MacintoshPro Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sorry for a basic question here, but what is stopping that low from coming up the coast on day 10 of the Euro? Isn't how Feb 6 evolved around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro @240 has a nice block, albeit east-based, and a vortex in the vicinity of NF underneath. Ensembles will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sorry for a basic question here, but what is stopping that low from coming up the coast on day 10 of the Euro? Isn't how Feb 6 evolved around here? Nasty confluence with the upper level low (pv) to the NE. Blocks anything from turning the corner. Me personally...I would much rather see this than something trying to punch into Ohio at long range. I doubt that kind of suppression. It could happen but we almost always see things "less than advertised" when it comes to cold and suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nasty confluence with the upper level low (pv) to the NE. Blocks anything from turning the corner. Me personally...I would much rather see this than something trying to punch into Ohio at long range. I doubt that kind of suppression. It could happen but we almost always see things "less than advertised" when it comes to cold and suppression. Thanks. I agree with your sentiment. Plus 2" of cold, dry, powder from a suppressed storm is better than 3" of slop before a change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Surprised Highzenberg isn't on top of this... With one of those 1996 style euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nasty confluence with the upper level low (pv) to the NE. Blocks anything from turning the corner. Me personally...I would much rather see this than something trying to punch into Ohio at long range. I doubt that kind of suppression. It could happen but we almost always see things "less than advertised" when it comes to cold and suppression. I agree on the confluence. Much rather risk suppression than something cutting west. Great look at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Nasty confluence with the upper level low (pv) to the NE. Blocks anything from turning the corner. Me personally...I would much rather see this than something trying to punch into Ohio at long range. I doubt that kind of suppression. It could happen but we almost always see things "less than advertised" when it comes to cold and suppression. Those pv squashers over Quebec are almost always overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 + height anomoly over Texas and NW flow over the GOM at 192hrs is preventing any good moisture return. Another reason not to get your hopes up too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Anyone killing off this threat is crazy. People did the same thing day 9-10 with the blizzard after it showed potential in the d11-15 range and became a little muddy for a day or two around day 9/10. The pattern still argues that sometging should happen. Arctic air in plave with what has been a very active str of vorts coming across. If anything it's been too active more often then not. Let's see what models lock into when it gets to a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 + height anomoly over Texas and NW flow over the GOM at 192hrs is preventing any good moisture return. Another reason not to get your hopes up too high. True. One run showing a relative lack of moisture means we shouldn't expect anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 i will take a blend of the gfs and euro at this range which would put us in the sweet spot... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Anyone killing off this threat is crazy. People did the same thing day 9-10 with the blizzard after it showed potential in the d11-15 range and became a little muddy for a day or two around day 9/10. The pattern still argues that sometging should happen. Arctic air in plave with what has been a very active str of vorts coming across. If anything it's been too active more often then not. Let's see what models lock into when it gets to a week out. This is why I said who cares what the gfs says now and somebody said they didn't understand. Signal is there. That's all we can watch for now. Who thinks there's gonna be 40 straights runs of the same thing to the ultimate solution? I'll start looking into particulars on Tuesday. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 True. One run showing a relative lack of moisture means we shouldn't expect anything.He is awfulSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 True. One run showing a relative lack of moisture means we shouldn't expect anything. There is still some low level moisture return. The point I was trying for is that Northwesterly flow from TX-FL at the upper levels is generally not what you see 36hrs in advance of Mid Atlantic snowstorms. There are probably a few exceptions, and there is always the possibility the storm is delayed a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not muxh snow down south on the eps thru day 12 so operational may be on crack. But Bob probably had a better read on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not muxh snow down south on the eps thru day 12 so operational may be on crack. But Bob probably had a better read on them. Not bob, but looks like a mean of .6" of precipitation from the day 9 to day 12 on the EPS, so a good signal for a storm there. Snowfall is about 3" for that period for DC, so looks like some mixed members. Overall, good storm for something. And also looks like OP was on crack with the suppressed thing, I saw maybe one member with snow in N Alabama and Mississipi on par with the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not muxh snow down south on the eps thru day 12 so operational may be on crack. But Bob probably had a better read on them. EPS is hella snowy through day 12 totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 EPS is hella snowy through day 12 totals. Looks like a mean of 6" at DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Per EPS, there is a relaxation of the ridge out west around the 20th resulting in a milder zonal pattern, but it looks like it might be brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Looks like a mean of 6" at DC.That includes 3" from Monday into Tuesday and we know that's reasonably unlikely. But I guess we'll see on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Per EPS, there is a relaxation of the ridge out west around the 20th resulting in a milder zonal pattern, but it looks like it might be brief. The cold hasn't happened yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The cold hasn't happened yet Okaay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12zgfs para sides with the euro suppression idea for the 15-17 deal but has a very active and cold run right thru the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12zgfs para sides with the euro suppression idea for the 15-17 deal but has a very active and cold run right thru the end. I like the pattern on the 12z GFS Para it keeps the PNA and a steady train of cold highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 GFS doesn't get us out of the 20s Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016020700/gfs_z500_vort_us_41.png that is a pretty decent look. some slight adjustments and boom. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016020700/gfs_z500_vort_us_41.png that is a pretty decent look. some slight adjustments and boom. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes. Day 10 looks good. As it usually does. Just like 10 day yesterday looked good. Day 10 tomorrow will look good too. The jury is out on a rockin' Feb in my court. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yes. Day 10 looks good. As it usually does. Just like 10 day yesterday looked good. Day 10 tomorrow will look good too. The jury is out on a rockin' Feb in my court. well contrary to popular opinion there isnt always a ten day pattern that looks good so at least we have something to watch over the coming week. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 12z Euro and para Euro analogs combined for 6-10 (Feb 14 12z centered) are quite nice. EPS/para EPS don't hold it after very long but 18z GEFS moved that direction as well in the longer range. This is about when I've expected a more stable blocking regime to return. I think if we end up getting a decent look it might play out like last time where at first it seems transient before they catch on it's not going to disappear quick. Just hasn't been enough of a staple yet to believe in it as real but the ensemble support today is probably the most encouraging sign so far IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Euro ens that is not ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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