Quasievil Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Honestly everyone, these QPF numbers are meaningless if these thermal profiles look like they do on the Euro. I'm trying to understand LWX's rationale for AACO and Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That's a pretty scene. Where is it? Snowshoe. 4 or 5 really good hi-def cams up there. http://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/web-cams/silver-creek-web-cam.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yeah I think for the 15z-00z period tomorrow unless you're in the middle of a good band you're probably not going to accumulate efficiently/at all......unless the GFS scores a temp coup. though I think much of the reason for the temps is lack of heavier precip...this is a pretty good overnight/morning event...rush hour could be fun... This could be like a 2/25/14 for us...wake up to a couple inches and then it gets warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Honestly everyone, these QPF numbers are meaningless if these thermal profiles look like they do on the Euro. I'm trying to understand LWX's rationale for AACO and Baltimore. They aren't hugging the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That's a pretty scene. Where is it? Looks like Snowshoe's cam at bottom of runs off Ballhooter lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This entire thread should be blown up. There went 10 minutes of my life that I can never get back. It's a standard thread for a potentially marginal event for some people....backyard-itis, lots of banter, and I threw some shade at government mets, weenies and the NAM...Didn't you used to live in a better area for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Should be some interesting radar presentations over the next 24-36 hours. Even though the largest 6 hour total on the euro panels is .3 (parkton/manchester area) and a splattering of .2 areas I would imagine that the precip falls fairly quickly as is common with inv troughs. this, and I just want to see the reliable models placing that trough over our area. I am confident that within that area there will be some crazy convective "death bands" and the models will not accurately place them or pick up their intensity. The globals are basically white washing everything in that zone. Someone that is in that general .5 qpf area on the GFS/Euro/RGEM will end up with an inch qpf and a nice 10" surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm taking the over for Fozz and even us. I think that once the precip starts, the surface is going to get cold from 70 north.I hope you are right, but I have my doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I hope you are right but I have my doubts. you're in a really good spot...enjoy the event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I hope you are right but I have my doubts. Lol It's funny that you responded when you did. I was reading PSU's post, for some odd reason thought of you, and refreshed to see your name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 It's a standard thread for a potentially marginal event for some people....backyard-itis, lots of banter, and I threw some shade at government mets, weenies and the NAM...Didn't you used to live in a better area for snow? Eh, I am originally from Wisconsin. Most events there are pretty boring as they end up getting nickeled/dimed throughout winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 you're in a really good spot...enjoy the event!Thanks Matt, i hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'm taking the over for Fozz and even us. I think that once the precip starts, the surface is going to get cold from 70 north. I agree. Measurement won't be easy though. I think this is going to be one of those events where the north side of my house sees more than the south side, and white surfaces see more than dark ones. Here's my estimated qpf as snow IMBY for the event (very rough estimates - this involves a lot of squinting at maps). I think Fozz would be a little higher. RGEM: 1.2 UKMET: 0.85 GFS: 0.8 Euro: 0.65 DWD (why not): 0.65 HRDPS: 0.6 NAM: 0.35 NAM4K: 0.3 Average: 0.675 If that average is about right, we'd need about 6:1 ratios to hit 4". I think we could do it if we get some snow on the ground before sun comes up, which I think we will. The upper levels will be plenty cold. I have a question for the more knowledgable posters: will the relatively cold upper levels have much of an impact on how quickly the surface can cool? I.e. if we have good rates, how much will the temperatue of the flakes that are falling matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Yes I guess it is a mute point now about Watches and Warnings Shhhhh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 FWIW, RAP has about .3-.4" QPF through 12z tomorrow. According to it, we changeover between 2 and 3 AM. Temps are kinda meh though. DC stays above freezing through 7 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 This storm reminds me of crabbing, when you catch that one really enormous crab, but you put him in your cooler and realize that he's just not moving all that well and he has a few blacks splotches on his shell. Also he a strange yellow color instead of that healthy green with the blue tips. It's like damn, but you aren't comfortable enough to take a chance on eating him because you know he's not right. LOL I have never read any thing like this before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 My forecast for DC for my friends - Update on snow for DC Proper - This is totally low confidence. Model divergence is high and temps are borderline. It is a weird setup. Precip type is variable, and intensity and timing are uncertain. A complete bust wouldn't surprise me. Repeat - low confidence. Now that we have gotten that out of the way. 7pm - Midnight - Rain/mix eventually changing to all snow. Temps dropping from low 40s to low to mid 30s. Little or no accumulation. Midnight - 8 am - Snow, occasionally moderate, temps in lower 30s. We may wake up to a couple inches, but streets shouldn't be terrible. 8 am - 5 pm - Snow eventually becoming lighter in the afternoon and potentially mixing with rain. Eventually tapering to flurries/drizzle. Temps in mid 30s. Perhaps some additional accumulation, but mainly on grass. Total accumulation: 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 LOL I have never read any thing like this beforeThat's because your not a crabber. It makes perfect sence. I totally agree with him lol.So.. why is their a WSW? NWS has me getting 1-3" of slush. Whatever.. just padding now. Clouds building in from the west. Temp 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Sunny and 46 at my office in Leesburg right now. Torched up out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 My forecast for DC for my friends - Update on snow for DC Proper - This is totally low confidence. Model divergence is high and temps are borderline. It is a weird setup. Precip type is variable, and intensity and timing are uncertain. A complete bust wouldn't surprise me. Repeat - low confidence. Now that we have gotten that out of the way. 7pm - Midnight - Rain/mix eventually changing to all snow. Temps dropping from low 40s to low to mid 30s. Little or no accumulation. Midnight - 8 am - Snow, occasionally moderate, temps in lower 30s. We may wake up to a couple inches, but streets shouldn't be terrible. 8 am - 5 pm - Snow eventually becoming lighter in the afternoon and potentially mixing with rain. Eventually tapering to flurries/drizzle. Temps in mid 30s. Perhaps some additional accumulation, but mainly on grass. Total accumulation: 2-3". Good forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 My forecast for DC for my friends - Update on snow for DC Proper - This is totally low confidence. Model divergence is high and temps are borderline. It is a weird setup. Precip type is variable, and intensity and timing are uncertain. A complete bust wouldn't surprise me. Repeat - low confidence. Now that we have gotten that out of the way. 7pm - Midnight - Rain/mix eventually changing to all snow. Temps dropping from low 40s to low to mid 30s. Little or no accumulation. Midnight - 8 am - Snow, occasionally moderate, temps in lower 30s. We may wake up to a couple inches, but streets shouldn't be terrible. 8 am - 5 pm - Snow eventually becoming lighter in the afternoon and potentially mixing with rain. Eventually tapering to flurries/drizzle. Temps in mid 30s. Perhaps some additional accumulation, but mainly on grass. Total accumulation: 2-3". Sounds good. Covered the bases for possible disappointment but reasonable expectations on middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 That's because your not a crabber. It makes perfect sence. I totally agree with him lol. So.. why is their a WSW? NWS has me getting 1-3" of slush. Whatever.. just padding now. Clouds building in from the west. Temp 44. AA needs to be divided like bmore, Howard, et al, counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 My forecast for DC for my friends - Update on snow for DC Proper - This is totally low confidence. Model divergence is high and temps are borderline. It is a weird setup. Precip type is variable, and intensity and timing are uncertain. A complete bust wouldn't surprise me. Repeat - low confidence. Now that we have gotten that out of the way. 7pm - Midnight - Rain/mix eventually changing to all snow. Temps dropping from low 40s to low to mid 30s. Little or no accumulation. Midnight - 8 am - Snow, occasionally moderate, temps in lower 30s. We may wake up to a couple inches, but streets shouldn't be terrible. 8 am - 5 pm - Snow eventually becoming lighter in the afternoon and potentially mixing with rain. Eventually tapering to flurries/drizzle. Temps in mid 30s. Perhaps some additional accumulation, but mainly on grass. Total accumulation: 2-3". 2-3" is a great # for DC right now. Nice forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 47/29 in NW DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 FWIW, RAP has about .3-.4" QPF through 12z tomorrow. According to it, we changeover between 2 and 3 AM. Temps are kinda meh though. DC stays above freezing through 7 AM. Too bad 18z RAP is overdone... it looks very nice for DCA north in to MD re accumulated snow through 18 hrs on the AmWx model page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Mean snowfall at DCA down an inch. Pretty large percentage drop from the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 17z run of the HRRRx which runs to 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 NAM doesn't get DC cold until 2-3am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 17z run of the HRRRx which runs to 24 hours The "experiment" of the RAP is always hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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