Morris Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro is -5 for the city on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro is -5 for the city on Sunday. That would be insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 the gfs shows the peak of the cold happening a little too early to break the record Looks like mid teens during the day Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 forkyfork, on 09 Feb 2016 - 12:11 PM, said:the gfs shows the peak of the cold happening a little too early to break the record Another one of those cases where we bottom out around midnight and don't drop much the rest of the night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro is -5 for the city on Sunday. Not happening. Almost no snow cover to out north. We will be lucky to see +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro is -5 for the city on Sunday. it also showed values like that last year and in 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 the gfs shows the peak of the cold happening a little too early to break the record It looked like 06Z on most models to me, that should be good enough. I think 1-3 degrees is likely at this point, below that I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro is -5 for the city on Sunday. Not a chance in hell that happens. I'll be shocked if they finally hit 0. I'd guess the +3 to +5 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro is -5 for the city on Sunday. Hasn't happened since WWII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Hasn't happened since WWII Yep -8 in the winter of 42/43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Polar Vortex over New England Sat night. 1000-500 mb thk forecast at 486 in NYC beat anything last 30 yrs (inc 1994) https://t.co/9SBMvFtWn2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 0z GFS takes the city down to 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS 00z -30°C at 850-mb for NYC and Boston Sunday morning https://t.co/iPacEFzxPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Polar Vortex over New England Sat night. 1000-500 mb thk forecast at 486 in NYC beat anything last 30 yrs (inc 1994) https://t.co/9SBMvFtWn2 I'm starting to believe that this may have a shot at breaking the 22 year 0 barrier in NYC. If they had a fresh snow cover, they won't, I'd make it a 50-50, without 25-75. The direction it's coming from, almost a straight shot from the NP, down over Quebec and straight down the Hudson, gives it no time to modify. Cold air masses that enter over NW Canada and settle in the upper midwest and eventually get to us are not our ideal setup for record cold, this setup is. The timing of when it settles in may also be ideal to finally make it happen. 2 separate 1 degree readings in 2004, and the 2 degree reading last year both had a fresh fairly deep snow cover, and much colder surrounding water temps. Those are the two missing ingredients, otherwise this would have a great shot. I'll say they finally touch 0 but don't go below. In what has so far been the warmest meteorological winter ever (42.5 degrees through yesterday) and has recorded only 11 days out of 71 below normal since December 1st, that would just add to the oddities that is this winter/extended fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The Euro and GFS have close to the lowest 850 mb temps that we have seen across the region. NWS Albany AFD: 850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS. It's kind of a shame that a bit of wind and lack of deep snow cover will limit how cold we actually get despite the potential record 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 The Euro and GFS have close to the lowest 850 mb temps that we have seen across the region. NWS Albany AFD: 850 HPA TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO DROP TO -30 TO -35 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPS COULD BE RECORD COLD LEVELS FOR 850 HPA TEMPS AT ALBANY...AS THE COLDEST 850 HPA TEMP MEASURED AT KALY IS -30 C ON A FEW PAST OCCASIONS. Interestingly Upstate NY may have the coldest 850 mb temps of the entire northern hemisphere, a mere 250 miles from most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 12z Euro insists we go below zero Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 End of NAM run 6z Saturday has us at 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 IMO KNYC needs due north winds and 850 mb temps below -30 to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 IMO KNYC needs due north winds and 850 mb temps below -30 to get it done. 300-320 is better than 260-290...I looked back at the below 0 days in the 70s and 80s and none had due north winds, they were all 270-330, they just had colder 850s than the last few outbreaks in the 90s and 2000s...the 850s were -27 to -30, these last few were -24 to -26 and the core of the cold air was not timed right...this looks like the best chance since 2004 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 if snowcover wasn't pathetic i'd say the city goes below 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 if snowcover wasn't pathetic i'd say the city goes below 0 I always wonder how much an impact that has though when winds are strong like they need to be for NYC, it didn't help much in 04 at all and we had a fresh pack on the ground too. It definitely could help as far as the air mass modifying but in this case it comes more straight from the north than over the lakes like it usually does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 if snowcover wasn't pathetic i'd say the city goes below 0 What snowcover ? Its non - existent in and around much of the immediate metro - temps will not get below 0 in NYC unless it snows and accumulates by Saturday night - lows will probably remain in the single digits in many locations in the city without snowcover and then rebound by Sunday noon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I always wonder how much an impact that has though when winds are strong like they need to be for NYC, it didn't help much in 04 at all and we had a fresh pack on the ground too. It definitely could help as far as the air mass modifying but in this case it comes more straight from the north than over the lakes like it usually doeswe had 850's below -25 and that was good enough for 1f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 look at the fetch off lake ontario and then look at sfc temps. to the east of the fetch it's colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 1943's arctic outbreak from the Brooklyn Eagle... 1943...Brooklyn Eagle... http://bklyn.newspap...image/52875749/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/52875800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 1943's arctic outbreak from the Brooklyn Eagle... 1943...Brooklyn Eagle... http://bklyn.newspap...image/52875749/ http://bklyn.newspap.../image/52875800 Great stuff as always Uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 300-320 is better than 260-290...I looked back at the below 0 days in the 70s and 80s and none had due north winds, they were all 270-330, they just had colder 850s than the last few outbreaks in the 90s and 2000s...the 850s were -27 to -30, these last few were -24 to -26 and the core of the cold air was not timed right...this looks like the best chance since 2004 to me. Can you post a link for me? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Can you post a link for me? Thanks in advance. Here is December 25 1980, I can't imagine there was much snow pack to the north or in the area that early on in the season. Notice how the winds were basically WNW all night, 850s looked like they briefly got to -30C. If LGA and NYC did it that night I can't see why they won't do it Sunday. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1980/us1225.php#picture http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KLGA/1980/12/25/DailyHistory.html?req_city=La+Guardia&req_state=NY&req_statename=New+York&reqdb.zip=11371&reqdb.magic=6&reqdb.wmo=99999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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