Morris Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 the 12z gfs continues with the theme of slightly backing off on 0 potential Same minimum of 3 as 6z. Didn't show anything colder yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro consistent at -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 As a lover of cold and extremes it will be interesting following this out break...Like NYC, my station has not been below 0 since 1994 but did manage 0 degrees last February...just have a feeling I'll get stuck at 0 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think we go below zero on the island. Plenty of snow cover. The city not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still just below 0 on the NAM. Exactly the same on 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Why did Upton increase NYC's forecast minimum from 1 to 3 today? NAM and Euro hasn't waivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Why did Upton increase NYC's forecast minimum from 1 to 3 today? NAM and Euro hasn't waivered.Gfs backed off negative 30 at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs backed off negative 30 at 850 GFS is weighted/trusted more when it comes to temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CMC is also only 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is weighted/trusted more when it comes to temps? When it comes to an outbreak like this the model numbers and MOS can usually be undercut, sometimes inside 36 hours they will catch on, I still think NYC sees 0 or 1. I'm not sure if they get to -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Park is down to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Why do different urban areas need different temperatures at 850 to hit zero? Extreme example: Montreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Why do different urban areas need different temperatures at 850 to hit zero? Extreme example: Montreal Part of it is air mass trajectory, did the air pass over the Great Lakes. Being on the littoral also ameliorates the temperature as well, which is not an issue for Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18 at midnight. Too bad for the cheap midnight high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS consistent with 3 being it. Same with the CMC and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Some nice CAA going on currently. Remember during 98 this would be about as cold as we get. So Saturday night during a super Nino is super anomalous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 18 at midnight. Too bad for the cheap midnight high today. highs are going to be in the upper 20's to near 30 today.. you must be thinking about saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I was referring to Thursday. As long as I'm up, it's still today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro -1 NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 ...this morning 2/12.. KFOK @ 0*...i'm @ 5*.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 ...this morning 2/12.. KFOK @ 0*...i'm @ 5*.. ..KFOK now @ -2*.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That shows the "Freezer" that is the Pine Barrens. Gabreski at -2, Shirley/Brookhaven Airport at 6 and I'm at 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 ..KFOK now @ -2*.. A low of -3. Their first below zero of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised to see the Barrens approach -10 on Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 That shows the "Freezer" that is the Pine Barrens. Gabreski at -2, Shirley/Brookhaven Airport at 6 and I'm at 15. Got down to 12 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It was 7 @ 5 am for the first puppy walk of the day. Up to 12 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 UPTON URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY404 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016...DANGEROUSLY COLD WINDCHILLS THIS WEEKEND...NJZ004-006-104>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-122215-/O.NEW.KOKX.WC.Y.0001.160213T2100Z-160214T1700Z/EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-404 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON ESTSUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILLADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO NOON ESTSUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...METRO NEW YORK CITY AND NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WINDCHILLS.* TIMING...COLDEST WIND CHILLS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLYSUNDAY MORNING.* WIND CHILL...AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 BELOW DUE TO TEMPERATURES OF 5ABOVE TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...AND NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.* IMPACTS...THE FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSEVENTURING OUTSIDE. PROLONGED EXPOSURE MAY CAUSE FROSTBITE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDSWILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT INFROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT ANDGLOVES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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