WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 It's a good period coming up. No guarantees of course but it's a nice look for more than a 15 minute thread the needle event. lol We can work with this type of general upper level circulation and it has a lot of support. Basically unanimous. I would love to have had that in early January. The para just keeps waves of precip rolling through. Nothing heavy. Only bad thing is we are walking a really tough path with ground temps this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Did you read that before posting it? Some of you!...I spelled it the way it should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I would love to have had that in early January. The para just keeps waves of precip rolling through. Nothing heavy. Only bad thing is we are walking a really tough path with ground temps this time of year. It's probably just noise in the big picture but we seem to be on a late winter heater for reasons (if there are any) way beyond my comprehension. I know we are all location specific but I'm already satisfied with this winter. Chasing 1 or 2 more that actually produce would be fun. My March 10th or so I'm always ready for warmer weather but for now I'll take anything that comes and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 My ground temps are terrible. Still rock hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I am with you on this Bob, maybe more overall snow days for the kids here in Northern Delaware in March versus this month, the way things could be potentially setting up. I also see the AO forecasts are continuing to trend downward. Very encouraging signals ahead . - NAO also by early to mid March as well. It's easy for schools in Middletown to close. All I have to do is whisper the word snow in the Appo superintendent's ear and boom, closed for two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS is having a really tough time with this wave setup. Euro is having its own troubles as well. Hopefully we start to see some run to run consistency this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 My ground temps are terrible. Still rock hard. Always. I don't expect anything different. What I was trying to say was late Feb and early March are a different animal. On Jan 10 you can get accumulating light snow during the day with a temp of 28 or so. Try that in late Feb. Not near as easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS is having a really tough time with this wave setup. Euro is having its own troubles as well. Hopefully we start to see some run to run consistency this weekend. Yeah, it's pretty bouncy. I guess we play the wait and see game again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS is having a really tough time with this wave setup. Euro is having its own troubles as well. Hopefully we start to see some run to run consistency this weekend. common theme emerging is the lack of cold air..at least for now...that GFS set up wouldn't be half bad if it were colder...but it beats the wound up apps runner so not going to complain too loudly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS is so different than yesterday! 24 hours has changed the tune from 3 to 4" to around an inch of liquid in NOVA/DC Totally different look. Interesting indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 common theme emerging is the lack of cold air..at least for now...that GFS set up wouldn't be half bad if it were colder...but it beats the wound up apps runner so not going to complain too loudly gfs is hardly a storm. Ive seen more qpf from a clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 gfs is hardly a storm. Ive seen more qpf from a clipper True. its not like the cold air is that far away but that won't cut it. of course a wound up monster would probably head west. I don't like any of this so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 True. its not like the cold air is that far away but that won't cut it. of course a wound up monster would probably head west. I don't like any of this so far. Haven't trends this year moved towards colder solutions as we get closer in time to an event? IF we can keep that track then maybe we still have a shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 gfs is hardly a storm. Ive seen more qpf from a clipper Meanwhile the EPS mean precip went up @ 0z last night compared to 12z. It's complicated and we don't do that well here very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Fantasy land GFS (>250) has a nice look with arctic air and some overrunning. Also has a beautiful blizzard like coastal toward way out in lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 shift the CMC 100 or so miles east and we might have some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Fantasy land GFS (>250) has a nice look with arctic air and some overrunning. Bowling season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 UKMET has a low over over central TN at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 UKMET has a low over over central TN at 144. That's not ideal positioning, and a little later than the others, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I could end up being completely off base but right now this is looking like a N and W of I95 and elevation event IMHO. Classic setup for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 UKMET has a low over over central TN at 144. Ugly, that would cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I could end up being completely off base but right now this is looking like a N and W of I95 and elevation event IMHO. Classic setup for it. Seems that way. The GFS/GEM camp would maybe deliver something for NW and elevation favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I could end up being completely off base but right now this is looking like a N and W of I95 and elevation event IMHO. Classic setup for it. Yeah, about 200 miles west of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Yeah, about 200 miles west of I-95. Not sure if u were serious or being sarcastic but I think elevated areas 'just' N and W will do well. 200 miles seems a little extreme. Again, just my thoughts and opinions attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Too bad no cold air nearby... GEFS mean track Day 6 is decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Not sure if u were serious or being sarcastic but I think elevated areas 'just' N and W will do well. 200 miles seems a little extreme. Again, just my thoughts and opinions attm. Yeah, I'm bitter lately and being a little extreme. Still, I don't see this storm producing anything noteworthy for us out here. Maybe further west into the higher elevations in WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Yeah, I'm bitter lately and being a little extreme. Still, I don't see this storm producing anything noteworthy for us out here. Maybe further west into the higher elevations in WV. I think you guys are in the game for some accumulating snow, but yeah the WV ridges probably have the best shot. Looks like the cities can just about stick a fork in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 I don't think there's any way that we will be able to say with any certainty until about Sunday. I know I'm just stating the obvious here. It's still fun to discuss the model runs. I think we all feel pretty good that there's going to be a storm. It's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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