BristowWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I was reading some of our December posts where things looked so bleak it was beyond sad. If winter ended tomorrow without a flake we are way ahead of where most of us thought we would be. Many posts about a snowless winter...most made by me. Point is we should all smile that this winter was salvaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Just go with the snowiest solution for your back yard. Sooner or later it'll work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Just go with the snowiest solution for your back yard. Sooner or later it'll work. Even if it takes until next winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 After picking apart the weeklies yea what bob said, wow it gets better each week right to the end. My only complaint would be the best look is March 7-14 and that is starting to push the limits of when we can realistically hope to do well. Won't be boring that's for sure. I think higher elevations of Carroll can pull off a 9-12 incher fairly easily through about March 15 from a climo standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think higher elevations of Carroll can pull off a 9-12 incher fairly easily through about March 15 from a climo standpoint. Any location in the MA can do that if the conditions are right. After hitting 73F on Christmas I realized that anything is possible even in winter. Yes you have a better chance but we are all fair game for climo extreme events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Any location in the MA can do that if the conditions are right. After hitting 73F on Christmas I realized that anything is possible even in winter. Yes you have a better chance but we are all fair game for climo extreme events. Key words, fairly easily, I am not sure the same can be said closer into baltimore, for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think higher elevations of Carroll can pull off a 9-12 incher fairly easily through about March 15 from a climo standpoint. Since 1993 most areas in Carroll County have seen almost 20 events that were 4 inches or greater during the month of March. Many of those of which were after March 10th. In that same 22 year period there have been countless smaller events between 1 and 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think higher elevations of Carroll can pull off a 9-12 incher fairly easily through about March 15 from a climo standpoint. I agree for the usual elevated areas including out here. I love snow. But by March 15th I am usually ready for Spring anyways. With the long term look on the models it could be a late spring this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Key words, fairly easily, I am not sure the same can be said closer into baltimore, for instance. I know. You are right. Your location is favored but some of the extremes we have seen lately makes me question simple climo. I know it all factors in to the greater 30 year average but sometimes it still makes me scratch my head and wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nam intensifies the system on Sunday resulting in a real surge of cold air into our area with a strong nw flow from the Lakes. Strap yourselves down for some eye popping progs for next week if the other models follow suit. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160219+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think higher elevations of Carroll can pull off a 9-12 incher fairly easily through about March 15 from a climo standpoint. maybe later then that here. Two of westminsters biggest snows ever came in late March. 30" in 1958 and 32" 1942. There were also numerous 8-12" hits in March over the years but they seemed much more frequent in the past then more recently, last few years excluded. These things run in cycles though and this type of pattern in March is pretty rare so I think our area specifically has all of March as a window if the pattern is good. 95 starts to get rough after March 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kat Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nam intensifies the system on Sunday resulting in a real surge of cold air into our area with a strong nw flow from the Lakes. Strap yourselves down for some eye popping progs for next week if the other models follow suit. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160219+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Nice snowstorm north of the mason Dixon too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nam intensifies the system on Sunday resulting in a real surge of cold air into our area with a strong nw flow from the Lakes. Strap yourselves down for some eye popping progs for next week if the other models follow suit. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160219+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model That's step one. Get the cold in better. Then we have more wiggle room to root for a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's step one. Get the cold in better. Then we have more wiggle room to root for a stronger system.Yep, and when I said eye popping I meant models would start advertising a colder and snowier storm chance. That 1st storm will hopefully become our surrogate 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That Sunday thing keeps trending south and that may get interesting here. Forget next week models haven't resolved this weekend yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That Sunday thing keeps trending south and that may get interesting here. Forget next week models haven't resolved this weekend yet.That didn't really seriously cross my mind down here, but you could probably see pity flakes, at least, if the nam's 0z run is close to being right. But the strength of the first storm already started illiciting fears of suppression with the Wednesday event. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yep, and when I said eye popping I meant models would start advertising a colder and snowier storm chance. That 1st storm will hopefully become our surrogate 50/50. I have little confidence in any solution right now with so much going on. But assuming the coming advertised pattern verifies, I expect once models see it better we will begin to get some crazy op runs in a good way. I don't know which vort it will be but build the pattern being shown and the threats will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 00Z GFS definitely colder over the eastern US through 102 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 that cold high is moving east at the speed of light this run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS is a disorganized mess of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The GFS is just much faster to bring the low up the coast, doesn't let any type of cold air build in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The trough location on the GFS vs. EURO @ 144 vs 156 hours is not even close. One of them is going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The GFS is just much faster to bring the low up the coast, doesn't let any type of cold air build in. Brings cold air in quicker and, as a result, out quicker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS trended further away from the euro with the Hudsons bay PV. Has it even further southwest this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Sheesh.. gfs holding its ground. It's interesting.. Both euro and gfs have stayed pretty firmly on their side.. Will probably see the caving trend sooner rather than later (next 2-4 cycles). Hard not to give the euro twins the upper hand though at this range. Both quite possible I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 too much chaos right now with this fast flow. probably gonna have to get it inside 72 hours for clarity. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Will be interesting to see how the Sunday/Monday clipper plays out. NAM and EURO seem to be on the same page with stronger low solution. GFS weaker and south. Wondering if GFS trends this way and results in a more euro like solution for us next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 00z GGEM brings the storm out as two waves that are not even close to snowstorms. Not a good start to the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol uk 144 is 983 over Pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The last four gfs cycles I've seen one trend and one non-trend. The trend is for precip to arrive sooner on each run. The non-trend is the high pressure continuing to sit in a not ideal spot, over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. We want that thing sitting closer to Quebec City during that point of development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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