Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 You have to wonder when one of these outcomes will be the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Not really, the TT maps have ground temps around 33-35 for the duration of the event for 80% of us. That might be cold enough for it to stick, but a NAM run isn't gonna pull me back in. Me neither...it'll need some support. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 You have to wonder when one of these outcomes will be the one.Definitely by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yeah....the models have this one nailed down. Wonder how many of our "it's over" posters will be posting today? why does it matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 You have to wonder when one of these outcomes will be the one. if you watch long enough , one will eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Awful overnight runs. Both short and long term. All 3 ensembles continue to have a decent look across Canada but all 3 also have mixed signals across the conus. Gefs worst. Eps best. My guess is there is a split camp leading to that. Some that don't go crazy with the blocking and have a super torch. Others that go nuts with the blocking and are cold. It's the only way I see the means looking that way because a -epo -AO pattern is not going to have high heights across the United States in March. It's almost impossible. More likely there is a war going on about weather the high latitude ridging stays and that leads to the weird mixed look long range. It's not an it's over look yet but it's troubling that the cmc and euro ens have gone from a very strong good signal to a more mixed signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 why does it matter Oh wow, great question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Definitely by Wednesday. Sarcasm meter approaching 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Nam looks like the runs of the globals a few days ago. Lol Its doing kinda what you said yesterday. Although its hard to remember exactly which wave you were discussing lol, so many of them. Seems the lead wave pulls the "cold" down and the boundary a bit further south, then it has a strong enough second wave to make the most of the marginally cold air. Looks like last week, but no arctic air in front. The following low will cut and be a wind driven spring deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Nam looks like the runs of the globals a few days ago. Lol takes nam a while to catch on. By the reanalysis it will get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Wpc thinks inland runner?That map is Thursday morning. The nam brings it up early Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Isn't that another storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Awful overnight runs. Both short and long term. All 3 ensembles continue to have a decent look across Canada but all 3 also have mixed signals across the conus. Gefs worst. Eps best. My guess is there is a split camp leading to that. Some that don't go crazy with the blocking and have a super torch. Others that go nuts with the blocking and are cold. It's the only way I see the means looking that way because a -epo -AO pattern is not going to have high heights across the United States in March. It's almost impossible. More likely there is a war going on about weather the high latitude ridging stays and that leads to the weird mixed look long range. It's not an it's over look yet but it's troubling that the cmc and euro ens have gone from a very strong good signal to a more mixed signal. what amazes me is, the data is the same, the equations cant be that different,yet big differences.either some programmar has no clue or ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 My wag is, the faster it comes in, the better the location of the slp and residual cold. If nam is too fast on this run, then in 24 hours, more or less, the nam will adjust and will be showing a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 what amazes me is, the data is the same, the equations cant be that different,yet big differences.either some programmar has no clue or ..... Picking up on different vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Isn't that another storm? Thats the main event storm Wed night into Thurs, and current model consensus is clearly for a track west of the region. For now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Wpc thinks inland runner? close to what bernie rayno thinks hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Picking up on different vorts. not a valid point, math is not variable nor physics, unless you consider calculus with 1,2 variables Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Thats the main event storm Wed night into Thurs, and current model consensus is clearly for a track west of the region. For now lol. some dont agree, but WTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Thats the main event storm Wed night into Thurs, and current model consensus is clearly for a track west of the region. For now lol. Right. NAM looks to be blowing up the first impulse. Wonder what the NAM would do with the main event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Right. NAM looks to be blowing up the first impulse. Wonder what the NAM would do with the main event?Well west by the looks of the 84 hr maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Right. NAM looks to be blowing up the first impulse. Wonder what the NAM would do with the main event? Well, I dont put much stock in the NAM outside of 48 hours or so, and I doubt it is correct on that front-running wave. The one behind it looks like its poised to cut, as the globals are favoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 not a valid point, math is not variable nor physics, unless you consider calculus with 1,2 variablesI meant to use a question mark. But this does have 2 or 3 waves involved in this storm right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 6z parallel GFS has a substantial overrunning event in the 8-9 day range. That would be a fun way to end the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 what amazes me is, the data is the same, the equations cant be that different,yet big differences.either some programmar has no clue or ..... 1. Pro-grammar. Nice. 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory. Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 1. Pro-grammar. Nice. 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory. Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. This ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Gfs scoots it off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 That map is Thursday morning. The nam brings it up early Wednesday morning. Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 1. Pro-grammar. Nice. 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory. Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. People just don't like to believe in chaos. There is still uncertainty but right now I'd bet against the NAM. Not just because its a less skillful model at those time ranges but because its by itself and doesn't agree with the bulk of the GEFS and Euro ensembles or the parent models. Could be right but probably won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 NE OHIO PUMMELED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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