BristowWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 well contrary to popular opinion there isnt always a ten day pattern that looks good so at least we have something to watch over the coming week. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 6z GFS has a different look. Storm is back but this time the cold folds. Convoluted set up but yes we are back to tracking for that timeframe. It looks awesome at first and then cuts to apps. Imagine front end dump then CAD mixed slop. No idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 6z GFS has a different look. Storm is back but this time the cold folds. Convoluted set up but yes we are back to tracking for that timeframe. It looks awesome at first and then cuts to apps. Imagine front end dump then CAD mixed slop. No idea It's honestly not THAT far away from something very big. I'm moderately encouraged, especially given the fact that the EPS continues to show potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What does the rest of Feb look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What does the rest of Feb look like? Cold on the means, with a period of well below average temps late next week and weekend, then some moderation towards the 20th. Who knows beyond that. Still a signal for a storm in the 15-18th time frame, although the potential for something big from a few runs ago seems less likely, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Cold on the means, with a period of well below average temps late next week and weekend, then some moderation towards the 20th. Who knows beyond that. Still a signal for a storm in the 15-18th time frame, although the potential for something big from a few runs ago seems less likely, for now. Hoping the moderation is serviceable for the entire EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hoping the moderation is serviceable for the entire EC. Looks like just normal cold, high temps in the 40s. Certainly doesn't look torchy. Of course its way out there so things could change quite a bit. I would not be surprised if future runs show more blocking, and keep us generally colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GEFS has increased the long range blocking signal 4 runs in a row now. Euro ens not nearly as bullish with the epo ridge and -ao but seems to be moving in that direction each run. My wag is any "relaxation" will be brief and the chances for a blocky and cold finish to the month are above average. If the GEFS is right then another arctic outbreak is in the cards. The storm late next weekend / early next week is on the means but how it evolves is pretty muddy. I'm not going to think too much on that one until some sort of clarity appears. The antecedent air mass could be quite cold so even a bad track could deliver sig snow/ice if something runs west. I don't think that the deeply suppressed track that the euro/para euro are showing is the most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GEFS has increased the long range blocking signal 4 runs in a row now. Euro ens not nearly as bullish with the epo ridge and -ao but seems to be moving in that direction each run. My wag is any "relaxation" will be brief and the chances for a blocky and cold finish to the month are above average. If the GEFS is right then another arctic outbreak is in the cards. gefsblock.JPG The storm late next weekend / early next week is on the means but how it evolves is pretty muddy. I'm not going to think too much on that one until some sort of clarity appears. The antecedent air mass could be quite cold so even a bad track could deliver sig snow/ice if something runs west. I don't think that the deeply suppressed track that the euro/para euro are showing is the most likely. Yeah its generally a pretty good look. I am just not nuts about the persistence of that huge + height anomaly over/east of the Canadian Maritimes. Too bad we cant get that to shift NW some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Pretty nice look from today's GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 euro looks better than last night. brining precip in with a big dome of HP in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Pretty nice look from today's GEFS. gfs mslp.png That big 1041 H. Wondering how that would effect anything on the EC. seems like a bad position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 euro looks better than last night. brining precip in with a big dome of HP in place Was wondering about that. Thanks. That is the potential event where I am putting my chips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 euro looks really wet but there appears to be some kind of changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
66degreesnorth Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 euro looks better than last night. brining precip in with a big dome of HP in placeWhat days?Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Euro looks great if you are in the mountains or up in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What days? Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Feb 15-17 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 euro looks really wet but there appears to be some kind of changeover Looks like a thump omega bomb between 168 and 192, It might be mostly snow in far western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like a thump omega bomb between 168 and 192, It might be mostly snow in far western areas. looks like an I=81/western Maryland/Central PA special. There is some snow for us but it changes. Weird run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 looks like an I=81/western Maryland/Central PA special. There is some snow for us but it changes. Weird run It is. Big thump west of 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looks like a thump omega bomb between 168 and 192, It might be mostly snow in far western areas. It cuts west and looks like another low develops in SE VA. Its maybe some slop then rain for the cities and east. Plenty of snow in the mountains. Lots of time for adjustments, but it sure looks like timing is going to be critical with the cold high on the move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Today's GEFS shows the scenario we want/need. Can also see it how it could cut like the Euro op, with big h5 height anomalies well to our NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It cuts west and looks like another low develops in SE VA. Its maybe some slop then rain for the cities and east. Plenty of snow in the mountains. Lots of time for adjustments, but it sure looks like timing is going to be critical with the cold high on the move. The good sign about this run is the storm is developing pretty quick on the heels of the arctic shot. The airmass is serious cold and even if the track isn't the best it won't be real easy getting rid of the cold as we saw last Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The good sign about this run is the storm is developing pretty quick on the heels of the arctic shot. The airmass is serious cold and even if the track isn't the best it won't be real easy getting rid of the cold as we saw last Feb. Yeah its just nice to see a storm showing up at this point. Not worth analyzing much beyond that. It will be moving into a cold air mass and that typically works pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah its just nice to see a storm showing up at this point. Not worth analyzing much beyond that. It will be moving into a cold air mass and that typically works pretty well. Exactly...the signal is there and with brutal cold air in place it could be a big thump of snow at least. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The Euro, GFS, and GGEM all have a storm. Even though the details differ, that's a pretty good signal at this range. I like the potential timing too. After we get 1.9" at BWI on Tuesday, I'm hoping for a HECS to get started on the night of the 15th. I'd like to see Bob and Mitch try to get BWI to take a measurement at exactly midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Historically we get big snow mid to late Feb. The advertised pattern is a pdg one to get a decent storm in our climo wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Historically we get big snow mid to late Feb. The advertised pattern is a pdg one to get a decent storm in our climo wheelhouse.Pdg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Pdg? Pretty dog gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lots of spread in the low locations for the mid month threat on the EPS. Quite a few overhead and to our NW though. In general the mean supports the look of today's op run. Snowy well west in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 EPS from 12z still at 3-3.5" for the event. OT: they favor the operational with the day 8-9 storm and bullseye i81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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