BristowWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Paste job... I like those the thing I like most is the fact that the heaviest stuff is SE of most of us...gives us room for a north shift. that is better than hoping for a south trend but its early so I have my fork in hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I think wxbell as long as the sfc is less than 50 it is snow on their maps... At least in this case it's 33-34 DC-east through the bulk of the precip. Not a bad run at all honestly. I'm interested in the ensembles to see which direction they went. GEFS was unchanged with an equal mix of good and bad the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 At least in this case it's 33-34 DC-east through the bulk of the precip. Not a bad run at all honestly. I'm interested in the ensembles to see which direction they went. GEFS was unchanged with an equal mix of good and bad the last 3 runs. this run is much better imby than yesterday's 12Z per soundings, yesterday's run was a lot of sleet, as I suspected since thicknesses were running 544 today they peak at 541 and drop into the upper 530's surface temp at 0Z Thursday is .2C with more precip to fall (waiting on the next 6-hr. panel) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 this run is much better imby than yesterday's 12Z per soundings, yesterday's run was a lot of sleet, as I suspected since thicknesses were running 544 today they peak at 541 and drop into the upper 530's surface temp at 0Z Thursday is .2C with more precip to fall (waiting on the next 6-hr. panel) Track was much better for marginal cold. Running through central NC is bad unless we have cold pressing. It was a good run all the way around. Only 13 more to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Don't like the trend. You realize where the euro is going right? We have gone from over 2" accum precip through next Wed to about 0.7 and about 0.2 of that falls before the "storm" ever starts. We will be able to take solace in the fact that it will be cold enough for snow. This is only the Euro version of events. Could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Track was much better for marginal cold. Running through central NC is bad unless we have cold pressing. It was a good run all the way around. Only 13 more to go! Perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 My access to the Euro is via Accuweather Professional and go figure something went wrong with receiving the data because it stops after 138 hours. I can't see anything other than something appearing to develop down in the southeast US. It looks cold enough at 850 here in DC to support snow, but again I can't see anything beyond 138 to get a sense of how everything evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You realize where the euro is going right? We have gone from over 2" accum precip through next Wed to about 0.7 and about 0.2 of that falls before the "storm" ever starts. We will be able to take solace in the fact that it will be cold enough for snow. This is only the Euro version of events. Could be wrong. Oh, I see where this is heading. The same direction that our last 2 threats headed. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Anyone have a list of the times the models are released? I know when the GFS and Euro Ops are released, but can't remember when the para or the ensembles are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Anyone have a list of the times the models are released? I know when the GFS and Euro Ops are released, but can't remember when the para or the ensembles are. Euro Ensembles are around 315 or so if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 My access to the Euro is via Accuweather Professional and go figure something went wrong with receiving the data because it stops after 138 hours. I can't see anything other than something appearing to develop down in the southeast US. It looks cold enough at 850 here in DC to support snow, but again I can't see anything beyond 138 to get a sense of how everything evolves. 850's are fine, but the surface temps are 33-34 basically. Plenty of time to go either way. FWIW, the WxBell maps give DC 9" and the Accuwx maps give you around the same, maybe 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I just sold my snowblower a few hours ago on eBay upon DCT's analysis. Guess I might need to get another one. Don't bother.. sun angle is all you need this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Wait, Euro is all snow? You already gave up on this so you shouldn't worry about it. That's what happens when you say "next" this far in advance. If it does snow then you shouldn't get to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 JMA has a weak 1008 low of coast of NC. That seems to be the trend today. Weaker lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro ens are a little warmer @ 850 but overall similar to 0z. Just noise probably. Mix of hits/misses/grazes. Nothing new was gained from 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Much better than yesterday's EURO at 12 UT but living on the edge east of town. Tuesday night start helps with surface temperatures, which remain 33/34 throughout event. 850 temperatures beginning just below freezing, rising to freezing, and then plummeting Wednesday afternoon. 0.87" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro ens are a little warmer @ 850 but overall similar to 0z. Just noise probably. Mix of hits/misses/grazes. Nothing new was gained from 12z suite. i was looking for a duplicate of the jan 22-23 storm so from that sense...its been a disappointing day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Good discussion by LWX this afternoon - LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW A VAGUE CONSENSUS ON THEEVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTING THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THEMIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.OVERALL...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS THE SAME WITH AN AMPLIFYINGRIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THEEASTERN CONUS. THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AS IT USUALLY IS...EVENMORE SO THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THE SUN ANGLE GETS HIGHER AND BOUNDARYLAYER TEMPS BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE. 12Z GEFS/CANADIAN AND 00Z ECENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE ON LOW TRACK BUT STILL HAVE SUBSTANTIALSPREAD...THOUGH BETTER CLUSTERING THAN 24 HOURS AGO. 12Z OPERECMWF/CMC/GFS ARE CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS LENDING A MODESTINCREASE IN CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL LOW TRACK. IT IS NOT LIKELY TOTRACK INLAND DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WHICH FAVORS AN AMPLIFIEDBUT PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE AT 500 MB...BUT THE STORM LIKELY WILLNOT BE ABLE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ALTOGETHER DUE TO STRONG RIDGINGOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.AN INCREASINGLY POSITIVE PNA WITH A NEUTRAL AND NEGATIVELY TRENDINGAO AND MODESTLY POSITIVE NAO TRENDING SLIGHTLY IN A NEGATIVEDIRECTION SUGGEST COLD AIR WILL TEND TO BE MOVING IN AS THE STORMTAKES SHAPE RATHER THAN BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE STORM...WHICH ADDSUNCERTAINTY TO PTYPE.TALLYING ALL THE MEMBERS FROM ALL THE ENSEMBLES...ABOUT 30 PERCENTHAVE A SIGNAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF I-95...WITHSLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WHICH ISCLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED/COOLER. PTYPE WILL LIKELY BE A BIG ISSUEFROM THE METROS SOUTH AND EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. STILL A LOT OFTIME FOR THINGS TO WAVER. OF NOTE...THE 12Z UKMET IS MUCH MOREMERIDIONAL BY 12Z WED WITH A CLOSED LOW DEEPENING OVER CENTRALTENNESSEE. THOUGH THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION IT CANNOT BECOMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...AND LENDS TO A STILL UNCERTAIN FORECAST ATTHIS TIME RANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 12z para gfs looks fairly similar to the euro solution. It does seem like a coastal track is coming into some focus now. Hopefully we're just discussing temps soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 So they are basically saying .... "We just can't know" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 So they are basically saying .... "We just can't know" No, they are unequivocally saying......"We just can't know" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 12z para gfs looks fairly similar to the euro solution. It does seem like a coastal track is coming into some focus now. Hopefully we're just discussing temps soon... I'd be happy just discussing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 No, they are unequivocally saying......"We just can't know" Ahh...I see now. Thanks Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 So they are basically saying .... "We just can't know" I think their discussion can be summed up thusly: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'd be happy just discussing temps. Then you'll be a little encouraged by what the NAM at 84 hours is showing. <no cracks > http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160218+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160218+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 So they are basically saying .... "We just can't know" I disagree. That's very positive technicalities they are trying to nail at this range and I'm impressed. They are already saying a cutter and ots are unlikely. That's huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Same old story. Can look at each model run until the cows come home. In this case, "cows coming home" may mean "Monday". If we're lucky. Until then, a roller coaster ride from run-to-run. Hopes up, hopes crushed, hopes renewed. Rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Latest Bernie Rayno video: Thinks it's colder than previously modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro ens are a little warmer @ 850 but overall similar to 0z. Just noise probably. Mix of hits/misses/grazes. Nothing new was gained from 12z suite. You mentioned this in your follow on post, but I think the good step today was that all the solutions went to a coastal low with an earlier transfer and lost the inland runner look. I think we're in a marginal temp situation regardless, but a coastal low maximizes what cold air is available and gives us out best shot at a snowy solution near the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Looking over the 12z runs, a couple of things stood out. 850 temps for DC were generally down from 00z for the Euro, GFS, and GGEM (dashed lines are the 00z runs, solid are the 12z runs). Also the GGEM control run was west of most ensemble members, suggesting the GGEM will probably tick east. Edit: Looking more closely at it, it appears that there is a batch that cuts well inland as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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