33andrain Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GFS is having self esteem issues, and can't make a decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 6z gfs good track but where is snow? the second wave was the one that had a chance. Gfs squashes it putting too much into the lead wave. Actually it kind of splits the difference and neither develops. Track good but the storm never gets going. Weak low with light precip won't work in a marginal air mass late February. I count this run as a positive. It at least abandons the cutter idea. There are a lot of moving parts here, with two competing vorts close together again. The second is the one we want to be the main player. The cold not being established makes this a long shot but worth tracking. After still looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 why are you always up so early? 6z gfs looks like rain Not by choice. Wife has to get up around 3 to beat the traffic down to Fort Meade so I get up to take care of the dogs and help her get ready. Gives me some time to look over the models and boards before my day starts. Would rather spend the time later in the day doing this but most times it is too difficult except for a quick glance or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Eps shat the bed by going from a hair under 6" at 12z to 3" at 0z for the 15 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Something to keep an eye on. Some hints now of blocking near Greenland day 5 or so. That kind of came from nowhere. Might shake things up for the day 6-8 thing. Mega blocking signal day 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Eps shat the bed by going from a hair under 6" at 12z to 3" at 0z for the 15 day forecast. it's not as bad as it looks. It's still an overall upwards trend when viewed with the last 4/5 runs. Lately seems 12z jumps up then 0z backs off some. Also looking at the runs most of the difference is that we lost a couple crazy runs from 12z. Losing 2 members isn't a big deal but if they had 20-30" it sure hurts the mean. Still a good number of decent runs in the mix. Even some that hit to our southeast. I like to see the spread. That works better for us then being on the southeast edge of anything. That fails when the edges start to tighten up as the outliers fall away. Now the outliers are the Richmond storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 it's not as bad as it looks. It's still an overall upwards trend when viewed with the last 4/5 runs. Lately seems 12z jumps up then 0z backs off some. Also looking at the runs most of the difference is that we lost a couple crazy runs from 12z. Losing 2 members isn't a big deal but if they had 20-30" it sure hurts the mean. Still a good number of decent runs in the mix. Even some that hit to our southeast. I like to see the spread. That works better for us then being on the southeast edge of anything. That fails when the edges start to tighten up as the outliers fall away. Now the outliers are the Richmond storms.Well, the mean lost the day 6-7 storm which pretty much accounts for the reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Incoming day 11 on gfs. If the h5 look we've been seeing is close models are going to start showing some nice fantasy storms in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Eps shat the bed by going from a hair under 6" at 12z to 3" at 0z for the 15 day forecast. There was a slight shift on the means to the west which partially accounts for this. I think what was somewhat more concerning though was what I noticed after looking over the individual ensembles for the Euro. Didn't bother counting but the largest camp of solutions (maybe half?) ran the low over top of us or to the west. By far the smaller camp had a track suitable for us. Think the means are being skewed somewhat because quite a few show this running out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well, the mean lost the day 6-7 storm which pretty much accounts for the reduction. there is way too much going on and blocking getting established. Models are going to have issues in the day 5-8 period. As the longer range gets into view I expect to start seeing some shocked face worthy op runs soon. 6z gfs might be popping one out day 11 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Something to keep an eye on. Some hints now of blocking near Greenland day 5 or so. That kind of came from nowhere. Might shake things up for the day 6-8 thing. Mega blocking signal day 10-15 Looks like some ridging out in front of that monster N Canada vortex temporarily pokes up into Greenland. Very transient though, and not sure it would really help much given the location of the vortex and the persistently higher heights east of the Maritimes. Too bad we cant transpose those 2 features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Bad news, the EURO is phasing the N branch @ 144. older runs had that scooting out ahead to build HP behind it, this is gonna be a bad run.Ops runs are a roller coaster ride at this range. We have been down this road before. Use the ens means at this range for guidance...it is an amazing tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Very potent clipper shortwave around Missouri @ 186 hours.So we are cancelling the main low and moving on (next) to the subsequent low? You should just cancel winter at this point probably...you know, sun angle, pitchers and catchers....all that stuff ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Wow. If Justin Berk is thinking rain next week, then onward and upward to day 10+ threat. Hahaha. Says slight chance the low stills move back east. I'm still in until I'm out. ;-) #FaithInTheFail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Ops runs are a roller coaster ride at this range. We have been down this road before. Use the ens means at this range for guidance...it is an amazing tool. They can be useless too at this range especially considering the large spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 They can be useless too at this range especially considering the large spread.Skewed? Sure. Useless? I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 If Ralph would have said "ensemble median" as opposed to "ensemble mean" would you still believe them to be useless at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 I've done an interpolation of my extrapolation of the NAM ensembles and have concluded that I should just wait on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I've done an interpolation of my extrapolation of the NAM ensembles and have concluded that I should just wait on the 12z Euro.Sounds like you've done a slip shot job. You need an additional hour of study. Go ahead and no posting until you're finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Sounds like you've done a slip shot job. You need an additional hour of study. Go ahead and no posting until you're finished. The shortwave has not been sampled correctly because it is not on shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The shortwave has not been sampled correctly because it is not on shore Please tell me you are trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 it's not as bad as it looks. It's still an overall upwards trend when viewed with the last 4/5 runs. Lately seems 12z jumps up then 0z backs off some. Also looking at the runs most of the difference is that we lost a couple crazy runs from 12z. Losing 2 members isn't a big deal but if they had 20-30" it sure hurts the mean. Still a good number of decent runs in the mix. Even some that hit to our southeast. I like to see the spread. That works better for us then being on the southeast edge of anything. That fails when the edges start to tighten up as the outliers fall away. Now the outliers are the Richmond storms. Just looked at the EPS. There's a cluster of northern fringe or misses to the southeast that didn't really show up @ 12z yesterday. What a complicated setup. Even the monday wave is moving around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Please tell me you are trolling. Yes just passing time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 what the heck are the NAM ensembles? if you're talking about the SREF, that is an incorrect characterization of them. I've done an interpolation of my extrapolation of the NAM ensembles and have concluded that I should just wait on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 para gfs has a more consolidated slp once the first peice of energy gets squashed. The high in New England doesn't hold steady to maintain cold air for the metros, but the track is slightly improved over 0z/6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 At least we did not start a storm thread 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 what the heck are the NAM ensembles? if you're talking about the SREF, that is an incorrect characterization of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 The para gfs just keeps chances rolling along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The para gfs just keeps chances rolling along. It's a good period coming up. No guarantees of course but it's a nice look for more than a 15 minute thread the needle event. lol We can work with this type of general upper level circulation and it has a lot of support. Basically unanimous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It's a good period coming up. No guarantees of course but it's a nice look for more than a 15 minute thread the needle event. lol We can work with this type of general upper level circulation and it has a lot of support. Basically unanimous. I am with you on this Bob, maybe more overall snow days for the kids here in Northern Delaware in March versus this month, the way things could be potentially setting up. I also see the AO forecasts are continuing to trend downward. Very encouraging signals ahead . - NAO also by early to mid March as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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