87storms Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 i think at this point you just play the river card and hope it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Jesus. I was just pointing out that snow growth was ideal aloft with the caveat that we aren't seeing 15:1 with surface temps so warm. It's possible whoever gets an inch of liquid does better than 10:1. I know it's a strawman, but I get amused when people sweat sfc temps overnight in early Feb...33 is golden, and likely temps would be 32 anyway...of course that assumes the NAM/Euro are right with temps...If it is -SN and 34, could kind of suck in Urban Heat Island hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Jesus. I was just pointing out that snow growth was ideal aloft with the caveat that we aren't seeing 15:1 with surface temps so warm. It's possible whoever gets an inch of liquid does better than 10:1. Has anyone suggested we were getting 15:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So wait, is the RGEM sick good or sick bad? Well, NY and Hi-Z are happy, but not sure what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So wait, is the RGEM sick good or sick bad? Considering that Highzenburg breathlessly ran in to tell us it was super north of 12z, I'm assuming it's good for Philly area Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Well, NY and Hi-Z are happy, but not sure what that means.Aside from likely wrong, not too good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Considering that Highzenburg breathlessly ran in to tell us it was super north of 12z, I'm assuming it's good for Philly area Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk And you would be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Substantial instability advertised on the HRR for 05z @ KGAI (Midnight at Gaithersburg). A select few are in for fun. Mid levels are nice and cold, no layer of warmth to contend with. In fact, lapse rates approach -8 c/km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 March 9, 1999 comes to mind after looking at hi-res nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Substantial instability advertised on the HRR for 05z @ KGAI (Midnight at Gaithersburg). A select few are in for fun. Mid levels are nice and cold, no layer of warmth to contend with. In fact, lapse rates approach -8 c/km KGAI)05z02092016.JPG Geez -8! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Look what rgem had for ene last night and compare it to the 12z. It's all over the place like the rest of the short range models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Like usual it's a spot on map. Good job Mark. How is it spot on when nothing has happened yet? I mean...it may turn out right (and his calls are usually pretty good), but this is a really tough forecast. I wouldn't put a scratch and sniff on that map just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Look what rgem had for ene last night and compare it to the 12z. It's all over the place like the rest of the short range models It doesn't look that different to me comparing 12z and 18z on tropical tidbits, maybe I'm just missing something. ETA: For the DC area, I can see it expanded the precip up through SE PA a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 RGEM is still preety good North of BWI, good for Baltimore and NEMD Pummeled, also is a little drier than last run, basically shows a 3-6" snow (10:1 Equivalant) from Baltimore to NYC. Jack is just west of Lancaster. DC is OK in terms of vs forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Nice trough. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/h5-loop-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 18z RGEM has spotty activity through 12z then ramps things up nicely from hr18-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 RGEM really didn't look much different than 12z. The position of the low was very similar. The fact is that the heaviest snows will set up somewhere between dc and philly, we won't know until it's happening. Should be a fun nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Thru 15 hours the GFS has shifted the area of maximum QPF south, and is from DC eastward. Should probably go report that to the Philly forum. ETA: looks a lot like the NAM at 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Thru 15 hours the GFS has shifted the area of maximum QPF south, and is from DC eastward. Should probably go report that to the Philly forum. ETA: looks a lot like the NAM at 21. And the NYC forum. And our forum twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS looks like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS is a smashing and it's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS just GFS'd us. OmG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 And the NYC forum. And our forum twice. LOL yeah, it looks a touch warmer than 12z but it was sort of on its own with the freezing line being near DC during the day tomorrow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 We really are just popping these 990-ish or stronger lows like they're nothing this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 lol book it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GFS is a smashing and it's cold. DPs 33-35 for the whole event in DC. Not cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So. What do we do now? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So. What do we do now? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Wait around for our 3:1 ratio snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So. What do we do now? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Wait to see where the ball of snow shows up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 DPs 33-35 for the whole event in DC. Not cold.cache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.