MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Following the Boxing Day script well so far. NE MD was pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If I get 33 and rain while NE MD has PUKING snow, I will cry. However, the SREF means look good. Maybe a trend in our direction again?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Following the Boxing Day script well so far. More likely that this mimics so many of the storms from pre-2013, in that we get non-accumulating snow during the day with temps/DP around 34/33, and then it whitens up the ground after the sun goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 More likely that this mimics so many of the storms from pre-2013, in that we get non-accumulating snow during the day with temps/DP around 34/33, and then it whitens up the ground after the sun goes down. Sun Angle FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nam looking drier through h30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Well, the 12km NAM is putrid. Extremely warm, temps above 40 tomorrow in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nam not looking great through 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nam looking drier through h30 NAM was pretty dry already, any drier and its nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NAM was pretty dry already, any drier and its nothing. Close to nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 More likely that this mimics so many of the storms from pre-2013, in that we get non-accumulating snow during the day with temps/DP around 34/33, and then it whitens up the ground after the sun goes down. Talking run up and idea we went to WSW before it etc before fail more than actual series of events necessarily. No clue how LWX is going with the numbers they are in the WSW area.. no disrespect to anyone there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The problem for us is that the NAM takes the "norlun" up to Philly, and fills in the area south of DC through (presumably) upper air support. But since there is no wide, moderate precip swath, it just torches during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Talking run up and idea we went to WSW before it etc before fail more than actual series of events necessarily. No clue how LWX is going with the numbers they are in the WSW area.. no disrespect to anyone there. I mean they're taking the GFS, RGEM, GGEM, and euro to some extent... All which show those numbers. However the temp situation and climo play a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The problem for us is that the NAM takes the "norlun" up to Philly, and fills in the area south of DC through (presumably) upper air support. But since there is no wide, moderate precip swath, it just torches during the day.The 12z nam has been doing this for its last 3-4 runs, let's see what the 4 shoss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Following the Boxing Day script well so far. This right here. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 wow NAM is awful.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 The 12z nam has been doing this for its last 3-4 runs, let's see what the 4 shoss 4km isnt much better. only 1" of snow IMBY by 9am tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NAM was also the model last night w the ridiculous bullseye in NE md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 How did the NAM do yesterday down south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I mean they're taking the GFS, RGEM, GGEM, and euro to some extent... All which show those numbers. However the temp situation and climo play a role. Seems like they are forecasting the boom/reasonable worst case to me. Which is fine I suppose but risky. Of those, not sure I'd take any to mean a whole lot. GFS might be the best of the group.. which ... well lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Would like to write off the NAM but it's getting into its wheelhouse now. Just shows how uncertain an event like this can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 seems like if we want to glean information from the NAM for the event, we should use the nest. haven't looked closely, but the 12z cycle again seems to show the nest closer to some of the other guidance, although it seems odd with its heaviest precip Tuesday afternoon south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Would like to write off the NAM but it's getting into its wheelhouse now. Just shows how uncertain an event like this can be. Such a contrast to the RGEM, too...when considering meso models. Is the NAM actually a sort of low-end outlier now? The other day it was more in line with other models and the GFS was on the relative high end. Now almost all other guidance trended (last night) to a better event and the NAM goes the other way (or stands its ground, more like). Ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 No disrespect to LWX, but something doesn't seem right when their maps for max snowfall and most likely range look almost identical (at least north of I-70). I think 3-6" would be a safer call for the northern counties at this point than 6-9"... there's still uncertainty and there'd be more room to adjust higher or lower when things look more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm sure the 1" of QPF the 4kNAM has over Quantico VA will come to fruition... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 No disrespect to LWX, but something doesn't seem right when their maps for max snowfall and most likely range look almost identical (at least north of I-70). I think 3-6" would be a safer call for the northern counties at this point than 6-9"... there's still uncertainty and there'd be more room to adjust higher or lower when things look more clear. They're probably tossing the NAM - as they should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Why so? Bad run to run continuity and a history of burping and farting with events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 06z RGEM followed the 00z run... hoping that the 12z run continues the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Such a contrast to the RGEM, too...when considering meso models. Is the NAM actually a sort of low-end outlier now? The other day it was more in line with other models and the GFS was on the relative high end. Now almost all other guidance trended (last night) to a better event and the NAM goes the other way (or stands its ground, more like). Ugh! I think it's a real difficult setup. A lot of factors coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 06z RGEM followed the 00z run... hoping that the 12z run continues the trend When does the 12Z RGEM run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Temps are torching and it isn't even 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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