went south fast... I am still holding out hope... it's early... let's see what the RGEM and GFS say before folding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Really light snow now started in Herndon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This thread went south fast... I am still holding out hope... it's early... let's see what the RGEM and GFS say before folding Given the type of event we're dealing with and how many swings we've seen it's probably best to wait until the atmosphere says over the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 All that we need right now, is a little patience........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Given the type of event we're dealing with and how many swings we've seen it's probably best to wait until the atmosphere says over the next 24 hours +10000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Radar looks pretty good! Definitely better than what the NAM was showing glad to hear snow is mixing in Herndon - that's not too far away. Light rain 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Given the type of event we're dealing with and how many swings we've seen it's probably best to wait until the atmosphere says over the next 24 hoursThe other night has many spooked. Tonight, though similar in some respects, has more going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The other night has many spooked. Tonight, though similar in some respects, has more going for it. The thing that makes it tough is its not a radar tracking type of event. You can't extrapolate motion and things like that. It's convective and things will blossom and band where nothing exists. With winter wx we're used to watching it move in from distance. You won't get a whole lotta that with this one. It's why it's super hard to figure out even at it happens. We don't get inv t's very often at all. But folks to our north have experienced the weirdness enough to know that you just don't know until it's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Speaking of radar blossoms... check out the blob over DC. Still rain on the northern edge of it... but 30-35bdz returns where I-66 and I-495 meet. Maybe some dynamic cooling can happen now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The worst 3 days of NAM runs I've seen in a while. Large swings every run for days. I'll bet the GFS will hold serve AGREE 100%.. This whole event is very difficult.. Don't like it one bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 All that we need right now, is a little patience........ Axel, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 33 light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The thing that makes it tough is its not a radar tracking type of event. You can't extrapolate motion and things like that. It's convective and things will blossom and band where nothing exists. With winter wx we're used to watching it move in from distance. You won't get a whole lotta that with this one. It's why it's super hard to figure out even at it happens. We don't get inv t's very often at all. But folks to our north have experienced the weirdness enough to know that you just don't know until it's happeningI'm trying to figure out why the Wunderground radar linked to this site is switching the rain to snow to our east. The Wunderground radar is usually pretty accurate so I can't figure it out. I'm referring to the 2nd one down.http://www.marylandwx.com/radar-data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Down to 31.9 on PWS. Deck is well coated and it's starting to stick to sidewalk and driveway. Currently steady light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yep, which is exactly why I'm not panicking. I've seen enough of these to know they will throw a couple of surprises our way. It is a low expectations game. High risk, high reward. Just sit back, take a deep breath, and let this unfold, everyone.I've never seen so many extreme solutions from all the models at one point or another with this storm. Just crazy. I mean we can put a man on the moon and....awhh, never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 38/33...going to see if this blob might do something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The 0Z GFS is a big piece of the puzzle. I hope it brings the good stuff. The 18Z GFS serves up a lot more precipitation than both the 0Z NAM and the higher resolution NAM and the good stuff is in SE PA, 80 miles NNE of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 38/33...going to see if this blob might do somethingSteve McQueen would suggest that you run away, but I'll sit down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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