mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 after this showing of models regarding what was supposed to be an east coast snowfall, how the hell can you ever believe what they show, its ridiculous, bring on spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Next week is gone, and it has been for a while. With no cold air around, and the monster ridge in the WA, any amplifying sw is going to cut, and something weaker that could track underneath would still be rain. The period beyond continues to look pretty good on the means. Fwiw, the 6z GFS is suggesting a chance of snow on March 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 after this showing of models regarding what was supposed to be an east coast snowfall, how the hell can you ever believe what they show, its ri This one was nothing. A true model bust is when it backs off a day prior to the event. When tracking snowstorms on models one must understand that it really is just entertainment beyond about 90 hours, even then it is highly subject to change. People track long range because, what else are you going to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Next week is gone, and it has been for a while. With no cold air around, and the monster ridge in the WA, any amplifying sw is going to cut, and something weaker that could track underneath would still be rain. The period beyond continues to look pretty good on the means. Fwiw, the 6z GFS is suggesting a chance of snow on March 1. not worth even considering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 One big event. Other two weren't big events. I have had almost 6" here in Feb, which is probably around average for the month. Yeah it disappeared quick, but even the big storm was only "quality" snow pack for a couple days. It was mostly a slowly deflating slushberg. Not the winter for enjoying snow on the ground very long after it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This one was nothing. A true model bust is when it backs off a day prior to the event. When tracking snowstorms on models one must understand that it really is just entertainment beyond about 90 hours, even then it is highly subject to change. People track long range because, what else are you going to do? youre really kidding about noting to do , right??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 not worth even considering The pattern for next week is a bad one for getting a good event in this area, despite what the models showed for a few runs. There was never really a strong signal for snow on the ensembles. Models often struggle at range before locking on to a solution, but objectively, the odds were always long for the cities and east. The pattern for the end of the month and into early March has looked and continues to look more favorable. Threats that show up on the op runs (and ens) for that period will be more "credible" imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The pattern for next week is a bad one for getting a good event in this area, despite what the models showed for a few runs. There was never really a strong signal for snow on the ensembles. Models often struggle at range before locking on to a solution, but objectively, the odds were always long for the cities and east. The pattern for the end of the month and into early March has looked and continues to look more favorable. Threats that show up on the op runs (and ens) for that period will be more "credible" imo. It has been stated by many here on the board, that when transitioning into a more favorable pattern it simply takes longer for things to fall into place. Granted we are entering early March soon, but it still appears that there will be a favorable period coming beyond the warm up and the storm system later part of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 When we started looking at this it was the Tues/Wed system we were looking at. The second one was insignificant. The euro run from 24 hours ago spit out right about 1" of precip here from Tues 12z to Wed 12z. The focus of the gfs was on that system as well. Now....there is no first system in our area. It's all about the second one. Euro and gfs. That's a pretty abrupt change. The reasons for such an abrupt change would be a good topic to discuss but I'm not opening that door. Suffice it to say I don't think it's simply because it got closer in time. The change in 6hrs on the gfs from 12z to 18z was big with the second system and it hasn't let go of it yet. 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The pattern for next week is a bad one for getting a good event in this area, despite what the models showed for a few runs. There was never really a strong signal for snow on the ensembles. Models often struggle at range before locking on to a solution, but objectively, the odds were always long for the cities and east. The pattern for the end of the month and into early March has looked and continues to look more favorable. Threats that show up on the op runs (and ens) for that period will be more "credible" imo. youre probably right, as I dont go over the available guidance like you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Like i said 6 pages ago. Congrats Chicago. Once the models lost the nice hp to the north this one was over. For now i am going to enjoy the 60 degree weather. I still think we get another storm or 2 in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Some of my colleagues and I had a talk last fall about what a Middle Atlantic winter might look like in a strong to record El Niño. After crunching numbers there were only a handful of examples. Two winters we were drilled with snow, several had nothing at all and a couple had a small amount well below normal. One of our mets said it could be a year where we get almost nothing for much of the winter but get hammered by one big storm. He was spot on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Funny....looking at the 6z NAM and the latest srefs there would be a possibility of light snow in here Tuesday morning. My head hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 we've had 3 events Well, some did. By a million miles, this is the worst AN snow winter in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Some of my colleagues and I had a talk last fall about what a Middle Atlantic winter might look like in a strong to record El Niño. After crunching numbers there were only a handful of examples. Two winters we were drilled with snow, several had nothing at all and a couple had a small amount well below normal. One of our mets said it could be a year where we get almost nothing for much of the winter but get hammered by one big storm. He was spot on! Honestly, if we had that every winter I'd be fine with it. I live for the HECSs...Multiple 3-6" type events are boring to me. Maybe because in the last 5 years I've experienced 3-4 2 ft snowstorms either at home or traveling. It would be a shame if we get shutout in March, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 What the heck is the NAM doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 What the heck is the NAM doing?Whipping up another cold rain by bringing the precip in at the worst time possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 What the heck is the NAM doing?White rain unless your out west or north but it's an interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yeah....the models have this one nailed down. Wonder how many of our "it's over" posters will be posting today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Some of my colleagues and I had a talk last fall about what a Middle Atlantic winter might look like in a strong to record El Niño. After crunching numbers there were only a handful of examples. Two winters we were drilled with snow, several had nothing at all and a couple had a small amount well below normal. One of our mets said it could be a year where we get almost nothing for much of the winter but get hammered by one big storm. He was spot on! In 10 years I don't think many people will look back at 2015/16 and call it a great winter just because we had one great storm. Up to this point it's been pretty weak, save the HECS and a couple Arctic days. 2013/14 was a great winter and last year was pretty good overall. This year I'd call it about average, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Nam looks like the runs of the globals a few days ago. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yeah....the models have this one nailed down. Wonder how many of our "it's over" posters will be posting today? NAM only seems to look good for posters on the outskirts of the area who still weren't out anyways. It brings some hope for the cities but this is the NAM towards the end of its run and the globals seem to be essentially in agreement...EDIT: I dunno actually, precip looks heavy enough to stick for awhile with the temps above freezing, but this is still such an outlier right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yeah....the models have this one nailed down. Wonder how many of our "it's over" posters will be posting today? I've been casually following the models on this one but boy have they been all over the place. It certainly makes this hobby interesting. I don't think anyone can discount any solution at this point, although rain seems likely in the cities. When we get 6" of snow of Wednesday, feel free to troll the **** out of my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 NAMed. What else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 NE MARYLAND PUMMELED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 NAM only seems to look good for posters on the outskirts of the area who still weren't out anyways. It brings some hope for the cities but this is the NAM towards the end of its run and the globals seem to be essentially in agreement... EDIT: I dunno actually, precip looks heavy enough to stick for awhile with the temps above freezing, but this is still such an outlier right now. Does outskirts of the area mean everyone outside of a 20 mile radius of Balt/DC ? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 NE MARYLAND PUMMELED! Whew! That's a relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 NAMed. What else is new. Chicago pummeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Does outskirts of the area mean everyone outside of a 20 mile radius of Balt/DC ? LOL Not really, the TT maps have ground temps around 33-35 for the duration of the event for 80% of us. That might be cold enough for it to stick, but a NAM run isn't gonna pull me back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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