Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Pac shortwave exiting the rockies on Sunday looks fairly promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Pac shortwave exiting the rockies on Sunday looks fairly promising. I was thinking the same thing, nice high over the lakes and good confluence in the east, seems to be a good setup to get a storm to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Pac shortwave exiting the rockies on Sunday looks fairly promising. Don't get my hopes up Robert Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Pac shortwave exiting the rockies on Sunday looks fairly promising. Was just seeing that on TT (out to 168h). Looks northern stream-ish? If it can dig a bit and go underneath us, could be onto something good perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Don't get my hopes up Robert Chill. We need another long lead track after the convoluted mess produces tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Vort is much flatter this run. Not much chance to get anything going. Worth keeping an eyeball on but not very exciting. Clipper looked okay at the surface right before it gets to us. Last night was probably overdone but I don't think an inch or two of powder is out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro has a good chunk of the area below 0 12z sunday. Temps pushing -20 in portions of WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 No back down on the cold on the Euro for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 All that shortwave has to do is get under us and give us .25 precip and it would be great with 20:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 All that shortwave has to do is get under us and give us .25 precip and it would be great with 20:1 ratios With those temps, .75 would be a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 With those temps, .75 would be a MECS Get your hopes up. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 850 zero line getting kind of close at 192? Though all that HP to the north and east should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 euro is looking sexy at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Decent thump (6") before we flip...I'd take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 i'm out Joking, I hope. I wasn't saying that about the 850s to be alarmist, just going by the rough maps I see, only every 24h on TT. Others probably can see the "intermediate" times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 81 jackpot. Metro areas go mid-upper 40s after flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I-81 is decimated. noice front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Decent thump (6") before we flip...I'd take it... It's kinda funny how the confluence and cold escape at light speed right as the vort amplifies in a good spot. I like setup regardless. Shortwave looked good early on. Could be an interesting week or so coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 81 jackpot. Metro areas go mid-upper 40s after flip. Really, temps get that high? I only see the 24 hour panels so I pretty much have only seen the "before" and "after" so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 i guess the euro storm is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Actually, from what I'm seeing from StormVista, not a great setup next week. Storm tracks inland. We lose the ridge out west. So, this may be a case where things relax before the next reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Seems like shooting up to mid 40s that fast this thing must be pretty dynamic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So this is the Euro 10-day. Not so hot over Alaska, but there's a trough around Japan. Is this the reload period the ensembles have been showing because I haven't followed it too closely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Actually, from what I'm seeing from StormVista, not a great setup next week. Storm tracks inland. We lose the ridge out west. So, this may be a case where things relax before the next reload. what about today 240 hr euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 So this is the Euro 10-day. Not so hot over Alaska, but there's a trough around Japan. Is this the reload period the ensembles have been showing because I haven't followed it too closely? Looks like it may be? The 12Z GFS is kind of similar, there's a relax in the pattern around that time or just after what the Euro shows. But then it goes crazy pumping up the ridge on the West Coast to AK, with what looks like another dump of very cold air coming in to the central/eastern US after ~360h. That's on the heels of a storm that goes to our west (of course!), according to the GFS. The GEFS mean has a similar look, at least in terms of really building the western ridge late in its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 what about today 240 hr euro?? It tracks the low through central Maryland. Its an inland track. If you look at the 500mb map. You can see that the nice big ridge out west gets beaten down. So, based on this run, I say not a great setup. Still, we have to see whether next week is on where the pattern relaxes and then reloads toward a better setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks like it may be? The 12Z GFS is kind of similar, there's a relax in the pattern around that time or just after what the Euro shows. But then it goes crazy pumping up the ridge on the West Coast to AK, with what looks like another dump of very cold air coming in to the central/eastern US after ~360h. That's on the heels of a storm that goes to our west (of course!), according to the GFS. The GEFS mean has a similar look, at least in terms of really building the western ridge late in its run.The GFS ensembles are showing a breakdown next week, probably goes above average/mild for a time but they bring back the cold the very last week of this month and you would assume into early March maybe. Whether or not that's correct is a different story but it seems like a definite relax of the pattern starting next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 GGEM is most bullish for an all frozen event, but 12z GGEM/GFS/EURO all give us snow to our area in the 15th-16th timeframe, so there is definitely a signal to watch there. A little bit of improvement in the northern stream and we could be looking at something significant for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 CMC and GFS both have some wintry precipitation early next week as you guys have been talking about, and it looks like both have a little clipper swing through a day or 2 after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'll take the over on the long-range cold look. Unless we actually get some sort of decent snowcover, I simply can;t see those temps verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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