mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wow, new srefs are big qpf hit. Has the .5" circling Dca/Bwi area. It's tough to see due to lousy ncep graphics, but I swear I see a 1" pop up in one of the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I just need that NE MD Destruction Zone to move south 10 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I just need that NE MD Destruction Zone to move south 10 miles or so. You'd be mercilessly creamed and pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Ok, so besides Raven94's NE MD, what is the likelyhood the main swath of snow or bands move south or what would it take to make that happen? as MillVillWx said in the other thread, its really all about where the low level jet sets up. Anyone under it is game for some good amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You'd be mercilessly creamed and pummeled. sounds kinda hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That map is a perfect example why I chose Linthicum when deciding where to live in AA County. Bwi is 5" and I'm on or just south of the 6-7" line. Of course, 4-5 miles to my west/wnw in Elkridge often smoke me with their additional 250-300', but it ain't worth the Howard County property taxes. Sorry Scraff. Mitch -- When I head east on RT 100 from Columbia after events, I can very often detect a "rain-snow line" a few miles east of Route 1. (as you are painfully aware!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 sounds kinda hot No TEMPS will be in the 20s 5" precipitation PUmMeled creamed not warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I mean to be honest I hope he's back to tell us about w huge 12z pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 And about school closures, I think most places in maryland will close, Fairfax as well, and I don't know if the closer in places like Arlington or Alexandria will want to take a chance. PW shouldn't close, but will anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Did you see 10Z GFS? NE MD CREAMED, PUMMELED AND RAKED BY HEAVY SNOWBANDS HECS Sorry to have a bit of banter in here, but this made me think of that part of Ghostbusters near the end with the..."We're talking real wrath of God type stuff, a disaster of Biblical proportions! The dead rising from the grave! Dogs and cats, living together...mass hysteria!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I mean to be honest I hope he's back to tell us about w huge 12z pounding. I feel like he only comes here when he is drunk. He wasn't here at all during our last grazer, after he used his telekinetic powers to will the last one N/W. He was here for a little bit of the blizzard, mostly to say NE MARYLAND PUMMELED. he might actually be Mike Masco's son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Mitch -- When I head east on RT 100 from Columbia after events, I can very often detect a "rain-snow line" a few miles east of Route 1. (as you are painfully aware!) i notice at 95 the snow is light/ moderate and as you drive to clarksville the intensity increases gradualy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I feel like he only comes here when he is drunk. He wasn't here at all during our last grazer, after he used his telekinetic powers to will the last one N/W. He was here for a little bit of the blizzard, mostly to say NE MARYLAND PUMMELED. he might actually be Mike Masco's son. I know exactly who he is, won't put that business out there but he has been an awful weenie for years. Doubt he's even drunk, just a footlong ween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 As someone near that area I can tell you that it is concern. It becomes less of a concern if our wind develops an easterly component. Models are now in fairly good agreement in placing the norlun through central MD and that actually makes a lot of sense to me if you consider the wave action created from the initial subsidence from the mountains that then raises it over central MD. Wonder if we will see slight east and west adjustments on that norlun feature with the short range models all dependent on the wind speed crossing the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Good tool here to monitor and help pinpoint location of frontogenetical lift/meso banding. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 And about school closures, I think most places in maryland will close, Fairfax as well, and I don't know if the closer in places like Arlington or Alexandria will want to take a chance. PW shouldn't close, but will anyway Wouldn't be surprised if MoCo here in MD closes, though a 2 hour delay might be possible depending on what happens (they've already had 5 days off around the blizzard). If anything, because the far northern part of the county is in the watch currently. OPM...right now, my guess would be a delayed arrival and optional telework/unscheduled leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Mitch -- When I head east on RT 100 from Columbia after events, I can very often detect a "rain-snow line" a few miles east of Route 1. (as you are painfully aware!)Yeah Herb, Rt.100 is a great weenie drive to observe snow variations over a relatively short distance. Travelling from the start of Rt. 100 in Pasadena with an elevation of around 50' and then heading west where there are a few spots near 550' only 10-15 minutes away, you see some huge differences. Occasionally, however, we'll get one of those systems that pass to our south/east and Pasadena/AA County does well....but not very often as you mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Even srefs have come around nicely. 09z SREF plumes are decent... mean at DCA is 3.48"... mean at IAD is 3.66"... mean at FDK is 4.80"... mean at BWI is 4.46" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wow, new srefs are big qpf hit. Has the .5" circling Dca/Bwi area. It's tough to see due to lousy ncep graphics, but I swear I see a 1" pop up in one of the panels. but does it destroy ne maryland??????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Maybe keep the school talk in banter. Not really an ob or a short range model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 but does it destroy ne maryland??????? No. It wipes them off the face of the map, didn't you hear? ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Southern areas definitely have high bust potential because of marginal temps but I question whether western areas of the forecast area may as well. Models have consistently shown what looks to be subsidence coming off the mountains and in some cases have had it very pronounced. Really know nothing about it besides the fact that it dries the air and raises the temps so really have no other thoughts on it except that it may be a potential wildcard thrown into the mix for forecasting for our western regions. That is almost always a problem out here. Unless there is a strong southerly moisture transport, or as Wxlvr noted, a good E/NE wind component, we will be dry. Been to this dance enough times to know that we will be the stags to this party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 09z SREF plumes are decent... mean at DCA is 3.48"... mean at IAD is 3.66"... mean at FDK is 4.80"... mean at BWI is 4.46" Wow...that's pretty good. I'll have to check when I have a chance, but offhand how does that compare to last night (either 21Z or 03Z)? If you happen to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 09z SREF plumes are decent... mean at DCA is 3.48"... mean at IAD is 3.66"... mean at FDK is 4.80"... mean at BWI is 4.46" It is interesting. For FDK, it has total QPF at .61, so I guess it wants to give about .15 as rain even though it shows temps at 36 at precip onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I hope the temps don't get much above 40 -- we'll see. Thanks for the maps, Mappy! Speaking of big differences over short distances -- you should see what Damascus does to Germantown in events like this, and it's like seven miles driving. 300 extra feet FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wow...that's pretty good. I'll have to check when I have a chance, but offhand how does that compare to last night (either 21Z or 03Z)? If you happen to know. DCA is nearly doubled since 03z (mean 1.94")... so take with caution the 09z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Following the Boxing Day script well so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 DCA is nearly doubled since 03z... so take with caution the 09z SREFsCaution but optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Following the Boxing Day script well so far. Lol Thanks for that reminder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Radar is starting to fill in on the NAM by 14z tomorrow, but DPs above freezing at DCA and 950 on down is touchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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