SLPressure Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 39/33...pretending like the RAP and HRRR don't exist and hoping the 0z NAM smokes us This. 39/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 It seems like us DC folks are doing pretty good on temps... I see some 38s and 39s. Do you think we're better off than the GFS had us so far? I use the NOAA Weather third party app on Android and every time I refresh the point and click current conditions it appears temps are steadily falling. Currently it shows 41 here. Not bad after it was like 45 within the last couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This storm will suck through at least 7am tomorrow morning might wake up to an inch if your lucky. Some sort of a band will form just north of DC shortly after 7AM. The it stalls over us and holds together, the better the storm. If it quickly dissipates or moves northeast quickly, this will bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I think there is a 0.5 QPF over DCA at hr 27 on the 21z SREFs (using the SREF mean 24 hr precip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 kind of warm! Not a great look for a snowy event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Latest hrrr is a slight improvement on qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Closest WeatherBug 38/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 kind of warm! Not a great look for a snowy event yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Did any model have DC at freezing at 8:30? Stop freaking out people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Did any model have DC at freezing at 8:30? Stop freaking out people Most models don't bring dca to freezing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Most models don't bring dca to freezing at all. Snow will accumulate at 33/34... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Most models don't bring dca to freezing at all. I don't understand why people are already jumping and its 8:30 and most people are in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 39/31 in Bethesda. 6 degree drop in 5 hrs. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Most important NAM run of our lives coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Plumes for DCA have a mean around 3 inches. That's an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I don't stun easily but I will be stunned if DC south gets more than a sloppy mess on grassy surfaces. I have doubts about the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I am definitely NOT NAM-hugging. With that safely out of the way, its going to be easy for this storm to overperform for MBY, when I conservatively expect a half inch of slush. Those kinds of storms are the best ever, the ones that end up giving you more than you expected. This temp has got to be wrong, no effin way it is correct, 37 degrees at Enterprise Elem on weatherbug.. No way I am that chilly when Arlington 20 miles north is 39. I'll just add four degrees. There, I'm 41 and cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Down to 37 now. Would think the next batch should be mostly snow if I can drop to 35. Station near Thurmont down to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yellows showing up north of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Plumes for DCA have a mean around 3 inches. That's an improvement. That mean is being inflated by the insanely high members. Look at the large numbers of members that give us nearly nothing. I'd go with the lower end of SREF guidance since the mean tends to be too high in marginal situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 36/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 That mean is being inflated by the insanely high members. Look at the large numbers of members that give us nearly nothing. I'd go with the lower end of SREF guidance since the mean tends to be too high in marginal situations. There are quite a few giving nothing too. That's why there's a mean. In any event, if you're hoping for 10 inches like the Nam, then a bust is probably in your future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I'd tend to ignore the SREF completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yellows showing up north of Richmond. could it be sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Thundersnow in the mountains per terpweather on twitter. https://twitter.com/TerpWeather/status/696865618260324352 Bolt shows up on Radarscope near Kaisers Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I am definitely NOT NAM-hugging. With that safely out of the way, its going to be easy for this storm to overperform for MBY, when I conservatively expect a half inch of slush. Those kinds of storms are the best ever, the ones that end up giving you more than you expected. I'm hugging the HRRR.... not calling a bust or anything like that, but just keeping expectations in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 38/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 A couple places in Columbia on WB reporting 36. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Overnight looks terrible on the NAM. Let's hope the daytime stuff works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 29, heavy snow. ETA: BTrwx, that was a joke. Engage smile bones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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