mattie g Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 CMC and GFS both have some wintry precipitation early next week as you guys have been talking about, and it looks like both have a little clipper swing through a day or 2 after. I'd be on board with small, cold events. I'd like another big one, but if we get a decent period of cold, it'd be nice to have some powder fly along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Looks like a fun arctic front coming through Saturday or Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Euro a foot all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Randy said he didn't want to track this thing until tuesday last week... It looks like his wish came true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 GFS has something around that time period too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 CMC is an all snow event for President's day too with a pretty decent track. Looks like 6"+ all snow. Euro and CMC on board, GFS kinda/sorta. Right where we want things at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 So ukmet, cmc and euro. Day 7. Not 10. Let's ride this one to glory to make up for today's debacle. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Majority of the EPS members show an event that favors the mountains and 81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Para Euro agrees w the EPS. Looks like a really good hit for the mountains. Not so much for the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Majority of the EPS members show an event that favors the mountains and 81 corridor.Yeah, the same ensembles that yesterday gave me 3.5-4" by now this morning. Meh. Trend on the models over the last 24 hours, including the Euro operational, has been to shift the storm east. I'll ride that until the next round of models today. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The western atlantic ridge really flexes leading into the potential but the airmass exiting is a beast. I would think even a flip event would do something. Gotta root for the storm (if there is one) to not drag it's feet. There is nothing showing up to lock the cold high in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yeah, the same ensembles that yesterday gave me 3.5-4" by now this morning. Meh. Trend on the models over the last 24 hours, including the Euro operational, has been to shift the storm east. I'll ride that until the next round of models today. Lol Preach brotha. No point in riding the only two negative tools this far out. We're going on a randytastic ride. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 We don't want too much randytastic. Just enough randytastic is optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I'm getting a bit more interested in the potential for early next week. Though some of that may be due to the relative fail (closer in to town, at least) of today's white rain event so there's not much else to look at! As has been mentioned, we may be in a race between a departing high with some very cold air in place and whatever incoming trough approaches. There's little or nothing to hold the cold in place (where did that darned blocking go that we saw before?). From what I've seen, the flow will be relaxing around that time (early-middle part of next week), so let's hope we can win that race before it happens and score something decent. I'd be up for a solid front-end dumping even if it means getting sort of dry-slotted with some drizzle or sleet. But I don't much care for a thump of snow followed by 40s and lots of rain that will wash it away anyhow (which I think the Euro showed the other day?). GEFS and GFS at least have been indicating that we go to a more amplified flow after the pattern flattens some. There was even some indication of another really cold dump near the last week of the month. Might be interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 None of the regular euro panels for 0z are showing up on wxbell. Para not as cold for Sunday morning. Mostly single digits w the below 0 stuff in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The good news is the para euro is a miller A. The bad news is it takes to long to get up the coast. Still a couple inches with the front end but then a depressing progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 The good news is the para euro is a miller A. The bad news is it takes to long to get up the coast. Still a couple inches with the front end but then a depressing progression. I heard it jackpots areas west of the apps like Pittsburgh and Buffalo. That true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I heard it jackpots areas west of the apps like Pittsburgh and Buffalo. That true? Yes. But it's more from the front running band and not from the big low. It gets pretty warm for just about everyone. It's almost comical how it progresses. As far as local impacts, the good stuff is further west than the op. Basically WV line and not i81. We still get a couple inches. We'll probably see a slew of different looks as time passes this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yes. But it's more from the front running band and not from the big low. It gets pretty warm for just about everyone. It's almost comical how it progresses. As far as local impacts, the good stuff is further west than the op. Basically WV line and not i81. We still get a couple inches. We'll probably see a slew of different looks as time passes this week. At this lead, I'll take the miller A look, and roll the dice that temps improve as event approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yes. But it's more from the front running band and not from the big low. It gets pretty warm for just about everyone. It's almost comical how it progresses. As far as local impacts, the good stuff is further west than the op. Basically WV line and not i81. We still get a couple inches. We'll probably see a slew of different looks as time passes this week. Sounds like our biggest problem is that our high is moving offshore. Hopefully that improves as we near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yes. But it's more from the front running band and not from the big low. It gets pretty warm for just about everyone. It's almost comical how it progresses. As far as local impacts, the good stuff is further west than the op. Basically WV line and not i81. We still get a couple inches. We'll probably see a slew of different looks as time passes this week. You can say that again. Comparing how the models did with the bliz and the system Friday and today, you wouldn't think they were the machines. Anyway, I agree. There's a storm of significance to follow, but don't fall in love with any solution on any model attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Yes. But it's more from the front running band and not from the big low. It gets pretty warm for just about everyone. It's almost comical how it progresses. As far as local impacts, the good stuff is further west than the op. Basically WV line and not i81. We still get a couple inches. We'll probably see a slew of different looks as time passes this week. To my untrained weather logic...How can a cold air mass with single-digit lows a day or two before degrade so much that we end up having temp issues during a potential storm?! Could you enlighten me as to how this could happen (I know nothing is close to being set in stone, of course, but just wondering about how likely that is to happen) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 To my untrained weather logic...How can a cold air mass with single-digit lows a day or two before degrade so much that we end up having temp issues during a potential storm?! Could you enlighten me as to how this could happen (I know nothing is close to being set in stone, of course, but just wondering about how likely that is to happen) It's all because in the early 2000s a bunch of scientists got together and decided to downgrade what it means to be a "big high pressure." In the pre-adjustment days, a wimpy 1010 low would have never been able to push a 1030 high out of the way. But since the great downgrade, every two-bit drizzle-fest low pressure area with dreams of being the Storm of the Century can push a 1030 high off the coast at like 200 miles a hour. That's why the overrunning storm is essentially dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 To my untrained weather logic...How can a cold air mass with single-digit lows a day or two before degrade so much that we end up having temp issues during a potential storm?! Could you enlighten me as to how this could happen (I know nothing is close to being set in stone, of course, but just wondering about how likely that is to happen) It's pretty simple in this case. Look at the area I circled. It's a high pressure vacuum right off the coast. What we want to see there for a big storm is a pretty blue ball. A big red hill = temp problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 It's pretty simple in this case. Look at the area I circled. It's a high pressure vacuum right off the coast. What we want to see there for a big storm is a pretty blue ball. A big red hill = temp problems. euroWAR.JPG Yup, this pretty much sums up what the problem is, at least from last night's run. Good explanation. Unfortunately the "pretty blue ball" is off the southern tip of Greenland, instead of near 50/50 with some nice blocking showing up northeast of there. Oh well. We'll most likely have to hope we can make the best of an imperfect setup. Maybe something like last February, when we were spotted a 20 degree buffer? Unless things change a bit for the better. Lots to see in the upcoming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z GFS wants to know what Day 7 storm you are all talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z GFS wants to know what Day 7 storm you are all talking about The storm is there. It's just weak and off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z GFS wants to know what Day 7 storm you are all talking about right or wrong the gfs for days hasn't been digging the trough enough to pick up the southern energy. Instead it crushes it as a northern vort goes by to our north. Then the stj system starts to develop well ots. Canadien and euro dig the trough more and so pick up that stj energy and bring a storm up to varrying results. Before we even worry about the whole rain snow thing that major difference must be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Weekend cold looks pretty legit though backing down a little as we close. Record soundings for Feb are about -25C at 850mb (since 1948). Could get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 12z GFS wants to know what Day 7 storm you are all talking about You mean the one it has off the Carolina coast on Day 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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