BristowWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I think you guys are in the game for some accumulating snow, but yeah the WV ridges probably have the best shot. Looks like the cities can just about stick a fork in this one. Early to stick a fork in it don't you think with one camp in near Tennessee and the other OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Early to stick a fork in it don't you think with one camp in near Tennessee and the other OTS LOL.......yeah. Calling it over with 5+ days to go is a questionable call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GEFS has improved in general the last 3 runs with the track with the vast majority taking a coastal track and fewer running inland. Member snowfall remains about the same. A lot of spread and complicated wave progression. I don't think we know any more right now than we did 12 hours ago. We know the terms are going to be borderline but we're awful far from definitive calls and I don't think ops are giving us a clear picture at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 LOL.......yeah. Calling it over with 5+ days to go is a questionable call. I agree with you but I'm just not very optimistic about the chances for I-95. Longwave pattern isn't good for us. Hopefully the EURO says otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 LOL.......yeah. Calling it over with 5+ days to go is a questionable call. Put a fork in it but the fork could be a good tool to measure snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Put a fork in it but the fork could be a good tool to measure snow. gefslowloc2.JPG Yeah. I was looking at those and I think an off shore miss is more likely that a west cutter. Problem is, well there are two, is the gefs even close to being correct, and even with a nice coastal track will we be cold enough. We'll have a better idea in about 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I think you guys are in the game for some accumulating snow, but yeah the WV ridges probably have the best shot. Looks like the cities can just about stick a fork in this one. Somewhat early to stick a fork in. Haven't we learned anything this year with the models and when we can start to believe in them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Somewhat early to stick a fork in. Haven't we learned anything this year with the models and when we can start to believe in them? Yeah I agree that comment was premature, but these thread the needles without cold air just don't inspire confidence for me inside the Beltway. You guys are right though, definitely can't officially declare it dead at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I think you guys are in the game for some accumulating snow, but yeah the WV ridges probably have the best shot. Looks like the cities can just about stick a fork in this one. Why would you say this 6 days out? It does look weighted toward wet vs white, but we're still in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Yeah I agree that comment was premature, but these thread the needles without cold air just don't inspire confidence for me inside the Beltway. You guys are right though, definitely can't officially declare it dead at this range. That's what makes this whole thing fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Euro is way colder then other guidance. 114 850 line is across northern NC. Let's see if it can get the storm to come up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Wave one looks pretty crushed. Some light snow in northern NC and extreme southern va. Let's see if it can develop the second vort diving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 132 the trough starting to amp up. General area of low pressure over the southeast with the second vort digging in. It may try to bring something up. Cold isn't a problem. 850 down through Norfolk to Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 144 low along outer banks. Precip moving in. But I was wrong on the cold. Too much ridging the warm backs in from the east. 850 running along 95 as precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 144 low along outer banks. Precip moving in. But I was wrong on the cold. Too much ridging the warm backs in from the east. 850 running along 95 as precip moves in. At this point, how does it compare to the 0z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 150 is nice. Low east of outer banks. 850 retreats east to the bay. Moderate snow Mason Dixon south. Heavy bwi south and west to the spine of the apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 At this point, how does it compare to the 0z EURO?Less amped colder east. Less precip but it's good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 At this point, how does it compare to the 0z EURO? Off the coast and weaker compared to mid 990's over central NC last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 168 is very nice.. good snows 95 and west edit- cookies were loading up and older run, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Less amped colder east. Less precip but it's good enough. Shouldn't we put a fork in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I get fringed but dc and Balt will like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 At this point, how does it compare to the 0z EURO? Pretty big shift to the East. 0z had the low well inland in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Shouldn't we put a fork in it?Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Shouldn't we put a fork in it? LOL forced to eat my words immediately. Can I have my fork back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I get fringed but dc and Balt will like this run. it's a nice shift, but it is pretty warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 In 48 hours we've gone from a chance at a marginal temp snow event to a chance at a marginal temp snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Shouldn't we put a fork in it? If I were using that fork to measure at the major airports based on the Euro, what would they read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I get fringed but dc and Balt will like this run. sux, because you always do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Surface is a bit warm 95 east. Qpf is decent. Hard to tell with the low res maps but best guess about .75 dc to Balt. Less nw but better temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 LOL forced to eat my words immediately. Can I have my fork back? I'm just poking fun. Ops at range will drive a person nuts looking for reruns of a snow movie. We got spoiled with the blizz when the only thing struggled with was 1, 2, or 3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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