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Feb 8th-9th Obs/Discussion Thread


mappy

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From everything I see I think if you're in and around DC/Balt metro you have to feel good and Balt on north has to feel great. To me this just doesn't have the feel of a temp bust type storm. Get decent precip and I think things will go well.

Would like to second that.

Call from me for this one looks like this:

BWI: 4.5"

DCA: 2.4"

IAD: 3.5"

MAP (mappy) 6.0"

Ravens94 weenie: 7.5"

FDK: 5.0"

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In considering this event, it has reminiscences to Feb. 25, 2007 and Jan. 26, 2011 (Commutageddon).  Not perfect analogues of course, I'm not trying to make that direct of a comparison.

 

The Feb. 2007 event was around or slightly above freezing, we were supposed to get some sleet and ice, but ended up with a several hour period of heavy, wet snow.  About 5-6", in fact.  There was some drizzle when it lightened up at the end, but by then we scored much bigger than expected.  There were advisories out, but LWX was playing catch-up as the snow kept falling, finally issuing a warning as the snow got heavy.

 

The Jan. 2011 event, of course, was another paste job of heavy, wet snow in a short span of time...and again was just above freezing throughout.  When the snow ended later in the evening, you could almost literally see it begin to melt before it finally cooled off and turned everything into a block of ice for the next couple of days.  Very destructive on trees, and of course a traffic nightmare.

 

This upcoming storm isn't the same kind of explosive dynamic situation as Jan. 2011 (or not quite as much), so maybe it's a bit closer to Feb. 2007.  In any event, I wonder if we'll see a similar result.

 

On further thought, maybe it's also like the back-to-back March 25 snows in 2013 and 2014, where we got ~2-4 inches here close into town, and that depended on rates (plus time of day, being late March).

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I am very glad I am not the one who has to make decisions about school busses and such on Tuesday.

This is a forecast straight out of the bowels of hell

 

It could be really bad. The NAM could be a nightmare scenario. School Administrators wake up in the morning, see the snow is lightly sticking to grassy areas, and don't call off school. By 2 o'clock its dumping thundersnow and conditions are probably horrendous. How would you get the kids home in that situation?

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It could be really bad. The NAM could be a nightmare scenario. School Administrators wake up in the morning, see the snow is lightly sticking to grassy areas, and don't call off school. By 2 o'clock its dumping thundersnow and conditions are probably horrendous. How would you get the kids home in that situation?

Calm down. Roads are well salted and RWIS sensors show them 38-44 degrees.

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It could be really bad. The NAM could be a nightmare scenario. School Administrators wake up in the morning, see the snow is lightly sticking to grassy areas, and don't call off school. By 2 o'clock its dumping thundersnow and conditions are probably horrendous. How would you get the kids home in that situation?

Far more likely conditions at 2 PM would be drizzle/snizzle and 34 degrees.

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39/22. Cold shouldn't be a problem here. Just hoping moisture backs in this far west with the inverted trough.

 

Was thinking the same thing with imby.  Noticed both the hrrr and rap form a nice area of precip out this way tomorrow morning....not feeling too confident west of the br overall tho.

 

40/28

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In considering this event, it has reminiscences to Feb. 25, 2007 and Jan. 26, 2011 (Commutageddon).  Not perfect analogues of course, I'm not trying to make that direct of a comparison.

 

The Feb. 2007 event was around or slightly above freezing, we were supposed to get some sleet and ice, but ended up with a several hour period of heavy, wet snow.  About 5-6", in fact.  There was some drizzle when it lightened up at the end, but by then we scored much bigger than expected.  There were advisories out, but LWX was playing catch-up as the snow kept falling, finally issuing a warning as the snow got heavy.

 

The Jan. 2011 event, of course, was another paste job of heavy, wet snow in a short span of time...and again was just above freezing throughout.  When the snow ended later in the evening, you could almost literally see it begin to melt before it finally cooled off and turned everything into a block of ice for the next couple of days.  Very destructive on trees, and of course a traffic nightmare.

 

This upcoming storm isn't the same kind of explosive dynamic situation as Jan. 2011 (or not quite as much), so maybe it's a bit closer to Feb. 2007.  In any event, I wonder if we'll see a similar result.

 

On further thought, maybe it's also like the back-to-back March 25 snows in 2013 and 2014, where we got ~2-4 inches here close into town, and that depended on rates (plus time of day, being late March).

Any way of finding out what the road temps were for the Feb 2007 event?

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New LWX ZFP's as of 6:30 have jacked up the snow accums... alot... in the zones... LWX must be going all in

 

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

DCZ001-VAZ054-090300-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA
627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

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