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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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well contrary to popular opinion there isnt always a ten day pattern that looks good so at least we have something to watch over the coming week.

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6z GFS has a different look. Storm is back but this time the cold folds. Convoluted set up but yes we are back to tracking for that timeframe. It looks awesome at first and then cuts to apps. Imagine front end dump then CAD mixed slop. No idea

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6z GFS has a different look. Storm is back but this time the cold folds. Convoluted set up but yes we are back to tracking for that timeframe. It looks awesome at first and then cuts to apps. Imagine front end dump then CAD mixed slop. No idea

It's honestly not THAT far away from something very big. I'm moderately encouraged, especially given the fact that the EPS continues to show potential.

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What does the rest of Feb look like?

Cold on the means, with a period of well below average temps late next week and weekend, then some moderation towards the 20th. Who knows beyond that. Still a signal for a storm in the 15-18th time frame, although the potential for something big from a few runs ago seems less likely, for now.

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Cold on the means, with a period of well below average temps late next week and weekend, then some moderation towards the 20th. Who knows beyond that. Still a signal for a storm in the 15-18th time frame, although the potential for something big from a few runs ago seems less likely, for now.

Hoping the moderation is serviceable for the entire EC. 

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Hoping the moderation is serviceable for the entire EC. 

Looks like just normal cold, high temps in the 40s. Certainly doesn't look torchy. Of course its way out there so things could change quite a bit. I would not be surprised if future runs show more blocking, and keep us generally colder.

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GEFS has increased the long range blocking signal 4 runs in a row now. Euro ens not nearly as bullish with the epo ridge and -ao but seems to be moving in that direction each run. 

 

My wag is any "relaxation" will be brief and the chances for a blocky and cold finish to the month are above average. If the GEFS is right then another arctic outbreak is in the cards. 

 

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The storm late next weekend / early next week is on the means but how it evolves is pretty muddy. I'm not going to think too much on that one until some sort of clarity appears. The antecedent air mass could be quite cold so even a bad track could deliver sig snow/ice if something runs west. I don't think that the deeply suppressed track that the euro/para euro are showing is the most likely. 

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GEFS has increased the long range blocking signal 4 runs in a row now. Euro ens not nearly as bullish with the epo ridge and -ao but seems to be moving in that direction each run. 

 

My wag is any "relaxation" will be brief and the chances for a blocky and cold finish to the month are above average. If the GEFS is right then another arctic outbreak is in the cards. 

 

attachicon.gifgefsblock.JPG

 

 

The storm late next weekend / early next week is on the means but how it evolves is pretty muddy. I'm not going to think too much on that one until some sort of clarity appears. The antecedent air mass could be quite cold so even a bad track could deliver sig snow/ice if something runs west. I don't think that the deeply suppressed track that the euro/para euro are showing is the most likely. 

Yeah its generally a pretty good look. I am just not nuts about the persistence of that huge + height anomaly over/east of the Canadian Maritimes. Too bad we cant get that to shift NW some.

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Looks like a thump omega bomb between 168 and 192, It might be mostly snow in far western areas.

It cuts west and looks like another low develops in SE VA. Its maybe some slop then rain for the cities and east. Plenty of snow in the mountains. Lots of time for adjustments, but it sure looks like timing is going to be critical with the cold high on the move. 

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It cuts west and looks like another low develops in SE VA. Its maybe some slop then rain for the cities and east. Plenty of snow in the mountains. Lots of time for adjustments, but it sure looks like timing is going to be critical with the cold high on the move. 

The good sign about this run is the storm is developing pretty quick on the heels of the arctic shot. The airmass is serious cold and even if the track isn't the best it won't be real easy getting rid of the cold as we saw last Feb. 

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The good sign about this run is the storm is developing pretty quick on the heels of the arctic shot. The airmass is serious cold and even if the track isn't the best it won't be real easy getting rid of the cold as we saw last Feb. 

Yeah its just nice to see a storm showing up at this point. Not worth analyzing much beyond that. It will be moving into a cold air mass and that typically works pretty well.

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Yeah its just nice to see a storm showing up at this point. Not worth analyzing much beyond that. It will be moving into a cold air mass and that typically works pretty well.

Exactly...the signal is there and with brutal cold air in place it could be a big thump of snow at least.

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The Euro, GFS, and GGEM all have a storm.  Even though the details differ, that's a pretty good signal at this range.

 

I like the potential timing too.  After we get 1.9" at BWI on Tuesday, I'm hoping for a HECS to get started on the night of the 15th.  I'd like to see Bob and Mitch try to get BWI to take a measurement at exactly midnight.

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