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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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CMC and GFS both have some wintry precipitation early next week as you guys have been talking about, and it looks like both have a little clipper swing through a day or 2 after.

 

I'd be on board with small, cold events.  I'd like another big one, but if we get a decent period of cold, it'd be nice to have some powder fly along with it.

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Majority of the EPS members show an event that favors the mountains and 81 corridor.

Yeah, the same ensembles that yesterday gave me 3.5-4" by now this morning. Meh. Trend on the models over the last 24 hours, including the Euro operational, has been to shift the storm east. I'll ride that until the next round of models today. Lol
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Yeah, the same ensembles that yesterday gave me 3.5-4" by now this morning. Meh. Trend on the models over the last 24 hours, including the Euro operational, has been to shift the storm east. I'll ride that until the next round of models today. Lol

Preach brotha. No point in riding the only two negative tools this far out. We're going on a randytastic ride.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I'm getting a bit more interested in the potential for early next week.  Though some of that may be due to the relative fail (closer in to town, at least) of today's white rain event so there's not much else to look at!  As has been mentioned, we may be in a race between a departing high with some very cold air in place and whatever incoming trough approaches.  There's little or nothing to hold the cold in place (where did that darned blocking go that we saw before?).  From what I've seen, the flow will be relaxing around that time (early-middle part of next week), so let's hope we can win that race before it happens and score something decent.  I'd be up for a solid front-end dumping even if it means getting sort of dry-slotted with some drizzle or sleet.  But I don't much care for a thump of snow followed by 40s and lots of rain that will wash it away anyhow (which I think the Euro showed the other day?).

 

GEFS and GFS at least have been indicating that we go to a more amplified flow after the pattern flattens some.  There was even some indication of another really cold dump near the last week of the month.  Might be interesting times.

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The good news is the para euro is a miller A. The bad news is it takes to long to get up the coast. Still a couple inches with the front end but then a depressing progression.

I heard it jackpots areas west of the apps like Pittsburgh and Buffalo. That true?

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I heard it jackpots areas west of the apps like Pittsburgh and Buffalo. That true?

Yes. But it's more from the front running band and not from the big low. It gets pretty warm for just about everyone. It's almost comical how it progresses.

As far as local impacts, the good stuff is further west than the op. Basically WV line and not i81. We still get a couple inches.

We'll probably see a slew of different looks as time passes this week.

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Yes. But it's more from the front running band and not from the big low. It gets pretty warm for just about everyone. It's almost comical how it progresses.

As far as local impacts, the good stuff is further west than the op. Basically WV line and not i81. We still get a couple inches.

We'll probably see a slew of different looks as time passes this week.

At this lead, I'll take the miller A look, and roll the dice that temps improve as event approaches.

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Yes. But it's more from the front running band and not from the big low. It gets pretty warm for just about everyone. It's almost comical how it progresses.

As far as local impacts, the good stuff is further west than the op. Basically WV line and not i81. We still get a couple inches.

We'll probably see a slew of different looks as time passes this week.

Sounds like our biggest problem is that our high is moving offshore. Hopefully that improves as we near.
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Yes. But it's more from the front running band and not from the big low. It gets pretty warm for just about everyone. It's almost comical how it progresses.

As far as local impacts, the good stuff is further west than the op. Basically WV line and not i81. We still get a couple inches.

We'll probably see a slew of different looks as time passes this week.

You can say that again. Comparing how the models did with the bliz and the system Friday and today, you wouldn't think they were the machines. Anyway, I agree. There's a storm of significance to follow, but don't fall in love with any solution on any model attm.
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Yes. But it's more from the front running band and not from the big low. It gets pretty warm for just about everyone. It's almost comical how it progresses.

As far as local impacts, the good stuff is further west than the op. Basically WV line and not i81. We still get a couple inches.

We'll probably see a slew of different looks as time passes this week.

To my untrained weather logic...How can a cold air mass with single-digit lows a day or two before degrade so much that we end up having temp issues during a potential storm?! Could you enlighten me as to how this could happen (I know nothing is close to being set in stone, of course, but just wondering about how likely that is to happen)
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To my untrained weather logic...How can a cold air mass with single-digit lows a day or two before degrade so much that we end up having temp issues during a potential storm?! Could you enlighten me as to how this could happen (I know nothing is close to being set in stone, of course, but just wondering about how likely that is to happen)

It's all because in the early 2000s a bunch of scientists got together and decided to downgrade what it means to be a "big high pressure." In the pre-adjustment days, a wimpy 1010 low would have never been able to push a 1030 high out of the way. But since the great downgrade, every two-bit drizzle-fest low pressure area with dreams of being the Storm of the Century can push a 1030 high off the coast at like 200 miles a hour. That's why the overrunning storm is essentially dead.

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To my untrained weather logic...How can a cold air mass with single-digit lows a day or two before degrade so much that we end up having temp issues during a potential storm?! Could you enlighten me as to how this could happen (I know nothing is close to being set in stone, of course, but just wondering about how likely that is to happen)

 

It's pretty simple in this case. Look at the area I circled. It's a high pressure vacuum right off the coast. What we want to see there for a big storm is a pretty blue ball. A big red hill = temp problems. 

 

post-2035-0-61344800-1455034403_thumb.jp

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It's pretty simple in this case. Look at the area I circled. It's a high pressure vacuum right off the coast. What we want to see there for a big storm is a pretty blue ball. A big red hill = temp problems. 

 

attachicon.gifeuroWAR.JPG

 

Yup, this pretty much sums up what the problem is, at least from last night's run.  Good explanation.  Unfortunately the "pretty blue ball" is off the southern tip of Greenland, instead of near 50/50 with some nice blocking showing up northeast of there.  Oh well.  We'll most likely have to hope we can make the best of an imperfect setup.  Maybe something like last February, when we were spotted a 20 degree buffer?  Unless things change a bit for the better.  Lots to see in the upcoming days.

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12z GFS wants to know what Day 7 storm you are all talking about

right or wrong the gfs for days hasn't been digging the trough enough to pick up the southern energy. Instead it crushes it as a northern vort goes by to our north. Then the stj system starts to develop well ots. Canadien and euro dig the trough more and so pick up that stj energy and bring a storm up to varrying results. Before we even worry about the whole rain snow thing that major difference must be resolved.
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