WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 I think what he is saying is to use analogs basically. I think there is merit to that idea and have ask the same question myself in the past. In addition to, not in place of, the math/physics being used, use prior experiences. I have no idea how you would do that, but if your data set is large enough you'd be able to find prior dates with similar conditions. So you incorporate what happened prior into the output of the model. It would take a massive set of data to be effective. I doubt we have a set of data large enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The bad model runs and the near 70 degree weather today almost has me ready for Spring. I need a threat of snow on the horizon to get excited about quick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18z NAM lost the snow from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18z NAM lost the snow from 12z. lol surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The bad model runs and the near 70 degree weather today almost has me ready for Spring. I need a threat of snow on the horizon to get excited about quick! But then more "bad model runs" may only further disappoint you, and increase your longing for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The bad model runs and the near 70 degree weather today almost has me ready for Spring. I need a threat of snow on the horizon to get excited about quick!i'll second that. I have a couple steaks on the grill right now as I stand here looking at the deck around the pool wondering what color I should stain it in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Frustrating winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Frustrating winter Are you saying you see more frustration in the medium/long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Frustrating winter Most are for this area. We are not really a #snowtown. This winter for me is not even in the top 10 of frustrating winters here (lived in NOVA for past 25 years). We were blessed with the January blizzard (top 3 modern snow storm for us) and then two small events. Overall it was a good winter--not great, not terrible, but good. I don't understand expectations of deep cold and continuous snow cover for long periods of time. Both are very rare for this area. ETA: We will see snow in March. How much, no one knows, but chances are better than average we will add to our snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I wouldn't completely rule out the chance of at least another 3-6 inches in the DC/Balt area. The models are having a tough time pinning down precise details 48 hours out much less ten days. Regardless, there is still a strong sign for significant blocking by days 7-10. In an El Niño year we all know March can bring suprises. We'll see but I think this winter has a curveball or two left in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Most are for this area. We are not really a #snowtown. This winter for me is not even in the top 10 of frustrating winters here (lived in NOVA for past 25 years). We were blessed with the January blizzard (top 3 modern snow storm for us) and then two small events. Overall it was a good winter--not great, not terrible, but good. I don't understand expectations of deep cold and continuous snow cover for long periods of time. Both are very rare for this area.[/quote I'm in complete agreement I've been around for some pretty piss poor winters around here in the past 25 years myself. Not sure what people are really expecting. If you need 80 inch a year winters and continuous snow cover move out to the Allegheny mountains of West Virginia. I lived in Pocahontas County for 18 months as domestic peace corps volunteer and My road was snowed in by drifts as late as mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Any reports on the EPS tracks for the cutter? I'm hoping WV can get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 New thread guys http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47924-late-febmarch-medlong-range-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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