showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I know what your looking at, and having that weekend storm bomb out and pull even more cold down cant possibly hurt, but I am not sure its the end all that youre making it. If you look at the 6z GFS, it has the high in almost the same spot as the NAM regardless of that first wave being weak. It gets plenty of cold in ahead of the storm. I think people are still stuck in the frame of mind that we were trying to get cold in as the storm came up like what was being shown a few days ago. Things have shifted and a nice little high comes down ahead of the storm now. That is on all guidance. The problem isnt not having cold in front anymore, now its the evolution of the system. A few days ago we had a two wave system. Wave one was weak and ran out ahead, then wave two was the one to dig in and amplify. That is important because it gave the trough coming in more time to advance east and get a good track. The trend now is for wave one to amplify and part of wave two phases into it, and that allows it to cut way west since the trough axis is still back over the ohio valley at that time. If wave one is the main player I don't think we have any chance at all no matter how much cold comes in behind the sunday system. Its not an arctic high, and whatever cold comes down will get eradicated fast as the flow backs out of the southeast ahead of the trough if a system is amplifying and cutting up west. Look at the 6z GFS at one point before the storm it gets the 850 line down to the NC border, then 12 hours later its near cleveland. The trend we need is for that first wave to be weaker and slide out and then get the second system to dig in and bomb along the coast or for the second to act as a kicker and push the first wave east, if they phase its over. Good read. I was about to make a somewhat similar post but you ninja'd me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Good luck to all of them. Who the heck is Rayno. Whenever I hear the name I flash to Drano though I don't know him and he might be a great forecaster for all I know. For you and me snow is a long shot, maybe not quite lottery long shot but the probability is pretty low. He's accuwx.. seems decent but I don't really follow him so who knows. I'm definitely not expecting much if anything IMBY other than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS says rain and boring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I know what your looking at, and having that weekend storm bomb out and pull even more cold down cant possibly hurt, but I am not sure its the end all that youre making it. If you look at the 6z GFS, it has the high in almost the same spot as the NAM regardless of that first wave being weak. It gets plenty of cold in ahead of the storm. I think people are still stuck in the frame of mind that we were trying to get cold in as the storm came up like what was being shown a few days ago. Things have shifted and a nice little high comes down ahead of the storm now. That is on all guidance. The problem isnt not having cold in front anymore, now its the evolution of the system. A few days ago we had a two wave system. Wave one was weak and ran out ahead, then wave two was the one to dig in and amplify. That is important because it gave the trough coming in more time to advance east and get a good track. The trend now is for wave one to amplify and part of wave two phases into it, and that allows it to cut way west since the trough axis is still back over the ohio valley at that time. If wave one is the main player I don't think we have any chance at all no matter how much cold comes in behind the sunday system. Its not an arctic high, and whatever cold comes down will get eradicated fast as the flow backs out of the southeast ahead of the trough if a system is amplifying and cutting up west. Look at the 6z GFS at one point before the storm it gets the 850 line down to the NC border, then 12 hours later its near cleveland. The trend we need is for that first wave to be weaker and slide out and then get the second system to dig in and bomb along the coast or for the second to act as a kicker and push the first wave east, if they phase its over. I try to keep things simple. If the storm is weak, we are screwed. If it's stronger, we have a lesser chance. IMHO, we're too far out to get into the details that will change next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 He's accuwx.. seems decent but I don't really follow him so who knows. I'm definitely not expecting much if anything IMBY other than rain. Now that you've said this I can perhaps take my fork out again without people impaling me with it. It seems to me like even if we get the perfect track/colder solution like the Euro showed at 12z yesterday us DC folk are still very marginal, and we all know how well inside the beltway does marginal recently. Of course it's possible that we'll get the perfect track and it'll trend colder towards gametime but since the models are all over the place that solution isn't likely. I guess I'll leave my fork aside for now due to the reaction yesterday and not totally give up, but like Ian, I'm not expecting much inside the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's a marginal event even if we get everything to go our (I95 crew) way. We all understand that, but since there's nothing else to track, we're all here pulling for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS says rain and boring! Not for everybody..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I try to keep things simple. Damn.. I really wanted to read another novel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Damn.. I really wanted to read another novel Aren't we only 5-6 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Not for everybody..... Not sure you get that much. There is some snow in there for higher elevations. But I think higher is the key. Not sure your elevation.. a few inches maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Aren't we only 5-6 days out? that's what I thought...if nothing else this run removed the Chi-town cutter...that keeps things alive for a bit..but still cold air hard to come by so maybe get the fork out of the drawer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Now that you've said this I can perhaps take my fork out again without people impaling me with it. It seems to me like even if we get the perfect track/colder solution like the Euro showed at 12z yesterday us DC folk are still very marginal, and we all know how well inside the beltway does marginal recently. Of course it's possible that we'll get the perfect track and it'll trend colder towards gametime but since the models are all over the place that solution isn't likely. I guess I'll leave my fork aside for now due to the reaction yesterday and not totally give up, but like Ian, I'm not expecting much inside the beltway. Probably dumb to totally write it off given the Euro has been rather persistent outside a run or two past few days on the coastal idea vs inland. But the setup is still pretty not great for I95.. not sure what we can do to fix that. I'd favor a track either right along the shore or inland to the mtns at this point. Even the east one of that solution range doesn't do us a ton of good. SFC high position is perhaps slightly better than the inland low this week but there's a lot less cold air to start with. Still could see some front end I suppose. I'd be kind of surprised if this ended up a real snow event for those in the coastal plain and piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Not sure you get that much. There is some snow in there for higher elevations. But I think higher is the key. Not sure your elevation.. a few inches maybe? The gfs shows in the 4-5 range. Is the gfs right? No way to know. It's less than the Euro showed. Is the Euro right? No way to know. It's all just talk about the latest model to run. Para gfs is a much more inland version of its prior 0z self, but its a more eastern version, less cutter version, than the 6z reg gfs. It's all pretty clear now.........we just can't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS looks too warm especially if we start with a high to the north. I keep looking at the GFS run to run and something looks off. Solutions showing a west cutter are off as well. I think a coastal is more probable and models will come into better consistency by Sunday. I wouldn't write this one off just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Probably dumb to totally write it off given the Euro has been rather persistent outside a run or two past few days on the coastal idea vs inland. But the setup is still pretty not great for I95.. not sure what we can do to fix that. I'd favor a track either right along the shore or inland to the mtns at this point. Even the east one of that solution range doesn't do us a ton of good. SFC high position is perhaps slightly better than the inland low this week but there's a lot less cold air to start with. Still could see some front end I suppose. I'd be kind of surprised if this ended up a real snow event for those in the coastal plain and piedmont. That's the biggest issue IMO. It's a better system early than Monday was, but there just isn't that great airmass that we had then. Monday would have been great if it had been as wet in the beginning as this one looks to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 UKMET is a GL cutter with a track west of the apps. Pretty amazing spread between it and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 My expectations for the first week of March are tempered by the lack of qpf on the ensembles. I don't have access to the tools some of you have, but the GEFS and GEFS look like most systems would give us well less than 1" of qpf, whether it falls as rain or snow. We could get a nice moderate event, but I don't see much of a signal in the ensembles for something more. trough axis shifts a little east for our ideal so it may get dry for a week but the eps and ggem imply it starts to pull back and shift into the south toward day 13-15. If they continued I would bet the eps would show an uptick in snow week 3. It's a ways out but fits how this type of stable epo AO combo pattern evolves usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 UKMET is a GL cutter with a track west of the apps. Pretty amazing spread between it and the GFS. Wasn't it the one that held on to a coastal idea last weekend when all the others went west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The gfs shows in the 4-5 range. Is the gfs right? No way to know. It's less than the Euro showed. Is the Euro right? No way to know. It's all just talk about the latest model to run. Para gfs is a much more inland version of its prior 0z self, but its a more eastern version, less cutter version, than the 6z reg gfs. It's all pretty clear now.........we just can't know. I am riding models too closely. But unless I see coastal tracks firm up, and a better representation of cold being in place and stuck, I am favoring rain for most to be the dominant. Clarity or saying it will or won't snow in your area is a definite hard call. If I were leaning I would lean towards your area and the mountains getting close to warning criteria snow. Beyond immediate higher Piedmont and mountains is living on a wishcast for now (I think)! I have been thinking this way, and then the Euro 12Z runs make me doubt! LOL! And 0Z was not bad out your way or mine. I-95 folks probably have th least.... I am adding no real value here so I will stop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS looks too warm especially if we start with a high to the north. I keep looking at the GFS run to run and something looks off. Solutions showing a west cutter are off as well. I think a coastal is more probable and models will come into better consistency by Sunday. I wouldn't write this one off just yet. I love this guy! On a more serious note, if I recall, 5-6 days prior to our previous mixed bag even, models (mainly gfs) had some similar issues keying-in on which wave to sink it's teeth in to. I believe that was one of the reasons the gfs had some fairly significant run-to-run swings... It couldn't place the right emPHAsis on the right syLLAble Wouldn't surprise me based on the current atmospheric setup if this system took a similar track. Not an all out cutter but something that also isn't on the coast. Unfortunately we don't have a nice antecedent artic air mass this go around... to give us a few solid hours of pretty looking dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Wasn't it the one that held on to a coastal idea last weekend when all the others went west? I don't really remember. I hear people say it scores pretty well though so I like to look at it. And for my weenie tracking purposes I was thinking of setting up some type of qualitative spreadsheet on events like this just to keep track of which models were showing what on which days so I could reference back to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I would say one of the 14 lows on the CMC is right. I'll hug the hr 168 one for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 I would say one of the 14 lows on the CMC is right. I'll hug the hr 168 one for now. Funny..............gfs was close to doing something like that but it misses se and is about 24 hours behind the canadian in spacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Why are the gfs ensembles so slow all of a sudden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Man. Talk about run to run inconsistencies. The GFS is all over the place with this event. Cut to Detroit. Run up the coast. Who the hell knows at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Why are the gfs ensembles so slow all of a sudden? They have a limp from DCTeacherman's fork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Man. Talk about run to run inconsistencies. The GFS is all over the place with this event. Cut to Detroit. Run up the coast. Who the hell knows at this point? in about 45 minutes we will find out who knows. Good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 They have a limp from DCTeacherman's fork. We need a like button! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 They have a limp from DCTeacherman's fork. So, he forked 'em up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Man. Talk about run to run inconsistencies. The GFS is all over the place with this event. Cut to Detroit. Run up the coast. Who the hell knows at this point? Wasn't its 6z run the only real outlier to what it had been showing for the past 36 hours or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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