Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 We have about run the gamut of solutions. It's time for the 0z run the show a miller a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol way to walk that back. A 5" storm at DCA is a MECS everywhere else. Explain, in detail, how I walked back something that was never defined in the first place.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'm kidding chill. You said legit storm which most people view as 2-4". But then you answered warning, which is almost impossible at DCA. If your talking IAD then it would be a fun bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'm kidding chill. You said legit storm which most people view as 2-4". But then you answered warning, which is almost impossible at DCA. If your talking IAD then it would be a fun bet. Winter storm warnings do happen when DCA doesn't actually measure 5"....like the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 day 10 looks great... till we get to day 5 notice how the euro is always stubborn on rain solutions but when it shows snow for 3-4 runs...it has no problem flipping to a different track and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 day 10 looks great... till we get to day 5 notice how the euro is always stubborn on rain solutions but when it shows snow for 3-4 runs...it has no problem flipping to a different track and rain Could be worse. Could have New England's luck this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Went from too much wave one not enough wave 2 to total opposite in one run. lol this shows how hard it will be with that ridging for us though. any phased solution unless it happens as the storm get to the coast timed perfect will be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Slight run to run changes continue. Just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs brought back the day 10 thing. Lol. Models are going to be a mess with all the moving parts it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Seems like I remember the gfs at 18z doing something similar with an 18z run on the last storm.....way west, took its ensembles with it, and then was back to its prior runs on the next cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Gfs brought back the day 10 thing. Lol. Models are going to be a mess with all the moving parts it seems. Meh, it looks pretty marginal going by the 850s and 2m temperatures. Not that it much matters to interpret such details 10 days out. But I'm being kind of pessimistic I suppose given the trends today, even in the somewhat longer range after next week's mess. 18Z GEFS mean continues to insist on breaking things down pretty rapidly in the longer range, it looks ugly by the end, quite honestly. Through ~300h it's not a bad look, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 At least it won't be 33 and rain...Don't be so sure. That's our speciality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Rain is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Meh, it looks pretty marginal going by the 850s and 2m temperatures. Not that it much matters to interpret such details 10 days out. But I'm being kind of pessimistic I suppose given the trends today, even in the somewhat longer range after next week's mess. 18Z GEFS mean continues to insist on breaking things down pretty rapidly in the longer range, it looks ugly by the end, quite honestly. Through ~300h it's not a bad look, though. Who knows what the hell will happen early-mid next week at this point. 12z EPS h5 pattern just beyond that period and through the end of the run looks pretty darn nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 A slight majority of the gefs don't kill off the first "storm" the way the op did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 So after looking at the H5 vorticity map, would the Wed/Thurs. storm not cut if the vortex in Canada above Mich. were to drop down in a southerly direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Rain is better than nothing. I would say that depends on your location. I really could do without any kind of moisture for a great while as it has been wet here for a very long time. I have watered my 3500 sq/ft garden maybe a handful of times in the past 5 years. I am very tired of rain!!! Unless it is snow or a very strong thunderstorm/tropical cyclone, then I would prefer blue skies and 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Might be a stretch, but with warmer temps ahead of this clipper and a favorable low track, does anyone else see a very small chance for strong storms on Sunday afternoon? NAM has "some" CAPE and that might be good enough? With the recent trends for next weeks storm, I'm trying to get excited about something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 So much for the nice cluster of ensemble lows off the coast from about 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Trying to extrapolate the NAM and I see 1) no h5 feature that can produce a strong low or a cutter in the Tues/Wed time frame 2) a pretty strong CAD look with a decent high in a good place 3) not sure how long it would take to get meaningful precip in here. Of course all of it could be wrong which would make those observations meaningless. GFS up soon. Curious to see what it spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Trying to extrapolate the NAM and I see 1) no h5 feature that can produce a strong low or a cutter in the Tues/Wed time frame 2) a pretty strong CAD look with a decent high in a good place 3) not sure how long it would take to get meaningful precip in here. Of course all of it could be wrong which would make those observations meaningless. GFS up soon. Curious to see what it spits out. looking at the last few frames of the h5 it's coming up. The flow is backing and that storm over Louisiana is going to lift north. It may not cut but I'm not as sure it cant. But at the same time the gfs has that back over southeast Colorado so it's certainly in a lot better starting point. Crazy difference for only 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The NAM (DGEX) runs the storm right up the Apps. CAD stands no chance against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The NAM (DGEX) runs the storm right up the Apps. CAD stands no chance against that. yea. It doesn't matter much how cold it is at 84 hours. The trough is starting to dig too far west and the ridging is popping up the coast. The nam certainly looks better then the gfs but I still felt it had the look of about to cut too far west at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Amazing model consensus. 84 hours the gfs has the low the nam has near New Orleans over Amarillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Amazing model consensus. 84 hours the gfs has the low the nam has near New Orleans over Amarillo. I wonder if that LP in Texas will catch up to the LP in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I can tell by 90 it's cutting. Trough is digging way too far west and phasing again. With that ridge to our east nothing to stop it. It's gonna go way west again this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Congrats Littlerock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I just want to point out, if the storm plays out like it looks like it might, the UKIE has kicked ass. I swear, the Ukie has def moved into my #2 model of choice..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Anybody get the feeling the gfs is searching? The low it had in central Indiana Wed eve is now showing in east Tenn. at the same time. Where will it be by 12z? Hatteras? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Definitely further south on this run thru 114. May not end well but it has improved a lot from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Anybody get the feeling the gfs is searching? The low it had in central Indiana Wed eve is now showing in east Tenn. at the same time. Where will it be by 12z? Hatteras? Maybe it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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