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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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So this is the Euro 10-day. Not so hot over Alaska, but there's a trough around Japan. Is this the reload period the ensembles have been showing because I haven't followed it too closely?

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

 

Looks like it may be?  The 12Z GFS is kind of similar, there's a relax in the pattern around that time or just after what the Euro shows.  But then it goes crazy pumping up the ridge on the West Coast to AK, with what looks like another dump of very cold air coming in to the central/eastern US after ~360h.  That's on the heels of a storm that goes to our west (of course!), according to the GFS.  The GEFS mean has a similar look, at least in terms of really building the western ridge late in its run.

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what about today 240 hr euro??

 

It tracks the low through central Maryland. Its an inland track. If you look at the 500mb map. You can see that the nice big ridge out west gets beaten down.  So, based on this run, I say not a great setup.  Still, we have to see whether next week is on where the pattern relaxes and then reloads toward a better setup.  

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Looks like it may be? The 12Z GFS is kind of similar, there's a relax in the pattern around that time or just after what the Euro shows. But then it goes crazy pumping up the ridge on the West Coast to AK, with what looks like another dump of very cold air coming in to the central/eastern US after ~360h. That's on the heels of a storm that goes to our west (of course!), according to the GFS. The GEFS mean has a similar look, at least in terms of really building the western ridge late in its run.

The GFS ensembles are showing a breakdown next week, probably goes above average/mild for a time but they bring back the cold the very last week of this month and you would assume into early March maybe. Whether or not that's correct is a different story but it seems like a definite relax of the pattern starting next week
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GGEM is most bullish for an all frozen event, but 12z GGEM/GFS/EURO all give us snow to our area in the 15th-16th timeframe, so there is definitely a signal to watch there.  A little bit of improvement in the northern stream and we could be looking at something significant for sure.

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