Jebman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised, and then everyone freaks out from Snow/sleet TV in the DC area, causing yet again, another traffic nightmare. carmageddon II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If anything, carmageddon 2 will happen in the morning. I could see people waking up to non-accumulating snow, start to drive to work, and suddenly a snow band starts to dump heavy snow. That could cause a lot of problems. Part of the reason the forecast is so tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 From everything I see I think if you're in and around DC/Balt metro you have to feel good and Balt on north has to feel great. To me this just doesn't have the feel of a temp bust type storm. Get decent precip and I think things will go well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 From everything I see I think if you're in and around DC/Balt metro you have to feel good and Balt on north has to feel great. To me this just doesn't have the feel of a temp bust type storm. Get decent precip and I think things will go well.Would like to second that. Call from me for this one looks like this: BWI: 4.5" DCA: 2.4" IAD: 3.5" MAP (mappy) 6.0" Ravens94 weenie: 7.5" FDK: 5.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I am very glad I am not the one who has to make decisions about school busses and such on Tuesday. This is a forecast straight out of the bowels of hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 38 and light flurries falling here on on the Mason Dixon line. Just crossed the border and sprinkles went to all flurries. Some wet flurries mixed in with drizzle here. More rain then snow. 38 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 40.2 F t / 33.9 F dp / 1005.8 mb / 3mph SE wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Some wet flurries mixed in with drizzle here. More rain then snow. 38 now I expect deck picks by 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 In considering this event, it has reminiscences to Feb. 25, 2007 and Jan. 26, 2011 (Commutageddon). Not perfect analogues of course, I'm not trying to make that direct of a comparison. The Feb. 2007 event was around or slightly above freezing, we were supposed to get some sleet and ice, but ended up with a several hour period of heavy, wet snow. About 5-6", in fact. There was some drizzle when it lightened up at the end, but by then we scored much bigger than expected. There were advisories out, but LWX was playing catch-up as the snow kept falling, finally issuing a warning as the snow got heavy. The Jan. 2011 event, of course, was another paste job of heavy, wet snow in a short span of time...and again was just above freezing throughout. When the snow ended later in the evening, you could almost literally see it begin to melt before it finally cooled off and turned everything into a block of ice for the next couple of days. Very destructive on trees, and of course a traffic nightmare. This upcoming storm isn't the same kind of explosive dynamic situation as Jan. 2011 (or not quite as much), so maybe it's a bit closer to Feb. 2007. In any event, I wonder if we'll see a similar result. On further thought, maybe it's also like the back-to-back March 25 snows in 2013 and 2014, where we got ~2-4 inches here close into town, and that depended on rates (plus time of day, being late March). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 HRRR QPF at 8am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I am very glad I am not the one who has to make decisions about school busses and such on Tuesday. This is a forecast straight out of the bowels of hell It could be really bad. The NAM could be a nightmare scenario. School Administrators wake up in the morning, see the snow is lightly sticking to grassy areas, and don't call off school. By 2 o'clock its dumping thundersnow and conditions are probably horrendous. How would you get the kids home in that situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It could be really bad. The NAM could be a nightmare scenario. School Administrators wake up in the morning, see the snow is lightly sticking to grassy areas, and don't call off school. By 2 o'clock its dumping thundersnow and conditions are probably horrendous. How would you get the kids home in that situation? Calm down. Roads are well salted and RWIS sensors show them 38-44 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Calm down. Roads are well salted and RWIS sensors show them 38-44 degrees. Heh...I saw trucks lined up along Connecticut and Wisconsin Avenues already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Heh...I saw trucks lined up along Connecticut and Wisconsin Avenues already!Saw them along MD100 moments ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Temps are pretty much spot on with what the 4k Nam showed. Most of the central and N md should be in the 30's around 7pm. Looks like the Gaithersburg airport has dropped below 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It could be really bad. The NAM could be a nightmare scenario. School Administrators wake up in the morning, see the snow is lightly sticking to grassy areas, and don't call off school. By 2 o'clock its dumping thundersnow and conditions are probably horrendous. How would you get the kids home in that situation? Far more likely conditions at 2 PM would be drizzle/snizzle and 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 39/22. Cold shouldn't be a problem here. Just hoping moisture backs in this far west with the inverted trough. Was thinking the same thing with imby. Noticed both the hrrr and rap form a nice area of precip out this way tomorrow morning....not feeling too confident west of the br overall tho. 40/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Calm down. Roads are well salted and RWIS sensors show them 38-44 degrees. You forget this is the DC area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Calm down. Roads are well salted and RWIS sensors show them 38-44 degrees. That doesn't work when rain washes off the salt and there are snowfall rates of 2" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Far more likely conditions at 2 PM would be drizzle/snizzle and 34 degrees. Just pointing out how difficult the forecast is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrendaM Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm in Fawn Grove, PA (three miles over the MD/PA border, right above Harford County), and we've had flurries here for the past ten minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Light rain here - 39 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm in Fawn Grove, PA (three miles over the MD/PA border, right above Harford County), and we've had flurries here for the past ten minutes. What is your temperature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 A few sprinkles and flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 In considering this event, it has reminiscences to Feb. 25, 2007 and Jan. 26, 2011 (Commutageddon). Not perfect analogues of course, I'm not trying to make that direct of a comparison. The Feb. 2007 event was around or slightly above freezing, we were supposed to get some sleet and ice, but ended up with a several hour period of heavy, wet snow. About 5-6", in fact. There was some drizzle when it lightened up at the end, but by then we scored much bigger than expected. There were advisories out, but LWX was playing catch-up as the snow kept falling, finally issuing a warning as the snow got heavy. The Jan. 2011 event, of course, was another paste job of heavy, wet snow in a short span of time...and again was just above freezing throughout. When the snow ended later in the evening, you could almost literally see it begin to melt before it finally cooled off and turned everything into a block of ice for the next couple of days. Very destructive on trees, and of course a traffic nightmare. This upcoming storm isn't the same kind of explosive dynamic situation as Jan. 2011 (or not quite as much), so maybe it's a bit closer to Feb. 2007. In any event, I wonder if we'll see a similar result. On further thought, maybe it's also like the back-to-back March 25 snows in 2013 and 2014, where we got ~2-4 inches here close into town, and that depended on rates (plus time of day, being late March). Any way of finding out what the road temps were for the Feb 2007 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 40/30 Looks to be some sort of precipitation in Central VA working its way N/E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 New LWX ZFP's as of 6:30 have jacked up the snow accums... alot... in the zones... LWX must be going all in ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016DCZ001-VAZ054-090300-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ARLINGTON...ALEXANDRIA627 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THISEVENING......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TOMIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT....TONIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. LOWSIN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATIONNEAR 100 PERCENT..TUESDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMINGNORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT..TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHTCHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 5 TO10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Seems as if some of the western suburbs are coming in with slightly higher temps. 41.7/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm in Fawn Grove, PA (three miles over the MD/PA border, right above Harford County), and we've had flurries here for the past ten minutes. you're in an excellent spot. My folks are down the road from you in Stewartstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 35 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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