Post Super Bowl Clipper/Upslope/Flizzard Snow Feb 8-10

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Models are consistent in showing a good snow event for the mountains and even a dusting to an inch possible as far south as Atlanta. This is going to be fun !

[gritsnc]

Our local meteorologists are saying mix Monday morning, changing to rain, then changing to snow or mix Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

[toxictwister00]

Thundersnow sounding for ATL on the 6z GFS at hr. 60

Station ID: KATL Lat:   33.64 Long:   84.42                                                        
 GFS Model Run:  6Z  6FEB 2016 Clouds Bases and Tops are now agl
  HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb  MSLP  TCC PRS WX  Low      Middle     High     Max    Min  Sfc
                Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp    mb    %  TEXT   Clouds    Clouds    Clouds    Tmp    Tmp  Vis
   0 02/06 06Z   33     25      92       4    0.00  0.00    545    568   -3.6 -18.5 1029.5   0          CLR       CLR       CLR    ****   **** 20.0
   6 02/06 12Z   30     25      72       4    0.00  0.00    541    565   -4.6 -19.3 1029.7  67          CLR       CLR    243BKN281   33     30 20.0
  12 02/06 18Z   48     27      54       4    0.00  0.00    539    561   -4.9 -21.0 1027.8  43          CLR    162SCT208 222FEW258   48     30 20.0
  18 02/07 00Z   34     29     358       3    0.00  0.00    534    555   -3.7 -25.5 1025.9   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      48     34 20.0
  24 02/07 06Z   32     25     335       5    0.00  0.00    532    552   -3.1 -27.3 1025.1  29          CLR    170SCT200    CLR      35     31 20.0
  30 02/07 12Z   30     24     318       5    0.00  0.00    533    552   -2.6 -25.7 1023.5   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      32     30 20.0
  36 02/07 18Z   50     32     328      10    0.00  0.00    541    558   -2.2 -19.1 1020.9   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      50     30 20.0
  42 02/08 00Z   39     34     283       6    0.00  0.00    543    558   -0.3 -19.9 1018.8   3          CLR       CLR       FEW      51     39 20.0
  48 02/08 06Z   35     32     255       6    0.00  0.00    541    554   -1.0 -20.1 1016.6   0          CLR       CLR       CLR      39     35 12.2
  54 02/08 12Z   39     37     254       9    0.00  0.00    535    544   -2.1 -22.5 1011.4  27 -RA   018SCT073    CLR       FEW      39     35  1.1
  60 02/08 18Z   40     32     276      14    0.05  0.05    526    534   -6.3 -28.3 1009.8  73 -TSSN 028BKN058 106FEW119    CLR      42     38 13.3
  66 02/09 00Z   34     28     279      10    0.02  0.02    525    534   -7.9 -27.3 1011.1  87 -SN   049BKN067    CLR       CLR      41     34 11.2
  72 02/09 06Z   29     24     292       9    0.02  0.00    523    533   -9.2 -25.8 1012.3  37       038SCT051    CLR       CLR      34     28 10.9
  78 02/09 12Z   25     18     299      11    0.01  0.00    522    534  -13.4 -27.3 1014.1  71 -SN   030BKN050    CLR       CLR      30     24 10.1
  84 02/09 18Z   32     20     286      12    0.01  0.01    521    533  -11.2 -29.4 1015.4 100 -SN   028BKN046 180FEW198 213FEW232   32     25 20.0
  90 02/10 00Z   29     22     277       9    0.01  0.01    527    540  -10.6 -24.9 1016.8  98 -SN   037OVC063    CLR       CLR      33     29 13.4

[rosie]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours_home.png

[franklin NCwx]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours_home.png

you should be good for a few inches from this event.

[mackerel_sky]

This is our only chance for awhile, the next weekend storm seems off the table now!? I will enjoy my clipper rain, and let FLO get double my snowfall for the year tomorrow!

[toxictwister00]

From FFC this afternoon

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016


...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH KEEPING PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SC/GA OVERNIGHT. EAST CENTRAL
ZONES ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON RADAR. MEANWHILE...COLD CORE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX
OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THAT EAST CENTRAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTH GA STILL ON TRACK
TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[Tacoma]

From FFC this afternoon

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

319 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MONDAY

INTO TUESDAY THOUGH KEEPING PREVIOUS THOUGHTS ON FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF SC/GA OVERNIGHT. EAST CENTRAL

ZONES ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY

SHOWING UP ON RADAR. MEANWHILE...COLD CORE CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING

INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX

OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THAT EAST CENTRAL

AREA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW

IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST

AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING UPPER

TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD

INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTH GA STILL ON TRACK

TO PRODUCE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE

FAR NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES COLD ENOUGH

FOR ALL SNOW.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

this sounds more bullish than the Asheville area that is in the mtns. of NC, can't figure the mets. out sometimes.

[JoshM]

This is mighty interesting... if we can get a Low to spin up somewhere

 

[FlatLander48]

This is mighty interesting... if we can get a Low to spin up somewhere

Brad P. Has been mentioning a possible surface low forming. We'll see.

[JoshM]

Pack it up fellas, we're moving over here. That Low has shifted a hair south from 18z, so has the precip.

 

[Bsudweather]

Pack it up fellas, we're moving over here. That Low has shifted a hair south from 18z, so has the precip.

All that back in AL will swing up through GA and upstate SC and should give us folks some pretty good snow showers.

[mackerel_sky]

All that back in AL will swing up through GA and upstate SC and should give us folks some pretty good snow showers.

I got 25:1 odds, upstate is rain, if anything !

Gonna be 55 tomorrow and downslope is a b***h

I want to see snow as bad as anyone, clippers just don't get it done 99% of the time

[GlaringSun]

What are the ratios for ATL for this event?

[Cheeznado]

This is typical snow shower situation for NW GA, better amounts west of the perimeter near Dallas for example, and of course in the far northern mountains. Warm surface temps will mean some rain at first Monday, and any snow in the afternoon will not stick. It is overnight and early Tuesday AM where the dusting to 1" amounts may occur, that is almost always the most we can squeeze out of this type of scenario.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

This is typical snow shower situation for NW GA, better amounts west of the perimeter near Dallas for example, and of course in the far northern mountains. Warm surface temps will mean some rain at first Monday, and any snow in the afternoon will not stick. It is overnight and early Tuesday AM where the dusting to 1" amounts may occur, that is almost always the most we can squeeze out of this type of scenario.

I just can't believe FFC doesn't even have me in the flurries area. I thought for sure I'd get a few passing flurries. The map they put out shows no flurries south of I-20.

[Thrasher Fan]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

312 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

GAZ005>009-014>016-081100-

/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0007.160208T1200Z-160210T0000Z/

MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND

312 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST

TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WHICH IS IN

EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...FAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...MAINLY EAST AND NORTH OF A

CHATSWORTH TO DAWSONVILLE TO CLEVELAND AREA.

* HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLACK ICE.

ELEVATIONS AT 2000 FT AND ABOVE WITH GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES SNOW WITH ISOLATED HIGHER

POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...7 AM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY FOR SNOW. BEST CHANCE

OF ANY BLACK ICE WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW/ICE ON ROADS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING

CONDITIONS. EVEN LOCATIONS BELOW 2000 FT HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF

SLICK SPOTS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT FOR REFREEZING OF ANY

PREVIOUS RAIN OR MELTED SNOW.

[NWNC2015]

Winter Storm Watch out for Boone.

[mattwis519]

I find it hard to believe the N. Metro counties will only see a "few flakes". Sounds like typical NWS underestimating.

[superjames1992]

I find it hard to believe the N. Metro counties will only see a "few flakes". Sounds like typical NWS underestimating.

If you believe the 18z NAM, there will be no precipitation in Atlanta, much less snow.

Anyways, FFC is anything but conservative these days.

[PackGrad05]

Any hope for central NC with this one?

[CherokeeGA]

I find it hard to believe the N. Metro counties will only see a "few flakes". Sounds like typical NWS underestimating.

 

That is all we'll see.  Likely some icy roads in the morning. 

 

FFC has gotten a lot better since the last snowmaggedon.  Schoolkids on buses overnight woke people up a bit I suspect.  I have felt their advisories, watches and warnings this winter have been spot on, really.

[toxictwister00]

If you believe the 18z NAM, there will be no precipitation in Atlanta, much less snow.

Anyways, FFC is anything but conservative these days.

 

It depends on what version of the NAM you look at. The 32km version has been lackluster for a couple of days now, meanwhile the 12km and 4km have been very aggressive w/ the snow showers for the past couple of days. There's a decent chance they're wrong though, GFS/EURO/CMC/etc. are no where as widespread with the precip across MS/AL/GA/TN/NC/SC as those two NAM models are. It's still too early to tell which way the HRRR or RAP may go. RGEM looks OK.

 

12km version (18z)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016020718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=100

 

4km version (18z)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016020718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=100

 

EDIT: I should note the two WRF models on tropical tidbits are more in line with the 4/12km NAM models, but I don't know how reliable if at all those models are either.

[mackerel_sky]

Don't care if we get any precip tomorrow or not, I've had enough rain, and I'll enjoy another day in the 50s!

[NWNC2015]

Any hope for central NC with this one?

 

No...downsloping east of the mountains will limit it to wind snow with few snow showers. 

[Bsudweather]

Tues is the day the Upstate could see some snow showers. Even GSP is saying a high of 37 with snow showers bout all day and they are as conservative as they come.

[Tony Sisk]

I got 25:1 odds, upstate is rain, if anything !

Gonna be 55 tomorrow and downslope is a b***h

I want to see snow as bad as anyone, clippers just don't get it done 99% of the time

I don't even waste my time with clippers. They practically never end well in upstate sc

[Cold Rain]

It's very easy. Take the model showing the least amount of snow and slash that by at least 75%, and you'll be in the ballpark of reality.

[Snow haven]

we only have a 20% chance of rain here, had nothing yesterday and doesn't look promising for anything this week either.

[SnowGoose69]

Will be interesting if the SPC WRF is onto something.  It shows a similar scenario over AL/GA tomorrow aftn to what is occurring over Missouri and SWRN IL now.