hazwoper Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Where's hazwoper? I'm here....and SNJ is now shafted.Again, not a big event and not area wide. Models all over the place even after we've already begun It's been snowing here for 2 hrs and barely a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is going to catch many off guard tomorrow as they go to work see off and on flurries and 1" or less on the ground and say what storm then intensifies during the afternoon rush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is going to catch many off guard tomorrow as they go to work see off and on flurries and 1" or less on the ground and say what storm then intensifies during the afternoon rush Yes, but I think that area is going to be very narrow. If it sets up right over city..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Where's hazwoper? Any more comments? No? Great, thanks for playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Any more comments? No? Great, thanks for playing. jeez someone can't take a joke... a little early to be claiming victory considering the norlun trough hasn't even set up yet but congrats have a cookie!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Radar looks like garbage, latest short range hi-res models look like garbage. Downgrading from my 2-5" call to a general 1-3" storm total for my area. I see no evidence attm to support my original total. Good call on the advisories from the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I agree with you. This whole thing is garbage. Radar looks like garbage, latest short range hi-res models look like garbage. Downgrading from my 2-5" call to a general 1-3" storm total for my area. I see no evidence attm to support my original total. Good call on the advisories from the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Mt. Holly seeing something still in modeling though....just issued this. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM ESTWEDNESDAY...* LOCATIONS...MARYLAND`S EASTERN SHORE, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEWJERSEY* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXCEPT AROUND5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH CECILCOUNTY MARYLAND AND NEW CASTLE COUNTY DELAWARE.* TIMING...PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WHENIT FALLS AT A HEAVIER RATE. SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FALL AT AMODERATE TO HEAVY RATE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCECIL COUNTY MARYLAND AND NORTHERN NEW CASTLE COUNTY DELAWARE.MEANWHILE FROM SUSSEX AND SOUTHERN KENT COUNTIES IN DELAWARE TOCAPE MAY AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, SNOWSHOULD NOT BE A TRAVEL HAZARD UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OREVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING AND INTERMITTENTPRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW.* IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL AFFECT TRAVEL THROUGHTONIGHT...INCLUDING THE LATE DAY COMMUTE AND ESPECIALLY INCECIL COUNTY MARYLAND AND NEW CASTLE COUNTY DELAWARE. THE ROADCONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE DURING TIMES OF HEAVIERSNOWFALL RATES LATER TODAY. REMEMBER... BRIDGES AND OTHERELEVATED SURFACES TEND TO BECOME SLIPPERY FIRST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I thought today was supposed to be a whole lot of nothing with accumulating snows moving in late afternoon/early evening. And by accumulating snows, this always had the look of a 1-3, 2-4 inch type of deal with maybe someone scoring a jackpot of 5" or 6". I'm not ready to call this a bust just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 turning into a real nice morning here in Wilmington...sun's out, birds are chirping...looks like we may be about to see a decent band, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 My guess is Mt. Holly is thinking the Norlun sets up somewhere along the PA/MD line running through lower SEPA and northern DE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 This was always going to be an 18z onward event today so mid afternoon and night for majority accumulations That said the the candadian models WAY too wet 0z with their 4-8" and the americans also beefed things up too far. UKMET was persistent showing near .5" that also looks overdone. 2-4" is looking like the best range with only the 4" being wherever the best banding sets up, 0z ECM was its "wettest" run with 2" for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Harrisburg is going to be the biggest loser that area out west of Philly had been the focus of best QPF for days Now looks like NYC has the best chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I am very skeptical that a strong Norlun could setup as far south as Delaware. Its largely a meteorological form of the Western New England area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GFS still showing something in around next Tuesday. If the GGEM and Euro still have it someone should start a thread. Let's keep the sub forum somewhat active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Abysmal model performance even as the event is in progress, 12z GGEM targets Harrisburg 4-5" and around 2-3" for rest of us in PA, GFS and NAM focus north of that region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Abysmal model performance even as the event is in progress, 12z GGEM targets Harrisburg 4-5" and around 2-3" for rest of us in PA, GFS and NAM focus north of that region How much for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 How much for Philly According to the Hardyharharrrrr .08" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 How much for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Why do I feel like this is a storm that just highlights that even most of the people paid to forecast the weather only look at models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Why do I feel like this is a storm that just highlights that even most of the people paid to forecast the weather only look at models? Its possible that it is all that is asked of them. Also, the program director or whomever is in charge insists that they are not to embellish of forecast potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I gave mt holly props for doing their best the last few days. Forecasting headaches galore with this one. Monday's near miss, coastal flooding uncertainty , today's whack a mole / hit or miss Frontogentic event , etc.. and people should stop complaining with all the "why did mt holly do this or that"....it makes everybody sound like their 10 years old or something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Why do I feel like this is a storm that just highlights that even most of the people paid to forecast the weather only look at models? bc that's all you know how to do, and you don't have the years of study and real-world practice to understand the meteorology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I gave mt holly props for doing their best the last few days. Forecasting headaches galore with this one. Monday's near miss, coastal flooding uncertainty , today's whack a mole / hit or miss Frontogentic event , etc.. and people should stop complaining with all the "why did mt holly do this or that"....it makes everybody sound like their 10 years old or something.. agreed, and it is probably why there is not a single met that posts in our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 This is an embarrassing post...I hope it gets deleted! We are very fortunate to have in my humble opinion the best NWSFO here at Mt Holly. I look at a lot of other sources but for my forecast I rely on - no one tops our Mt. Holly Team!! Why do I feel like this is a storm that just highlights that even most of the people paid to forecast the weather only look at models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 How do we know shemATC's post is targeted towards Mount Holly? The way I read and interpreted it was towards tv Mets...and I won't go into specific people. Don't take it so personally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 Might be my bad....I assumed he meant NWS but either way it is not an exact perfect science and I appreciate all who work in this area. If some feel I over reacted I apologize Paul How do we know shemATC's post is targeted towards Mount Holly? The way I read and interpreted it was towards tv Mets...and I won't go into specific people. Don't take it so personally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Might be my bad....I assumed he meant NWS but either way it is not an exact perfect science and I appreciate all who work in this area. If some feel I over reacted I apologize Paul I can see why there might have been the assumption, because I did see the frequent changes on the snow accumulation maps at mt Holly's site which might have led to this conclusion. One other thing I do notice is the amount of available information we get here, plus how many highly qualified board members can analyze it and offer analysis. This could possibly lead to a board member commenting about an "other" forecast that aren't as up to date or inaccurate. Toss in the amount of passion that we have here at amwx, it will happen from time to time.Also, my post which stated "don't take it personally" I should have made it clearer it wasn't directed towards you, but just in general....my apologies also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 No one should complain about the forecast. These events are notorious from my experience for either under OR over performing. Extremely difficult to determine where and even if these norlun features will set up. Glad I saw any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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