Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Here is December 25 1980, I can't imagine there was much snow pack to the north or in the area that early on in the season. Notice how the winds were basically WNW all night, 850s looked like they briefly got to -30C. If LGA and NYC did it that night I can't see why they won't do it Sunday. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1980/us1225.php#picture http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLGA/1980/12/25/DailyHistory.html?req_city=La+Guardia&req_state=NY&req_statename=New+York&reqdb.zip=11371&reqdb.magic=6&reqdb.wmo=99999 Interesting that the coldest temps occurred at 9 and 10 am and also never got back above 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think it all comes down to timing with the CAA. If we get that to occur at night we have a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Here is December 25 1980, I can't imagine there was much snow pack to the north or in the area that early on in the season. Notice how the winds were basically WNW all night, 850s looked like they briefly got to -30C. If LGA and NYC did it that night I can't see why they won't do it Sunday. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1980/us1225.php#picture http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLGA/1980/12/25/DailyHistory.html?req_city=La+Guardia&req_state=NY&req_statename=New+York&reqdb.zip=11371&reqdb.magic=6&reqdb.wmo=99999 there was an inch of snow the evening before and 1" was on the ground in Newark the morning of the 25th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Great stuff as always Uncle. thanks...here is 1899's story on the -6 day in February before the blizzard... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50406340/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Looks like tonight's cheap midnight low will also be tomorrow's cheap midnight high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 0z NAM takes the city down to -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 HI RES NAM 850S AND 2M TEMPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 So winds are more N than NW and don't pass over lakes before getting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 From the 2/11/2016 0z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 490 thickness on the GFS for NYC at hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 can nyc bag its first feb record low since 1990? I remember breaking a record low on around the 20th last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS stays at 3. Insisting we don't hit 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I remember breaking a record low on around the 20th last year. for some reason it's not here http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycfeb.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I remember breaking a record low on around the 20th last year. Good memory, Though the nws site has not updated it New Yorkers awakened to the coldest day of the year as the mercury dipped down to just 2 degrees in Central Park — shattering the 65-year-old record low for this date of 7 degrees, which was set back in 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS stays at 3. Insisting we don't hit 0. I think those numbers are semi skewed towards climo so it's not likely that it will show anything near or below 0 til inside 36 hours. 3 is impressive though at this range. I think the days we reached 2, 3 and 4 in recent years the guidance was spitting out 6s 7s and 8s at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 for some reason it's not here http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycfeb.pdf It seems that chart is incorrect. The low temperature was 2° on 2/20, which set a record. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-297C5B05-B524-465D-B880-466B0581E1D8.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NAM (18z 2-10 , 00z 2-11) still far out but gets -30c 850 temps in or very close to NYC. If NYC doesn't hit 0f it will prob only miss by 2-3f degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS now only gets down to 5. Euro and NAM held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Upton has me at -3 sunday morning...looks like the core of the cold air sits right over LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 NYC is on track for its lowest February daily minimum temperature following a 40 degree or higher December and January average since 1932. 15-16......42.7..... 11-12......40.3....20 06-07......40.6...8 01-02......42.0...19 49-50......40.4...6 31-32......42.1...18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If we only had a snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NYC is on track for its lowest February daily minimum temperature following a 40 degree or higher December and January average since 1932. 15-16......42.7..... 11-12......40.3....20 06-07......40.6...8 01-02......42.0...19 49-50......40.4...6 31-32......42.1...18 Looks like lowest thicknesses get to 491 and 850s to - 29 at KNYC . ( Looks slightly colder than last year ) Automated number has 3 at the park . I am going to root for 0 so we put another stamp on this anomalous year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 If we only had a snowpack We have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NYC is on track for its lowest February daily minimum temperature following a 40 degree or higher December and January average since 1932. 15-16......42.7..... 11-12......40.3....20 06-07......40.6...8 01-02......42.0...19 49-50......40.4...6 31-32......42.1...18 I have 13 for the 2011-12 minimum...1950 was quite mild Dec-Jan but Feb-Mar were quite cold...the cold lasted most of April too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That was the January minimum.I posted the February lows. oops sorry...I just found this article about the April 1950 snowfall and cold spell...The city hired a rain maker because there was a drought in progress... http://bklyn.newspap...image/52910802/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/52911107 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Still just below 0 on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Yeah, I am rooting for it also. It would complete the triple crown of NYC winter extremes this year. The warmest December by a wide margin followed by the heaviest daily snowfall in January. March could see 10" of snow or some 80 degree days...or both... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 No problem. This could be our first back to back yearly record lows for February in NYC in quite some time. after a spell where NYC couldn't buy a single digit temperature in February, the last three years had at least one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 the 12z gfs continues with the theme of slightly backing off on 0 potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 The latest MOS guidance for 2/14: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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