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Light to Moderate Snow Event / Norlun Trough 2/8-10


ChescoWx

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Not a bad idea. Someone 's going to see something from this. Funny thing, this and the CPA forums are the slowest with posts. I've needed to go to the NYC and Mid Atlantic forums to get any good information.

What's also funny is that every time a merge is discussed to get more activity in our forum it's shot down by a majority of this forum, mostly people with less than 200 posts. I always see these posts complaining about the lack of activity but whenever change is offered to fix this, the majority of people don't want said change but k digress...
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6z NAM came North, latest SREFS followed and bumped North.....Southern and SE PA jackpot. This is almost exactly what the NAM did prior to the blizzard where it scored a coup fwiw. And IIRC the RGEM kept increasing qpf farther South til the last second before bumping it North. Redux?? I think the MA crew are setting themselves up for heartbreak but what do I know? They are talking 1' totals. With such a delicate setup, expect less and be surprised if u get more.

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The NAM does look good for us, but this is such a localized event it's hard to have confidence in any one solution. I think tomorrow will be a lot of watching the radar and looking out the window.

 

Yep

 

Short range meso models will be key tonight.  This is why I said yesterday that anyone pinning their hopes on a norlun even two days out is setting themselves up for dissapointment.  Lets just see how it plays out.  regardless, I love tracking these type of events.  amazing to watch them develop.

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beautiful for SE PA...will be trapped at PHL if it verifies :(

PHL proper *may* have mixing issues for a period if this verifies verbatim. I'm sitting pretty in lower central Bucks County.....again, verbatim. NAM leading the way this winter? Or just back to its old self? Guess we will know in about 24+ hours. The N trend under 30 hours cant be denied this winter.
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Yep

Short range meso models will be key tonight. This is why I said yesterday that anyone pinning their hopes on a norlun even two days out is setting themselves up for dissapointment. Lets just see how it plays out. regardless, I love tracking these type of events. amazing to watch them develop.

You also stated this was a dead threat 2 days ago, so....yeah. Agreed with tempering expectations with this. It's essentially akin to pinpointing where a pop-up summer thunderstorm will develop. You can generalize an area but just cant be any more precise than that at this time.
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You also stated this was a dead threat 2 days ago, so....yeah. Agreed with tempering expectations with this. It's essentially akin to pinpointing where a pop-up summer thunderstorm will develop. You can generalize an area but just cant be any more precise than that at this time.

Dead event for majority of subforum...yes.  A norlun that is extremeliy localized is not a major event.  There is still a good chance that it willbe not much of an event.  I don't consider a 1-3" event much when models days ago showed a massive coastal

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