WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Of course the EPS moved a little east from last night with more colder and snowier solutions. Probably toast in the cities either way but winwxluvr approves of this run. Hey............everybody see this post? Randy? This is still over 4 days away. We can do this. Or we can't. We just can't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 And we're back. See you guys at happy hour! You know you want to see what happens with that second wave. It'll be better with alcohol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Hey............everybody see this post? Randy? This is still over 4 days away. We can do this. Or we can't. We just can't know yet. You probably have a chance. Ensembles still suck pretty bad for cities and burbs. But improved out your way quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 CMC and GFS ensembles look like they are on different planets right now. GEPS definitely improved since last night, but the GEFS can't be ignored. And even a lot of the coastal tracks are rain for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 still seeing alot of good snow on hits on euro even for western suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Of course the EPS moved a little east from last night with more colder and snowier solutions. Probably toast in the cities either way but winwxluvr approves of this run. they have no consensus. Day 6 looks like someone took a shotgun and sprayed the northeast with lows. They did lose that crazy cut to Ohio look. There is way more snow showing up close by as you pointed out but it's split between the two waves. Basically the eps says we don't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Hey............everybody see this post? Randy? This is still over 4 days away. We can do this. Or we can't. We just can't know yet. Dude, for you, you should never give up, even in the summer with a low tracking over Dulles you'd still be in the game. I'm talking for us. For you, no way you walk away now. For me and the cities, we out. I'm folding. There is zero chance we're back in. If we get a legit snowstorm, I'll make ji an admin for an hour. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 still seeing alot of good snow on hits on euro even for western suburbs Just when I'm ready to bail, you pull me back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Dude, for you, you should never give up, even in the summer with a low tracking over Dulles you'd still be in the game. I'm talking for us. For you, no way you walk away now. For me and the cities, we out. I'm folding. There is zero chance we're back in. If we get a legit snowstorm, I'll make ji an admin for an hour. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Holy crap. That would be a sight to see with Ji as admin. So define snowstorm. 1-3? 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 congrats...JB loves the GGEM ensembles as much as his own kids. I rank them 3rd but when they are in line with the eps I use them as support to toss the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Just when I'm ready to bail, you pull me back in. you probably want to still bail. Those ensemble snow members always look better than what actually show up in your grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 At least it won't be 33 and rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Dude, for you, you should never give up, even in the summer with a low tracking over Dulles you'd still be in the game. I'm talking for us. For you, no way you walk away now. For me and the cities, we out. I'm folding. There is zero chance we're back in. If we get a legit snowstorm, I'll make ji an admin for an hour. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Definitely interested in what criteria would be applied to a "legit snowstorm" so I can root for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Eps still looks good with nice blocking over the top and troughing in the northeast through day 15. We lose the pesky atl ridge too. Signs the stj gets active late too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Definitely interested in what criteria would be applied to a "legit snowstorm" so I can root for that to verify. An inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Holy crap. That would be a sight to see with Ji as admin. So define snowstorm. 1-3? 2-4? Warning criteria Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I rank them 3rd but when they are in line with the eps I use them as support to toss the gfs. I saw what you were referring to in terms of the GEFS overall pattern in the longer range, and I've noticed the same (disturbing) trend for it to sort of have the Pacific flow push the West Coast ridge east and also flatten it. The effect is to undercut the low heights/vortex in southeast Canada, with more ridging evident here (and in the east in general). The Canadian ensembles keep the ridge in the western U.S., a better +PNA signal, and it's stronger than the GEFS. Which results in keeping a trough here. Not sure if the GEFS is on to something, or what, in that time frame. But it is a change from before. ETA: I see you've mentioned the EPS shows the more favorable look through d15, so that's good to see at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I saw what you were referring to in terms of the GEFS overall pattern in the longer range, and I've noticed the same (disturbing) trend for it to sort of have the Pacific flow push the West Coast ridge east and also flatten it. The effect is to undercut the low heights/vortex in southeast Canada, with more ridging evident here (and in the east in general). The Canadian ensembles keep the ridge in the western U.S., a better +PNA signal, and it's stronger than the GEFS. Which results in keeping a trough here. Not sure if the GEFS is on to something, or what, in that time frame. But it is a change from before. ETA: I see you've mentioned the EPS shows the more favorable look through d15, so that's good to see at least! gefs actually has been doing that for days now. It's been pretty bad compared to the eps long range this year so I've not been giving it much weight with the other guidance in tandem. Plus it's kinda weird what it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Warning criteria Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Lol way to walk that back. A 5" storm at DCA is a MECS everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Warning criteria in MD is child's play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Para gfs is rain wave 1 and a miss southeast wave 2 but it's close. I'll take where it's at right now. Need the frontrunner weaker and the second stronger and we have something to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol way to walk that back. A 5" storm at DCA is a MECS everywhere else. That's about right. 3 to 1 ratio for me. DCA measures 5" I'll get 15 out here.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Wow. Para euro takes the second low through IN-OH. IL-MI weenies uncorking the Korbel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's all becoming clear now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's all becoming clear now. Clear as mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 18z digging even further west, going to be warmer rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 18z digging even further west, going to be warmer rain. It's no storm at all. Now it's all on the second one...the one heading to Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol way to walk that back. A 5" storm at DCA is a MECS everywhere else. Explain, in detail, how I walked back something that was never defined in the first place.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's no storm at all. Now it's all on the second one...the one heading to Detroit. Going to 1 up the UKMET on this run. Edit:: There's your triple phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Slight run to run changes continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.