ers-wxman1 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Man. Talk about run to run inconsistencies. The GFS is all over the place with this event. Cut to Detroit. Run up the coast. Who the hell knows at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Storm one is really going to have issues with marginal cold and a trough axis way west and atlantic ridging up the wazoo. A phased solution between the two ends with an ohio valley bomb. The gfs is actually a step towards what we want, a weaker wave one and stronger wave 2. Problem is that northern branch system over the lakes. That was hanging back or phasing in when we had better runs in the past. If that is weaker or phases into the southern system or if its just not there at all since the models are bouncing all over the place with those vorts, this is closer to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GEFS are showing a cutter Just not our deal! Euro next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 looking at the h5 things don't look bad around hour 90 but then the PV retrogrades and a piece phases in. That really allows the ridging to go nuts to the east again. That is similar to what screwed up the Jan 15 period. And at the time we were all in despair then of course we know what that evolved into. The GFS and its ensembles though are still trying to break everything down, they develop the blocking but then immediately pull the north pacific trough east and flood warm air across the CONUS. It tried doing that back in mid January before the blizzard and was wrong. I guess it could be right this time but until I see the GGEM or Euro ensembles head that way I will throw that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GEFS are showing a cutter Just not our deal! Euro next! judging by the time period, only 132 hours, they are obviously keying on the first wave and phasing everything into it. If that happens it will cut very far west, probably to Ohio. Not sure I buy that yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nope!That WAR is a beast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The euro has been the only solution thus far that has held serve and with consistent ensemble support. I would go with what is consistent run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The euro has been the only solution thus far that has held serve and with consistent ensemble support. I would go with what is consistent run to run. How about the ukie? That's been pretty consistent if you ask me and euro ensembles were west of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Day 5 slp euro http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu&cu&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Day 6 slp http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=h144&cu&cu&cu&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 How about the ukie? That's been pretty consistent if you ask me and euro ensembles were west of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro is pretty hideous with the front wave. Rain for all basically. Interior mountains are ok for time but it's west/warm/wet mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 rain parade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 maybe it is time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 So similar to last Sunday/Monday.............except no cold air to start. Still too far away though. Definitive statements are going to be risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 maybe it is time... Hardly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So similar to last Sunday/Monday.............except no cold air to start. Still too far away though. Definitive statements are going to be risky. new school forecasting.. waffle until 6 hours out. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So similar to last Sunday/Monday.............except no cold air to start. Still too far away though. Definitive statements are going to be risky. I think it is time. You know. See pic above. Let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 maybe it is time... LOLZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So similar to last Sunday/Monday.............except no cold air to start. Still too far away though. Definitive statements are going to be risky. Son, come into my office. Sit down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The bright side is the euro didn't tease us with an outside chance so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The bright side is the euro didn't tease us with an outside chance so there's that. Even with the right track... I'm officially out. Anything after this debacle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Boys, boys, boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Anything after this debacle?Spring.Seriously tho...I bet all these LR progs of favorable teleconnections fall by the wayside. El Nino is a real wet blanket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro lost the good HP. Writing is on the wall with this one. No beatdown for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Man, I feel the mood on this board. We all we're expecting a decent storm track for next week, but it went into the crapper. Its becoming clear the current pattern we're in is not great for winter weather. But, what we have to see is how things will be shaping beyond next week. I think our chances get better the following week. Yes, its March, but you can still get some big ones. So, all we can do is watch how models trend things with the upper air. Anyway, in the meantime, good time to step away, get some fresh air and then recharge, because winter isn't done yet. Still think the pattern becomes favorable the 2/29 through 3/4.. We know the AO will head into the negative territory.. MJO heading into Phase 7 and even 8 as we head into March. The EPO dipping into the negative phase. The one guy is the NAO. Been like pulling teeth to get this into negative. Western Based NAO may finally head toward negative. So, there are some indicators that show we have some chances. In the meantime, this weekend, I'll be watching some Breaking Bad.. Talk about how I missed watching this show. Just great stuff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Horrible run. The cold that was modeled a couple days ago for the middle of next week onward has completely disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 and here comes all the debs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Man, I feel the mood on this board. We all we're expecting a decent storm track for next week, but it went into the crapper. Its becoming clear the current pattern we're in is not great for winter weather. But, what we have to see is how things will be shaping beyond next week. I think our chances get better the following week. Yes, its March, but you can still get some big ones. So, all we can do is watch how models trend things with the upper air. Anyway, in the meantime, good time to step away, get some fresh air and then recharge, because winter isn't done yet. Still think the pattern becomes favorable the 2/29 through 3/4.. We know the AO will head into the negative territory.. MJO heading into Phase 7 and even 8 as we head into March. The EPO dipping into the negative phase. The one guy is the NAO. Been like pulling teeth to get this into negative. Western Based NAO may finally head toward negative. So, there are some indicators that show we have some chances. In the meantime, this weekend, I'll be watching some Breaking Bad.. Talk about how I missed watching this show. Just great stuff.. Tough to punt the last week in February. This time of the year doesn't usually producer all rainers. Usually you'll get something on the front end or back end. None of these waves are pulling any real cold behind them. Hopefully we get a legit front to come down on the 28th/29th and that may set something decent up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.