stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Wait around for our 3:1 ratio snow? You think that high? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So. What do we do now? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk As I understand it, all the pressure is now on you all in DC. Stay away from bridges... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yeah, GFS doesn't look much different from the previous run. Maybe a little wetter but also a little warmer... still 2.5/3.5 inches for DC... warmer than the 4k NAM/RGEM/EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS is definitely warmer than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS doesn't look warm at all on weatherbell - temperatures are 35 at 12z, 33 at 18z and then 31 at 00z. We get 0.5" of precipitation from 12z to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You think that high? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I've got a few hundred feet of elevation on you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 41/28 Already lost 3 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Same general precip coverage swath as the NAM. Amounts less of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 DCA is at 38 at 6z tonight on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I've got a few hundred feet of elevation on you Ha. True. I'll enjoy my white rain and slush Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 DPs 33-35 for the whole event in DC. Not cold. yes...pretty ugly.,.I think we might be able to discern something by 9-10 pm or so.....not going to sweat DCA too much, but would like to be down to 36-37 IMBY...GFS has me at 39 at midnight...that would be problematic, but I don't buy it..44/28 now...I think we are in pretty good shape if we get decent rates...We aren't going to be 36 and 0.5 mi viz at 3 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 As I understand it, all the pressure is now on you all in DC. Stay away from bridges... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z GFS works for me. Quite surprised my point and click has no mention of rain at all. Its 42 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Back down to 43/29 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 yes...pretty ugly.,.I think we might be able to discern something by 9-10 pm or so.....not going to sweat DCA too much, but would like to be down to 36-37 IMBY...GFS has me at 39 at midnight...that would be problematic, but I don't buy it..44/28 now...I think we are in pretty good shape if we get decent rates...We aren't going to be 36 and 0.5 mi viz at 3 am It's not really all that different than the 12Z run-- just mostly warmer in the first phase through 12Z as you pointed out. This isn't one of those deals where we have to wait until waking up in the morning to figure out whether it's right. The rain/snow transition we can watch start to happen before bedtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Always fun to look at the max potential maps. NWS sees some upside. I should add that their minimum snowfall is 0 south of the northern tier counties and only an inch for the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Carroll County dewpoint sensor rearing it's ugly head again. Doubting that 34 degree reading when even DCA is below freezing. WestminsterDeathBand hit the nail on the head. Biggest nowcasting issue this evening will be Temp Watch 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 340 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016 VALID 00Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 00Z FRI FEB 12 2016 DAYS 1 THROUGH 3... ...MID ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING DAY 1. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING HOW THE THERMAL FIELDS SET UP ALONG THE TROUGH...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS EVENT COULD HAVE SOME ELEVATION DEPENDENCIES WITH IT. BASED ON THE SPREAD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUES AND ELEVATION ISSUES...THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 12Z NAM/GFS/09Z SREF MEAN BLEND. THE WPC QPF WAS BASED ON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPF DAY 1... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SPINS UP ON A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FILLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST BEFORE 09/12Z. THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE OH AND TN VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM) AFTER 09/06Z...AND THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE A BLOOM OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY WARM AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE SYSTEMS...AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARM THROUGH AT LEAST 09/06Z. EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS WHEN THE COLUMN SATURATES..AND THE INITIAL AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN 09/06Z AND 09/12Z. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE BEST LIFT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN LESS ACCUMULATION. CLOSER TO THE FALL LINE...THE EVENT BECOMES MORE ELEVATION DRIVEN... AS THE INITIALLY WARM BOUNDARY IS OVERCOME BY THE COOLING IN THE SATURATED COLUMN. THIS IS SHOWN WELL BY THE 12Z NAM...WHICH INDICATES THAT RIMING COULD BE ENOUGH OF A FACTOR FOR LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSE TO THE FALL LINE. A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MD/NORTHERN VA...WHERE RIMING AND PRECIPITATION PHASE PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL SHOULD LIE FROM NORTHERN WV ACROSS NORTHERN MD AND EASTERN VA INTO SOUTHEAST PA/NORTHERN DE/SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED. IN THIS AXIS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND 09Z SREF OUTPUT. GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND...AND THE CONVECTIVE ASPECT COULD RESULT IN HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST LIFT EXISTS BETWEEN 09/12Z AND 09/18Z FROM WEST TO EAST...AFTER WHICH TIME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 DCA, 45/29....the fear of a 51 degree reading today didn't come to fruition thankfully...I think temps are in good shape.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 DCA, 45/29....the fear of a 51 degree reading today didn't come to fruition thankfully...I think temps are in good shape.. You're more optimistic than I am. Maybe we'll get lucky and get under a convective band. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD340 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016VALID 00Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 00Z FRI FEB 12 2016DAYS 1 THROUGH 3......MID ATLANTIC/OH VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTWILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACKACROSS NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING DAY 1. THERE IS SOMESPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING HOW THE THERMAL FIELDS SET UPALONG THE TROUGH...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS EVENT COULDHAVE SOME ELEVATION DEPENDENCIES WITH IT. BASED ON THESPREAD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ISSUESAND ELEVATION ISSUES...THE THERMAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WASBASED ON A 12Z NAM/GFS/09Z SREF MEAN BLEND. THE WPC QPF WAS BASEDON THE MOST RECENT WPC QPFDAY 1...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SPINS UP ON A LOW LEVELBOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FILLING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREATLAKES TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST BEFORE 09/12Z.THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL INFLOWAHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE OH AND TN VALLEY. MODELSOUNDINGS SHOWED STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 8.0C/KM) AFTER 09/06Z...AND THE STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT IS EXPECTED TOINITIATE A BLOOM OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE ANDDEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE.THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS INITIALLY WARM AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL ANDSURFACE SYSTEMS...AND A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THETROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYERWARM THROUGH AT LEAST 09/06Z. EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURS WHEN THECOLUMN SATURATES..AND THE INITIAL AREA OF RAIN WILL BEGIN TOTRANSITION TO SNOW BETWEEN 09/06Z AND 09/12Z. SOUTH AND EAST OFTHE FALL LINE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THESNOW TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE BEST LIFT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN LESSACCUMULATION. CLOSER TO THE FALL LINE...THE EVENT BECOMES MOREELEVATION DRIVEN... AS THE INITIALLY WARM BOUNDARY IS OVERCOME BYTHE COOLING IN THE SATURATED COLUMN. THIS IS SHOWN WELL BY THE 12ZNAM...WHICH INDICATES THAT RIMING COULD BE ENOUGH OF A FACTOR FORLOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSE TO THE FALL LINE.A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERNMD/NORTHERN VA...WHERE RIMING AND PRECIPITATION PHASE PROBLEMS AREEXPECTED. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL SHOULD LIE FROM NORTHERN WVACROSS NORTHERN MD AND EASTERN VA INTO SOUTHEAST PA/NORTHERNDE/SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ISEXPECTED. IN THIS AXIS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ISEXPECTED...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND09Z SREF OUTPUT. GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUNDERIS POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND...AND THE CONVECTIVE ASPECT COULD RESULTIN HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE BEST LIFT EXISTS BETWEEN 09/12ZAND 09/18Z FROM WEST TO EAST...AFTER WHICH TIME LIGHT SNOW ORMIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. There is no forecast for 4-8" anywhere in VA.. wonder what they mean by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 DCA, 45/29....the fear of a 51 degree reading today didn't come to fruition thankfully...I think temps are in good shape.. I was surprised we didn't go higher here as well considering the copious amounts of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 41F here. Hoping to hit mid 30s before precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 DCA, 45/29....the fear of a 51 degree reading today didn't come to fruition thankfully...I think temps are in good shape.. I remember DCA was 42° when the flakes started flying on 2/22/87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 You're more optimistic than I am. Maybe we'll get lucky and get under a convective band. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk rates are really what it is all about...GFS doesn't get us into good stuff until later overnight which is partly why temps are elevated...I feel pretty good about at least 2"...I'd put at least 2" at 60% This seems about right for your backyard At least cartopper - 90% At least 1" - 75% At least 2" - 60% At least 3" - 45% At least 4" - 25% 5"+ - 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There is no forecast for 4-8" anywhere in VA.. wonder what they mean by this. I don't understand my area being in that zone. But they are the professionals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 St. Patrick's day had snow with temps in the 40s because the upper atmosphere was so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.