Ian Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Chins up, next week never really looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 and here comes all the debs The euro is a very powerful mood controller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 and here comes all the debs It's awful!!! What a terrible, terrible run. Once the Euro is locked in that's it................unless it locks in on something different in 12 hours...........and then that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 The euro is a very powerful mood controller. For those addicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Chins up, next week never really looked good. I remained out until Wednesday and like a dummy decided there was a real chance we could thread the perfect needle. I guess I have to remain interested. Seems the trend is a two distinct wave structure instead of everything working together as a giant blob. Maybe the lead wave carves a better track for #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Man, I feel the mood on this board. We all we're expecting a decent storm track for next week, but it went into the crapper. Its becoming clear the current pattern we're in is not great for winter weather. But, what we have to see is how things will be shaping beyond next week. I think our chances get better the following week. Yes, its March, but you can still get some big ones. So, all we can do is watch how models trend things with the upper air. Anyway, in the meantime, good time to step away, get some fresh air and then recharge, because winter isn't done yet. Still think the pattern becomes favorable the 2/29 through 3/4.. We know the AO will head into the negative territory.. MJO heading into Phase 7 and even 8 as we head into March. The EPO dipping into the negative phase. The one guy is the NAO. Been like pulling teeth to get this into negative. Western Based NAO may finally head toward negative. So, there are some indicators that show we have some chances. In the meantime, this weekend, I'll be watching some Breaking Bad.. Talk about how I missed watching this show. Just great stuff.. I think all the computer models will probably start at hour 120 with the next cycle since this is one is already a certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Whet the heck. Are we supposed to feel good about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Day 10 EURO still doesn't offer much excitement to me....Obv we'll look @ ensembles, but everything seems stuck up in Canada. See no hope for a NAO we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's awful!!! What a terrible, terrible run. Once the Euro is locked in that's it................unless it locks in on something different in 12 hours...........and then that's it. Well that's really the thing, isn't it. The whole op run of the GFS looked hideous to me today however the LR yesterday was touting a great pattern between days 10-15. Now I'm not so sure. So model reliabilty (for snowstorms this year) is a four-day window at best. Only exception was our blizzard. We'll see if the EURO will end up having at least the coastal track right with this one. Hopefully it will be proven to be right. Gotta have faith in one of the models being close to right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The euro is a very powerful mood controller. so much for how good the ensembles looked 2 days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 All true - just not sure pants need to be checked over a 10-day prog. Because. Also, Feb. 15 was when the GFS was causing pants checking. So four days ago to these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Folks Show all the solutions and one verifies and then showcase that one come funding time In the meantime gather some support by having a few rave about what wonderful and complex mathematical formulas go into this product which can actually predict very little but can show a lot of possibilities. There would be little less benefit by just waiting until a rain systems shows up down south and then follow it for the next 36 hours to see what happens as it moves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Whet the heck. Are we supposed to feel good about it. Next winter is one day closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'm thinking the March 25 - April 10 window looks good. Get us a pattern reset, get some good blocking, a good stj, some cold high pressure, strat warming..........we're looking at a good opportunity. Folks, sometimes it's just bad luck or good luck. Where is a little wave of precip like we are going to see this weekend when temps are OK? Seemingly, nowhere to be found. It may snow some for us over the next month, but it is a coin flip as to whether we are going to see it coming very far in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The ingredients aren't in the oven yet. It's day 4-5 and just yesterday we had solutions with snow in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I figure waiting till next Thursday to make a call is the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Hopefully it was a hiccup but the op euro just caved to an idea the gefs has been showing for a while. I'm very interested to see if the eps holds. Honestly my optimism in the coming pattern has been based on the ggem and euro ensembles. I've been disregarding the gefs since they were out of line with both ggem and eps and doing something they failed at before. However if the other guidance starts moving that way things could unravel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think all the computer models will probably start at hour 120 with the next cycle since this is one is already a certainty. I think its becoming clear that the upper air pattern is not great for next week. I think the following week is better. The bigger problem has been the NAO inability to get into the negative territory. Some of the other season forecasters have pointed out that the Atlantic is more hostile for winter storms and thats looking more like case next week. You have to go back to January when all the indices lined up for that extreme event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 I figure waiting till next Thursday to make a call is the best bet. That's a good call. I think you'll nail that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think its becoming clear that the upper air pattern is not great for next week. I think the following week is better. The bigger problem has been the NAO inability to get into the negative territory. Some of the other season forecasters have pointed out that the Atlantic is more hostile for winter storms and thats looking more like case next week. You have to go back to January when all the indices lined up for that extreme event. That's an issue if you are looking for an extreme event. I'm not. That little wave of precip rolling through this weekend is a prime example. Something minor, coulda been a 3-6" snow if it rolls through on any one of about 30 different days this winter, but it comes with temps in the 50's. Just bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's awful!!! What a terrible, terrible run. Once the Euro is locked in that's it................unless it locks in on something different in 12 hours...........and then that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 this february has been anything but rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Quick look at ggem ens. For the storm def a coastal track. For both waves. A good pass at 150 with the last in the train of lowes with decent qpf and cold. After that ggem ens still build good epo AO blocking through the run. Looks nothing like gefs. Will see what eps says soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's an issue if you are looking for an extreme event. I'm not. That little wave of precip rolling through this weekend is a prime example. Something minor, coulda been a 3-6" snow if it rolls through on any one of about 30 different days this winter, but it comes with temps in the 50's. Just bad luck. Well, for the big ones yes. For the minor you pointed out, well it certainly has been disappointing that next week is looking like not much. Just have to see how next week goes and how things trend. But definitely has been ugly with how models have been trending. Anyway, glad its the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Great song... I know when to fold em... threw away my hand last night when the EPS caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Quick look at ggem ens. For the storm def a coastal track. For both waves. A good pass at 150 with the last in the train of lowes with decent qpf and cold. After that ggem ens still build good epo AO blocking through the run. Looks nothing like gefs. Will see what eps says soon. That's good. Maybe still too early to punt. Heck we got time and nothing else to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Maybe WinterWxLuvr will still find an Ace that he can keep! Gonna enjoy my weekend and not look at every model output from now until Monday! 60s! NICE! BTW - The weenie in me knows I will still check every single model that comes out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Of course the EPS moved a little east from last night with more colder and snowier solutions. Probably toast in the cities either way but winwxluvr approves of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Maybe WinterWxLuvr will still find an Ace that he can keep! Gonna enjoy my weekend and not look at every model output from now until Monday! 60s! NICE! BTW - The weenie in me knows I will still check every single model that comes out! Perhaps y'all missed the line "know when to hold 'em" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Quick look at ggem ens. For the storm def a coastal track. For both waves. A good pass at 150 with the last in the train of lowes with decent qpf and cold. After that ggem ens still build good epo AO blocking through the run. Looks nothing like gefs. Will see what eps says soon. congrats...JB loves the GGEM ensembles as much as his own kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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