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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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Sorry for a basic question here, but what is stopping that low from coming up the coast on day 10 of the Euro? Isn't how Feb 6 evolved around here?

 

Nasty confluence with the upper level low (pv) to the NE. Blocks anything from turning the corner. Me personally...I would much rather see this than something trying to punch into Ohio at long range. I doubt that kind of suppression. It could happen but we almost always see things "less than advertised" when it comes to cold and suppression. 

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Nasty confluence with the upper level low (pv) to the NE. Blocks anything from turning the corner. Me personally...I would much rather see this than something trying to punch into Ohio at long range. I doubt that kind of suppression. It could happen but we almost always see things "less than advertised" when it comes to cold and suppression. 

 

 

Thanks. I agree with your sentiment. Plus 2" of cold, dry, powder from a suppressed storm is better than 3" of slop before a change to rain. ;)

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Nasty confluence with the upper level low (pv) to the NE. Blocks anything from turning the corner. Me personally...I would much rather see this than something trying to punch into Ohio at long range. I doubt that kind of suppression. It could happen but we almost always see things "less than advertised" when it comes to cold and suppression. 

I agree on the confluence. Much rather risk suppression than something cutting west. Great look at range.

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Nasty confluence with the upper level low (pv) to the NE. Blocks anything from turning the corner. Me personally...I would much rather see this than something trying to punch into Ohio at long range. I doubt that kind of suppression. It could happen but we almost always see things "less than advertised" when it comes to cold and suppression.

Those pv squashers over Quebec are almost always overdone.

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Anyone killing off this threat is crazy. People did the same thing day 9-10 with the blizzard after it showed potential in the d11-15 range and became a little muddy for a day or two around day 9/10. The pattern still argues that sometging should happen. Arctic air in plave with what has been a very active str of vorts coming across. If anything it's been too active more often then not. Let's see what models lock into when it gets to a week out.

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Anyone killing off this threat is crazy. People did the same thing day 9-10 with the blizzard after it showed potential in the d11-15 range and became a little muddy for a day or two around day 9/10. The pattern still argues that sometging should happen. Arctic air in plave with what has been a very active str of vorts coming across. If anything it's been too active more often then not. Let's see what models lock into when it gets to a week out.

This is why I said who cares what the gfs says now and somebody said they didn't understand. Signal is there. That's all we can watch for now. Who thinks there's gonna be 40 straights runs of the same thing to the ultimate solution? I'll start looking into particulars on Tuesday.

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True. One run showing a relative lack of moisture means we shouldn't expect anything.

There is still  some low level moisture return.

The point I was trying for  is that Northwesterly flow  from TX-FL at the upper levels is generally not what you see 36hrs in advance of Mid Atlantic snowstorms. There are probably a few exceptions, and there is always the possibility the storm is delayed a couple days.

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Not muxh snow down south on the eps thru day 12 so operational may be on crack. But Bob probably had a better read on them.

 

 

Not bob, but looks like a mean of .6" of precipitation from the day 9 to day 12 on the EPS, so a good signal for a storm there. Snowfall is about 3" for that period for DC, so looks like some mixed members. Overall, good storm for something. And also looks like OP was on crack with the suppressed thing, I saw maybe one member with snow in N Alabama and Mississipi on par with the OP.

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016020700/gfs_z500_vort_us_41.png

that is a pretty decent look. some slight adjustments and boom.

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Yes. Day 10 looks good. As it usually does. Just like 10 day yesterday looked good. Day 10 tomorrow will look good too. The jury is out on a rockin' Feb in my court.

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Yes. Day 10 looks good. As it usually does. Just like 10 day yesterday looked good. Day 10 tomorrow will look good too. The jury is out on a rockin' Feb in my court.

well contrary to popular opinion there isnt always a ten day pattern that looks good so at least we have something to watch over the coming week.

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12z Euro and para Euro analogs combined for 6-10 (Feb 14 12z centered) are quite nice. EPS/para EPS don't hold it after very long but 18z GEFS moved that direction as well in the longer range. This is about when I've expected a more stable blocking regime to return. I think if we end up getting a decent look it might play out like last time where at first it seems transient before they catch on it's not going to disappear quick.  Just hasn't been enough of a staple yet to believe in it as real but the ensemble support today is probably the most encouraging sign so far IMO. 

 

Smn9nOA.gif

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