Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 4k Nam is usually pretty good inside of 24 hours. Likely overdone but a good representation of an unstable atmosphere with a norlun. My guess is the northern tier are the heavy favorites regardless. But I'm not mad at the run...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Gotta hold those dews down sub freezing or this is a total nonevent. Thanks Debbie Downer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Too many wet blankets in here. GTFO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks like east of DC gets hit really hard. DC only with 7" This run was hilarious. It has extremely heavy snow right over my house for like 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 IMBY post - I am holding Doritos out for the storm so it will move west! Pretty wild run! Would like a bigger precip shield back west, but I am begging! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SPsnowman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 just an observation from a non-weather knowing lurker. there is more forced "expectation lowering" going on here than the day before a election debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 If RGEM/GFS come in with even half of the NAM, I'll take this seriously. Until then, we're still on slush watch. These norluns can be pretty dynamic though, right? I'm not saying the NAM is right but the idea that someone gets dumped on isn't too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 taken literally, 4k NAM would be 8-12" for DC Soooo... you're saying there is a chance. j/k j/k - great run but yeah... very hard to believe (so unlikely). But if we can get under the good bands, possible I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think I found a new profile pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 These norluns can be pretty dynamic though, right? I'm not saying the NAM is right but the idea that someone gets dumped on isn't too crazy. Oh, I totally agree..with these types of features, there's usually some surprises and somebody gets dumped on...I just don't think it'll be like the NAM shows. I'd favor the usual suspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think I found a new profile pic. It's still not done snowing either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 4k Nam is usually pretty good inside of 24 hours. Likely overdone but a good representation of an unstable atmosphere with a norlun. My guess is the northern tier are the heavy favorites regardless. But I'm not mad at the run...lol for MBY, QPF only increased 1.35" from the 12z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 With all this talk of convective madness does this have any resemblence to 11/87? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 They're fine 32-33 for hours and hours..It would be a warmer version of 3/9/99... That's good enough for temps and its a month earlier. Ground decently chilly as well. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I think I found a new profile pic. If half of this falls, no one should ever complain again. This is like $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 for MBY, QPF only increased 1.35" from the 12z run... Thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Usually .5 to 1 inch more than town. One storm we got over an inch and the Burg had nothing. You still have at least 50 percent areal snowpack coverage too, some of which is at least 8 inches deep. Actually the 8 inch amts might be more toward CharlesTown, but even so you have some snow depth in place. You'll do well. Enjoy it. Like I always say, If you got the climo, you'll get the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 With all this talk of convective madness does this have any resemblence to 11/87? I was also thinking feb 87 which was a torrential snow blitz though I guess different setup. I have the KU book so may check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Heck of a run to kick off happy hour. Just shows that everybody is still in the game, not just northern or northeast md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 For the life of me, I can't figure out my forecast. As much as I want to believe there's a chance of a few inches of snow here, I can't find anything to back that up. Yet, every time I look at something out of LWX, they up the ante. Just don't see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 The sim radar panels are just silly. Yellows around DC for like 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There is zero chance the NAM is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 for MBY, QPF only increased 1.35" from the 12z run... True. Big jump and 0z run will be important for consistency. But it moved towards other guidance in general even if too much precip. RGEM could be fun. Or sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 There is zero chance the NAM is right not not wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 True. Big jump and 0z run will be important for consistency. But it moved towards other guidance in general even if too much precip. RGEM could be fun. Or sad. I think the NAM looks very similar to the Euro with its orientation and similar to the RGEM with its amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Temps in 4k NAM look similar to the Euro (maybe a little cooler in the afternoon on Tuesday but that's probably because it shows more snow than the Euro during that time). Still, while the precip is almost guaranteed to be overdone, the temp profiles look better. At least when comparing this run to the 12z Euro... and what previous runs of the RGEM have been spitting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Best VV's are at 700mb lining up with the DGZ. Of course ratios are going to be hurt by the warm surface temps but at least there will be some big flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It is so funny. When the NAM doesn't show what we want it is a horrible model. When it does show us what we want it is in it wheelhouse. Got to love weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Best VV's are at 700mb lining up with the DGZ. Of course ratios are going to be hurt by the warm surface temps but at least there will be some big flakes. Sfc temp has no relation to ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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